Architects of Change (eBook)

Preface 6
Acknowledgments 8
Contents 11
List of Figures 13
List of Tables 14
1: A Tale of Two Professions 15
Reasons to Be Angry 15
The Paradox of Change 16
The Crises of a System 16
The Other Part of the Glass 19
The Perspective of History 21
Time to Act—But How? 22
The Story of the (Un)needed Hero 22
Meet the Architects of Change 23
This Book Is a Tool 25
Being an Architect of Change in This Business Environment 25
What to Expect in This Book 26
2: Case Study: When James Bond Met Q 29
The Decision-Maker’s Struggle 29
Reconciling Two Contradictory Figures 30
The James Bond Story Versus the Q Story 30
Saving Companies from Irrelevance and Stalemates 31
What IBM’s Centennial Says About the Company 31
Uber’s Central Idea 31
An Exercise for Transformation 32
Lessons for Architects of Change 33
3: The World We Live In 36
A World of Geopolitical Rivalries 37
Defining Power 38
When a Hegemon Is Able to Coerce 38
The Dynamics of Power Are Also Critical 39
The Power Play of Smaller Players 43
Moving Beyond Coercion 45
What Power and Rivalries Mean for Architects of Change 45
A World of Cooperation 47
Avoiding Chaos 47
Establishing Reciprocity 48
Looking to Create a Predictable Business Environment 48
Managing the Shadow of the Future 50
Architects of Change: Seizing the Opportunities of Cooperation 50
The Overriding Threats and Opportunities 51
Dysfunctional Societies 52
The Changing Nature of Inequalities 52
The Advent of Tribal Societies 53
Climate Change 54
The Climate Change Paradox 54
Unequal in the Face of Climate Change? 55
The Significance of the Paris Agreement 56
Technology 58
An Ability Accelerator 58
New Solutions to Old, Current, and Tomorrow’s Problems 59
AI Against Climate Change, for Sustainable Development Goals 59
AI As a Fix to Dysfunctional Societies 60
Persisting Old (and New) Challenges 60
Fear the Machine 61
AI As the New Terrain for Geopolitical Rivalries 63
This is a Change-Maker’s World 63
4: Case Study: The Change-Maker Game 74
Who Is POY? 75
Food for Thought for Architects of Change 75
Mental Gymnastics 76
When and How the Environment Is Changing 76
Taken Hostage by Today’s World 77
Changing the System 78
The Basic Qualities of the Architect of Change 78
5: The Road to Reinvention 80
The Red Queen’s Race (and Its Implications for Reinvention) 81
A Different Kind of World 81
Many Metaphors and Interpretations in a Single Story 82
The Market: Where Reinvention Takes Place 83
The (First) New Economy 84
A Changing Reality 85
The Difficult Transition 86
Dealing with the Skills Mismatch 87
The Transition Towards a Greener Economy 87
Competition: The raison d’être for Reinvention 88
Competition—and Even Lack Thereof—Drives Reinvention 89
A Market in Which Competition Is High? 89
A Market in Which Competition Is Inexistent? 91
Limited Competition … Still Drives Reinvention 92
Collusion, or Looking to Erase Competition 92
A Story of Two Prisoners 93
What Could Possibly Happen 94
Competing at the Margin, on Market Share or on Price 94
Architects of Change, and Reinvention 95
6: Case Study: Founding a Popular Pizza Place in Paris 102
The Restaurant and the Market 102
Choosing a Price 103
Pricing for the Premium 103
Pricing for the Buzz 104
One Strategy, One Price 104
The New Experience 104
Architects of Change Are in for Business 106
7: The Power of Analysis 107
Scanning Your environment 108
Understanding Your Business Environment with PESTLE 108
Politics 109
Economics 109
Social 110
Technology 110
Legal 111
Environmental 111
The Evolution of a Tool 112
Grasp the Complexity of the Business Environment 113
The Issue of Truth Decay 113
Trend Convergence 114
The Changing Nature of the Consumer-Citizen 115
Metaphorical Thinking As the New Tool? 116
A Roadmap of the Architect of Change 118
8: Case Study: Strategizing at Amazon When Globalization Comes Under Pressure 122
Too Many Actors with Too Much to Lose 123
An Impossible Reverse Mode 123
