The Road to the White House 2024

Stephen Wayne is an Emeritus Professor of Government at Georgetown University. He is a Washington insider who has written many books and articles on the presidency and presidential elections. A frequent source for journalists covering American politics, he often appears on television and radio news programs, conducts seminars for senior federal executives and international visitors, and lectures at many universities in the United States and abroad.

Part One. The Electoral Arena

Chapter 1. Presidential Selection: A Historical Overview

The Creation of the Electoral College
The Development of Nominating Systems

Congressional Caucuses
National Nominating Conventions
Popular Primaries and Caucuses


The Evolution of the General Election

Partisan Electors
Congressional Decisions
Judicial Determination
Other Close Elections


The Politics of Electoral College Voting
Summary
Where on the Web?
Exercises
Selected Readings


Chapter 2. Campaign Finance

The Rising Costs of Running for President
The Regulation of Campaign Finance

The Federal Election Campaign Act
The Buckley v. Valeo Decision
The Soft Money Loophole and Other Amendments
The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act
The Court’s Citizens United Decision


The Money Explosion

Candidate Revenues
Federal Funds
Campaign Expenditures


Money and Electoral Success
Summary
Where on the Web?
Exercises
Selected Readings


Chapter 3. The Political Environment

Turnout

The Evolution of Voting in American Elections
Comparative Turnout in Other Countries
Influences on Turnout
Turnout and Democracy
Turnout and Partisanship


The Partisan Basis of Politics

Voting Behavior
Shifts in Partisanship


The Social Basis of Politics

The New Deal Realignment
Evolving Political Coalitions: 1950–70
Electoral Coalitions: The Last Forty Years


Summary
Where on the Web?
Exercises
Selected Readings




Part Two. The Nomination

Chapter 4. Party Rules and Their Impact

Reforming the Nomination Process: Democrats Take the Initiative

Fixing the Calendar
Improving Representation
Empowering the Leadership


Republican Reforms
Legality of Party Rules
The Impact of the Rule Changes

Turnout
Representation
Party Organization and Leadership
Winners and Losers


Summary
Where on the Web?
Exercises
Selected Readings


Chapter 5. Campaigning for the Nomination

Basic Strategic Guidelines

Plan Far Ahead
Concentrate Efforts in the Early Contests
Raise and Spend Big Bucks
Gain Media Attention
Develop an Organization
Monitor Public Opinion
Design and Target a Distinctive Image and Message
Make Effective Use of Communication Technologies


Coordinating Strategy with Candidacy Status

Campaigning as Front-Runner
Campaigning as a Non-Front-Runner
Campaigning as a Pulpit Candidate


Summary
Where on the Web?
Exercises
Selected Readings


Chapter 6. The Post-Primary Campaign

The Noncompetitive Preconvention Phase

Healing Partisan Discord
Repositioning and Reprioritizing the Issues
Repairing Leadership Images
Gaining the Stature of an Incumbent
Picking the Vice Presidential Nominee
Planning for the Convention


Convention Controversies in Historical Perspective
Contemporary Conventions: Composition, Content, Communications, and Impact

Oratory
Themes
Platform
News Media Coverage
Assessing the Conventions’ Impact on the Electorate


Characteristics of the Nominees
Summary
Where on the Web?
Exercises
Selected Readings




Part Three. The General Election Campaign

Chapter 7. Strategy, Tactics, and Operations

The Evolution of Presidential Campaigns

From Porch to Train
From Rally to Radio and Television
From Art to Science: The Digital Revolution


Strategic Planning

Partisanship
Salient Issues
Leadership Imagery
Dealing with Incumbency
Building a Winning Electoral College Coalition


Strategic Execution

Organization
The Public Dimension
Field Offices
Data Analysis


Summary
Where on the Web?
Exercises
Selected Readings


Chapter 8. Media Politics

The Mass Media and Electoral Politics: An Overview

Print Media
Television
The Internet


Traditional News Coverage

Horse Race Journalism
Newsworthiness: Bad News Is “Good” News
Story Lines
Impact


Presidential Debates

History
Preparation
Impact


Campaign Advertising

Format and Tone
Emotive Content
Accuracy and Truthfulness


Digital Communication Controversies

Foreign Interference
Use and Abuse of Personal Data


Summary
Where on the Web?
Exercises
Selected Readings




Part Four. The Election: Its Meaning and Consequences

Chapter 9. Understanding Presidential Elections

Predicting Presidential Elections

Forecasting Models
Pre-election Polling
Election-Night Reporting and Analyses of Exit Polls


Interpreting the Election Results

Models of Voting Behavior
Explaining Presidential Election Results: 1952–2016


Converting Electoral Choice into Public Policy

The President’s Imprecise Mandate
Campaign Expectations and Presidential Performance
Transitioning into Office


Summary
Where on the Web?
Exercises
Selected Readings


Chapter 10. Reforming the Electoral System

Improving the Selection Process

Party Rules
Campaign Finance


Informing the Electorate

Traditional News Coverage
Digital Communications


Democratizing the Road to the White House

Closing the Participation Divide
Changing the Way Presidents Are Elected


Increasing Competitiveness for Congressional Elections
Summary
Where on the Web?
Exercises
Selected Readings




Appendix. The 2019–2020 Presidential Election Campaign