The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures (eBook)

Foreword 6
Contents 9
Editors and Contributors 12
ch 12
1 The Twenty-First-Century Singularity in the Big History Perspective: An Overview 15
Introductory Notes 15
Placing the Current Singularity Trend into Big History Context 17
Book Organization 21
References 29
2 The Twenty-First-Century Singularity in the Big History Perspective—A Re-analysis 33
Introduction 33
Kurzweil–Modis Time Series and Mathematical Singularity 34
Panov’s Transformation 36
Modis–Kurzweil Time Series: A Mathematical Analysis 39
Exponential and Hyperbolic Patterns of Global Acceleration: A Comparison 44
Formula of Acceleration of the Global Macroevolutionary Development in the Modis–Kurzweil Time Series 44
Time Series of Panov and Modis–Kurzweil—An External Comparative Analysis 50
Panov Time Series: A Mathematical Analysis 56
Formulas of the Acceleration of Global Macroevolutionary Development in Panov and Modis–Kurzweil Series: A Comparison 58
A Striking Discovery of Heinz Von Foerster 60
On the Formula of Acceleration of the Global Evolutionary Development 62
Toward the Singularity Interpretation. The Place of the Singularity in the Big History and Global Evolution 64
Conclusion 68
Appendices 69
Appendix 1: Relationship Between the Pattern of Acceleration of the Planetary Complexity Growth and the Equation of the World Population Hyperbolic Growth 69
Appendix 2: On Some Patterns on Global Macroevolutionary Acceleration—Additional Calculations 79
References 81
3 Exploring the Singularity Concept Within Big History 90
Basic Questions 90
What Is the Definition of a Singularity? 90
What Type of Simple Model Has a Singularity Behavior? 91
What Is Driving the Rate of Change and Complexity Increase? 93
What Is the Role of Energy, Information, and Entropy? 93
Is There Substructure in the Trend Leading to the Singularity? 95
Detailed Questions 96
What Are the Potential Indicators of How the Singularity Will Behave? 96
When Might the Singularity Occur? 97
What Models and Metaphors Apply to the Singularity and Associated Transitions? 98
Why Does the Substructure Follow a Mathematical Pattern? 99
Extension Questions 101
What Is the Near-Term Impact of the Singularity Trend? 101
What Might the Far-Future Look like if the Trend Continues? 102
Are There Trends in Worldviews? 103
Did the Far-Past of Cosmological History (Before Earth) Show Similar Trends? 103
What Are the Conditions (e.g., on Other Worlds) that Lead to a Singularity Trend? 104
How Might This Inform Us About Potential Explanations of the Fermi Paradox? 106
Conclusions 107
References 107
Historical Mega-Trends 111
4 Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change—An Update 112
Review 112
The Facts 113
A Very Simple Argument 114
References 114
5 Hyperbolic Evolution from Biosphere to Technosphere 116
Introduction 116
Panov’s Pattern 117
Derivation of Formula for the Panov Pattern 118
Comparison with Actual Data 120
Subjectivity Problem 120
The Growth Rate of Sedimentary Rocks’ Thickness 120
On the Possibility of Global Influence of the Biosphere on Sedimentation 120
Logarithmic Growth Rate of Sedimentary Rocks Thickness 122
Dynamics of Marine Species Density 123
Hyperbolic Growth—Like the Population of the Earth 123
Conclusion 126
Appendix 126
References 127
6 Big History and Singularity as Metaphors, Hypotheses, and Predictions 130
The Main Hypothesis About the Speed of Evolution, Its Pulsations, Accelerations, and Decelerations 130
Does the Choice of Phase Transitions, Their Number and Dates Influence the Representation of Evolution in the Form of a Hyperbola, Tending to the Singularity Point? 133
Is Hyperbolic Relationship Preserved When Choosing a Different Position of the Singularity Point? 137
Possible Reasons for Choosing the Value of the Denominator of the Geometric Intervals Between the Most Important Phase Transitions 141
The Duration of the Geochronological Scale Segments as Indicators of the Rate of Evolution 142
The Correlation of Geological, Biological, and Social Evolution 147
Acceleration of Biological and Social Evolution Without Phase Transition Points 151
References 152
7 Big History Trends in Information Processes 156
Introduction 156
Definitions of Information, Entropy, and Complexity 157
Information, Entropy, Energy, and Complexity in Evolution 159
Singularity Trend 164
Possible Trends and Limits 165
Conclusion 170
References 170
8 Plurality: The End of Singularity? 173
Introduction 173
Temporal Patterns in the AI Plurality 176
Broken Intelligence as a New Singularity Scenario 180
The Diverging Trends of AI and Neuroscience 181
The Breach of Brain Simulation 183
Mathematics, Rather Than Brain Imitation 184
