The Nexus of Naval Modernization in India and China

Through a close examination of scholarly works, government documents, and over 60 in-depth focused
interviews with experts based in India, China, Australia and the U.S. the author argues that, while strategic rivalry is not the only driver of naval modernization, it is the most compelling explanation.

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Naval modernization is an extremely expensive, time-consuming, and a relatively
rare phenomenon. Scholars have proposed various arguments to explain this
process ranging from bureaucratic politics, to nationalism, and to the security
dilemma. The Nexus of Naval Modernization in India and China demonstrates
that from 1990 until 2020, the primary driver of naval modernization resulted
from a strategic rivalry. Key to strategic rivalries is perceived threat perceptions
that cause decision makers to prepare for worst-case scenarios when trying
to decipher their enemy's behaviour. When a state believes it is threatened by
a rival's naval power it is likely to pursue its own form of naval modernization for
self-protection. Importantly, rivalries do not exist in a vacuum and are frequently
linked. This project will reveal how the interconnected nature of rivalries can
also cause naval modernization. Through a close examination of scholarly works,
government documents, and in-depth focused interviews with experts based in
India, China, Australia, and the U.S. Colley argues that while strategic rivalry is
not the only driver of naval modernization, it is the most compelling explanation.
Other arguments are frequently embedded within the strategic rivalry model
and thus are best seen as only partial drivers. This study contributes to the rivalry
research program as well as the policy and security studies literatures.