Causality, Probability, and Medicine

Donald Gillies is Emeritus Professor of Philosophy of Science and Mathematics at University College London, UK.

Introduction Part 1: Causality and Action 1. An action-related theory of causality 2. General discussion of AIM theories of causality 3. An example from medicine. Koch’s work on bacterial diseases and his postulates Part 2: Causality and Mechanisms 4. Mechanistic theories of causality and causal theories of Mechanism 5. Types of evidence: (i) evidence of mechanism 6. Types of evidence: (ii) statistical evidence in human populations 7. Combining statistical evidence with evidence of mechanism 8. The Russo-Williamson thesis: (i) effects of smoking on health 9. The Russo-Williamson thesis: (ii) the evaluation of streptomycin and thalidomide 10. Objections to the Russo-Williamson thesis 11. Discovering cures in medicine and seeking for deeper explanations Part 3: Causality and Probability 12. Indeterministic causality 13. Causal networks 14. How should probabilities be interpreted? 15. Pearl’s alternative approach to linking causality and probability 16. Extension of the action-related theory to the indeterministic case. Appendix 1. Example of a simple medical intervention which is not an intervention in Woodward’s sense Appendix 2. Mathematical Terminology Appendix 3. Sudbury’s Theorems Glossary of Medical Terms Index