Does Deep Learning Progress Artificial General Intelligence? 185
The Slowing Down in Brain Understanding 186
A Formal Account of the Slowing Down 186
The Self-design Skill 188
Conclusions 189
References 189
9 Energy Flow Trends in Big History 195
Introduction 195
Role of Energy Flow in Big History 196
Recent Trends 200
Current Situation 201
Energy Transition Case: India 205
Possible Future 206
Conclusion 207
References 208
10 The Deductive Approach to Big History’s Singularity 211
Introduction 211
Time in the Informatics-Cybernetics Model of Humankind’s Self-controlling System 212
Geometric Temporal Trend in the “Fibonacci’s” Model of the Archaeological Epoch 215
Time in the Combined Model of Chronology and Periodization of the Archaeological Epoch 216
Conclusions 218
References 218
Models 221
11 Near-Term Indications and Models of a Singularity 222
Introduction 222
Topics and Approaches 223
Models 224
Experiences with Historical Rapidly Accelerating Processes 228
Conclusions 230
References 231
12 Is Singularity a Scientific Concept or the Construct of Metaphysical Historicism? Implications for Big History 234
Introduction 234
Evaluating the Singularity Concept in Big History 235
A Flawed Scientific Method 235
Incorrectly Specified Transformation Functions 237
Setting the Record Straight 241
Reinventing the Wheel or Redesigning Its Shape? 241
Some Personal History 242
Proposing a More Scientific Approach to the Future 247
The Pathway of Life 248
The Logological Constant 248
The Great Waves of Life 251
Biological and Technological Paradigm Shifts 253
Engine of Life 258
The Dynamic-Strategy Theory—A Brief Outline 258
The Driving Force 259
The Dynamic Mechanism 261
Strategic Exhaustion 265
The Future of Technological Transition 267
‘In My End Is My Beginning’ (T. S. Eliot, East Coker) 270
References 271
Future Implications 273
13 Threshold 9: Big History as a Roadmap for the Future 274
Introduction 274
Threshold 9: Key Concepts 275
The Great Acceleration 276
The Law of Accelerating Returns 281
Transhumanism—the Defining “Ism” of the Twenty-First Century? 285
Ape Brains in a Transhuman World—Accounting for Human Nature 287
Threshold 9: Teaching Topics 287
References 290
14 Dynamics of Technological Growth Rate and the Forthcoming Singularity 294
Introduction 294
On Increasing Speed of Historical Process 294
Objectives of This Chapter 296
The Structure of the Chapter 296
Materials and Methods 297
The Development of Historical Process in the Light of the Theory of Production Principles 299
Production Principles and Production Revolutions 299
The Hunter-Gatherer Production Principle 302
The Craft-Agrarian Production Principle 303
The Trade-Industrial Production Principle 306
The Scientific-Cybernetic Production Principle and the Cybernetic Revolution 308
Mathematical Interpretation of Technological Progress (in the Framework of Historical Process) 313
Introduction 313
Mathematical Interpretation of Technological Progress. Methodology and Calculations 317
Calculation of the Singularity with the Incompleteness of the Scientific-Cybernetic Production Principle 318
Calculation of the Singularity Taking into Account Forecasted Phases of the Scientific-Cybernetic Production Principle 326
Global Ageing as a Factor Influencing the Technological Growth Rate 330
Ageing and Technological Progress: A Positive Feedback 330
Global Ageing and Technological Progress in the Last Third of the Twenty-First Century and the Early Twenty-Second Century: A Possible Negative Feedback 332
Conclusion 334
Transition to a Managed Development and the End of the Economic Consumption Model? 334
General Conclusion 334
Acknowledgement 335
References 335
15 The Twenty-First Century’s “Mysterious Singularity” in the Light of the Big History 352
To Start with: Comments on Methodology 352
Big History: A Cross-Disciplinary Research Project 354
The Singularity Puzzle 357
Is a Cosmic Perspective Possible? 358
Technology, Psychology and Social Viability: The Law of Techno-Humanitarian Balance 359
Peace and War: The Diffusing Criteria 361
Life’s Meaning: The Nucleus of Twenty-First Century Global Problems 363
Recommendations 364
References 367
16 Global Brain: Foundations of a Distributed Singularity 370
Introduction 370
History 371
Metaphor 372
Foundations 373
Metasystem 375
Challenge Propagation: Towards an Organization Theory 378
References 380
17 The Cybernetic Revolution and the Future of Technologies 383
Introduction Between Human and Post-human Revolutions 383
Technological Dimension of Historical Processes 384
The Three Production Revolutions 384
The Cybernetic Revolution, Self-regulation, and Artificial Intelligence 386
Future Technologies 389
Future Medical Technologies 389
The Future of Biotechnology 390