And Yet, This Has Happened Before 125
Looking for Signs in the Calm but Uncertain Present 127
Free Trade Is Not the Rule 127
Global Tensions Are the New Rule 128
“How Far Will the Pendulum Swing Against Globalization?” 130
Time to Act for Architects of Change 132
Acting on the Analysis 132
Developing Agility and Awareness 133
Rethinking Globalization 133
9: The Significance of Anticipation 137
What Anticipation Is (and Is Not) 139
Anticipation Versus Prediction 139
Anticipation Must Have Consequences 140
Historical Analysis 141
Use with Caution 141
History Can Enlighten Us 141
An Application: What the Story of the Euro Tells Us About the Future 142
What to Look for in History 143
Feedback and the Analysis of Current Dynamics 145
A Matter of Interpretation 145
Facts and the Wisdom of the Crowds 145
An Application: The Roots of a Crisis Shaping the Future 147
What to Look for in the Forces of the Present 147
Horizon Scanning 148
Identifying Issues over the Horizon 148
Identifying the Convergence of Trends 149
An Application: The Issues That Could Rock the European Boat Tomorrow 150
What to Draw from Issues over the Horizon 151
Scenario Analysis 151
What the Future Holds for the European Union 152
The Breakdown 153
Muddle Through 153
Step-by-Step Integration 153
A New Grand Bargain 154
Generating Scenarios in a Turbulent Business Environment 154
A Set of Outcomes We Can Easily Grasp 154
Addressing the Key Question: So What? 155
Architects of Change: Acting on What You Anticipate 156
10: Case Study: Getting Ready for the World in Five Years 161
Choosing Themes 162
A Regional Approach 162
A Thematic Approach 163
What to Look for 163
Scenarios Are Unavoidable … or so Everyone Seems to Think 163
Identifying or Breaking the Consensus? 164
The Human Risk 164
Time to Get Geared Up, Architects of Change 166
11: The Purpose of Imagination 168
Defining Uncertainty 170
A (Very Brief) Historical Perspective 170
What We Do Not Control 170
The Modern Distinction 170
A Complex Reality 171
The Past, the Known, and the Seen 172
The Real Uncertainty 173
Flexibility and Resilience 173
Flexibility Is Never Infinite 174
When the Rubber Band Breaks 174
The Meaning of Bouncing Back 175
Living Like an Architect of Change 177
12: Case Study: Conducting a Pre-Mortem 184
The Pre-Mortem Exercise 184
Welcome to the Future 185
Back to Present 185
The Final Debrief 186
The Constant Pre-Mortem of the Architect of Change 187
Into the State of Mind of Architects of Change 187
Other Forms of Pre-Mortem 187
Do Not Lack Imagination! 188
Reinvention in the Making 189
13: The Meaning of Creativity 197
Defining Creativity 198
Original and in Opposition to What Exists 198
Taming Constraints 199
Implications for the Knowledge Economy 199
Mind, Brain, and Ideas 199
The Quality of the Business Environment 200
Knowing or Getting to Know? 201
Breaking the Rules 202
Irrational or Strategic? 202
Changing the Dynamics 203
Architects of Change Engineer the Future 204
14: Case Study: Looking for Talent in a Chaotic World 208
How GAFAs Redefine the Rules of the (Geo)political Game 209
Redefining the Meaning of Power 209
Redefining the Relationship to Space and to Others 211
Redefining Governance and Standards Across the Internet 212
The Birth of a New Society 214
Who Supervises the Empire? 215
The Necessary Regulator 215
The Not-so-Weak Consumer 216
The Changing Global Landscape May Require More than Geeks to Strive 217
Forces, Unite? 217
Beyond the Geeks 218
Next Steps: Finding the Talent to Address These Challenges 219
15: A Tribute to My Kids (the Ultimate Architects of Change) 223
What Science Says About a Child’s Brain 223
The Power of Open-Mindedness 224
Evolution at Play 224
What Fiction Has to Say About a Child’s Intelligence 225
Smart Versus Knowledgeable 225
The Surprising Effects of Our Sophistication 226
Think Like a Child? The Ultimate Challenge for Architects of Change 227
Striking Resemblances 227
The Solution May Be Closer Than You Think 228
Index 230