Fiscal Policy and the Natural Resources Curse

Paul Mosley is a development economist with strong interests in politics and the welfare state. He has held professorial chairs at the universities of Manchester and Reading, and is currently Professor of Economics at the University of Sheffield, UK.

Contents

List of Figures

List of Tables

Preface

List of Abbreviations







Introduction



The way forward: how do ‘inclusive’ alliances happen?
1. Analytic framework

2. Case studies of resource-intensive countries:

i. The classic comparison: Nigeria vs. Indonesia revisited

ii. Other ‘strategic alliances’: Chile, Botswana, Ghana and Bolivia

iii. Other rentier-dominated states: Venezuela and Zambia

3. Summary and conclusion




The fiscal politics of mineral development in Ghana
1. Introduction: political settlements and their economic consequences prior to the 1980s

2. Transformation of the tax structure: political and economic drivers, 1981-2015

3. The politics of public expenditure allocation and poverty in Ghana

4. Mining, technical rigidity and poverty

5. Can Ghana be seen as a ‘proto-developmental state’




Zambia: democratization without a ‘social dividend’?
1. Introduction

2. The political and economic background to 2006

3. Neoliberalism challenged: the evolution of the political bargain and of tax policy 2006-2015

4. The public finance bargain and welfare outcomes




Bolivia: a ‘hybrid’ political economy?
1. Introduction

2. The political and economic background to 2003

3. Neoliberalism challenged: the evolution of the political bargain and of tax policy 2005-2014

4. Public expenditure, social policies and poverty

5. Politics, fiscal policy and political stability

6. Summing-up and longer-term challenges for policy

Appendix: Survey results




The politics of inclusive fiscal policy
1. The basic story

2. Drivers of tax revenue, competitiveness and poverty trends

3. Testing the model

4. Conclusions




Conclusion: How can mineral-rich countries create ‘developmental states’?

1. The politics of ‘developmental states’

2. Export diversification: what distinguishes the successful cases?

3. Concluding thoughts: what can these ideas do for the poorest?



Bibliography

Index