Artificial Intelligence, Robots, Nanotechnologies, Additive and Cognitive Technologies 392
Some Ideas on Future ‘Smart’ Technologies 396
Conclusion. Will the Development of the Cybernetic Revolution Proceed in the Direction of Cyborgization? 397
Acknowledgements 398
References 398
18 Complexity in the Future: Far-from-Equilibrium Systems and Strategic Foresight 403
Problematising the Big History Approach to the Future 403
Strategic Foresight and the Near Future 406
Subtleties of Interpretation 408
Evaluating Feasibility 410
The Chaissonian Metric and Near Future 412
The Contours of the Future 416
References 421
19 Future Technological Achievements as a Challenge for Post-singularity Human Society 424
Introduction 424
Is a Scientific Forecast Possible? 425
How Far Ahead Can We Predict? 425
The Complexity and Detail of the Forecast 426
What Has Happened to Liberal Democracy? 426
Technical Progress and Changes in the Global Division of Labor 432
Two Ways to Create New Employment 435
Social Structure of the Western Society in the Coming Decades 436
Transitioning Towards a Complete Restructuring of Human Society 437
References 440
20 Singularity of Evolution and Post-singular Development in the Big History Perspective 443
Scale Invariance and the Singularity of Evolution 443
The SETI Problem and the Evolution of Intelligence in the Galaxy 448
“Exohumanism” of a Post-singular Civilization 453
Cosmic Expansion and Intensive Development 455
Information Crisis 456
Off-Planet Communication of Post-singularity Civilizations 460
The Galactic Cultural Field and the Character of Information in Cosmic Transmissions 462
Final Remarks 465
References 468
Epistemology and Ontology 470
21 Big History by Mathematics: Information, Energy, and the Singularity 471
Introduction 471
Biological Evolution as a Realization of Geometric Brownian Motion in the Number of Living Species 474
During the Last 3.5 Billion Years Life Forms Increased Like a Lognormal Stochastic Process 476
Expected Statistical Variations 477
Important Special Cases of ML(T) 478
Peak-Locus Theorem 478
Representing Lifetimes with the b-lognormal Probability Distribution 478
The Peak-Locus Theorem Using b-Lognormals 479
Evo-entropy as a Measure of Evolution 481
Definition 481
Linear Evo-Entropy When the Mean Value Is Exponential (a GBM): This Is Just the Molecular Clock 482
Introducing the Evo-SETI Unit 483
Markov–Korotayev Alternative to Exponential: A Cubic Growth 483
Conclusions 486
References 488
22 The Twenty-First-Century Singularity: The Role of Perspective and Perception 490
Introduction 490
Historical Hyperbolas 492
Hyperbolas and Exponentials 494
Cosmic Evolution and the Weber–Fechner Law 497
Complexity Magnitude 499
Modis and Panov Datasets 500
Alternative Methods of Estimating Parameters 506
Technological Innovations 509
Combinatorial Behaviour 512
References 516
23 About the Singularity in Biological and Social Evolution 518
Acknowledgement 532
References 532
24 The Transition to Global Society as a Singularity of Social Evolution 536
Introduction 536
Singularities and Phases of Social Evolution 539
The Adaptive Phase of Social Evolution 541
The Structural Phase of Social Evolution 541
Life Cycle of Societies at the Structural Phase 542
The Macro-evolutionary Diagram 545
Acceleration or Cyclic Recurrence? 548
The Rate of Social Evolution 551
The Nature of the Global Singularity 555
Conclusion 556
References 556
25 Evolution, the ‘Mechanism’ of Big History, Predicts the Near Singularity 560
Introduction 560
The Role of Evolution in Big History 561
Big History and Consciousness 562
In the Beginning 563
Endosymbiosis Theory 563
Cell–Cell Communication as the Basis for Physiologic Evolution 563
Endosymbiosis, Natural Laws, and Consciousness 564
The Cell as the First Niche Construction, Integrates Humans with the Environment 564
Top-Down, Bottom-Up, Middle-Out 565
Combined Epigenetic Inheritance and Phenotype as Agent Provides Biologic Scope to Big History 565
Anthropic Principle Versus Being of the Cosmos 565
Evolution, the Mechanism of Big History 566
Conclusions 566
Acknowledgement 568
References 568
26 How Singular Is the Twenty-First-Century Singularity? 572
The Weber–Fechner Law 572
Archimedes Singularity 573
How Singular Is the Twenty-First-Century Singularity? 579
Acknowledgement 590
Appendix 590
References 593
Conclusion 597
27 Conclusion 598
Preliminary Remarks 598
Discussions on Definition 601
Discussion on Evidence/Data 601
Discussion on Models 603
Discussion on Sequences 605
Discussion on Implications 608
On the Scenarios of Post-singular Megaevolution 610
Discussion on Ontology/Epistemology 611
Where Do We Go from Here? 612
The Current Critical Transition in Big History with SETI Implications 612
References 613