Interpreting Congressional Elections

Jeffrey M. Stonecash is Emeritus Maxwell Professor of Political Science at Syracuse University. He is the author or editor of over twenty books on American political parties, polling, and elections.

Part I: A Conventional Wisdom and Its Importance

1. The Fortunes of Incumbents and Interpreting Political Change

2. Vanishing Marginals, a Research Agenda, and Political Responsiveness

Part II: The Data and Doubts

3. The Basics: Percentages, Averages, and Careers

4. The Presidential–House Connection Issue

5. The Gelman-King Estimation (and the Role of Open Seats)

Part III: The Role and Emergence of a Paradigm

6. The Puzzle and an Interpretative Framework: Kuhn

7. Embracing One Paradigm and Discarding Another

8. A Consensus and Normal Science

9. Embracing and Sustaining a Paradigm: Why?

Part IV: An Alternative

10. An Alternative Framework and Analysis

11. Paradigms and Understanding American Politics

Bibliography

Index