Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis

Paul R. Garvey is Chief Scientist for the Center for Acquisition and Management Sciences at The MITRE Corporation. He has extensive experience in the theory and application of risk-decision analytic methods to operations research problems in the system sciences domains. He is the author of the CRC Press books Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterprise Systems (with C. Ariel Pinto) and Analytical Methods for Risk Management. He earned an A.B. and M.Sc. in pure and applied mathematics from Boston College and Northeastern University and a Ph.D. in engineering systems risk analysis from Old Dominion University. Stephen A. Book (1941–2012) was a Distinguished Engineer in the Systems Engineering Division at the Aerospace Corporation, chief technical officer at Management Consulting and Research (MCR), and emeritus professor of mathematics at California State University, Dominguez Hills. A world-renowned cost analyst, Dr. Book produced innumerable contributions to the field and made his work accessible to professionals from a variety of academic and technical backgrounds. He earned an A.B., M.A., and Ph.D. in mathematics from Georgetown University, Cornell University, and the University of Oregon, respectively. Raymond P. Covert is the founder of Covarus LLC, a boutique consulting firm specializing in engineering and economic modeling. He has over 30 years of experience in aerospace and defense engineering and is the author of a series of books on cost and schedule estimating. He has published more than 60 technical and tutorial presentations. He earned an Sc.B. in aeronautical and astronautical engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and an M.S. in electrical engineering from Loyola Marymount University.

THEORY AND FOUNDATIONS: Uncertainty and the Role of Probability in Cost Analysis. Concepts of Probability Theory. Distributions and the Theory of Expectation. Special Distributions for Cost Uncertainty Analysis. Functions of Random Variables and Their Application to Cost Uncertainty Analysis. System Cost Uncertainty Analysis. Modeling Cost and Schedule Uncertainties: An Application of Joint Probability Theory. PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS AND APPLICATIONS: Elements of Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Review. Correlation: A Critical Consideration. Building Statistical Cost Estimating Models. Mathematics of Cost Improvement Curves. Enhanced Scenario Based Method. Cost Uncertainty Analysis Practice Points. Collected Works of Dr. Stephen A. Book. Appendices. Index.