Power Politics in Asia’s Contested Waters (eBook)

Enrico Fels is a research fellow and lecturer at the Center for Global Studies (CGS), University of Bonn. He holds a Bachelors degree from Ruhr-University Bochum in Political Science, Economics and Sociology and has a Masters degree from the Australian National University in Strategic Studies, where he also was a T.B. Millar Scholar in Strategic and Defence Studies. Enrico received his PhD from Bonn University. He is regularly presenting at international conferences, publishes his research in books and articles and is frequently invited to give lectures. Enrico leads the CGS research group on “Security and Diplomacy” and is co-editor to the book Power in the 21st Century. International Security and International Political Economy in a Changing World (Springer, 2012). His research interests and expertise include traditional and non-traditional security issues, international political economics as well as the strategic and geoeconomic consequences of an emerging Asia to Europe and the United States.Truong-Minh VU is Director of the Center for International Studies, University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Ho Chi Minh City (SCIS). He is currently also a lecturer at the Faculty of International Relations, University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Ho Chi Minh City. He holds a PhD from the University of Bonn, has published articles in numerous academic and policy journals (including The National Interest, Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, Global Asia, East Asia Policy, E-International Relations, ASIEN) and is regularly invited to deliver lectures. 

Contents 6
Part I: High Waves in the South China Sea 9
Chapter 1: Introduction: Understanding the Importance of the Disputes in the South China Sea 10
1.1 China´s Rise, Sino-US Competition and the Challenges to the Regional Order 14
1.2 Outline of the Volume 20
References 29
Chapter 2: A Sea of Troubles: International Law and the Spitsbergen Plus Approach to Conflict Management in the South China Sea 31
2.1 Introduction 31
2.2 Background on the Dispute 33
2.2.1 The Scene 33
2.2.2 The Actors 35
2.2.3 The Issues 36
2.3 International Law in the South China Sea 38
2.3.1 Measuring the Seas 40
2.3.2 The Role of Offshore Features 43
2.3.3 The Actors´ Claims with Respect to International Law 45
2.4 Approaches to Conflict Management 51
2.4.1 Five Premises 51
2.4.2 Dispute Settlement Under UNCLOS 53
2.4.2.1 The Spitsbergen Plus Approach 54
2.5 Conclusions 57
References 58
Chapter 3: Legalism, Developmentalism and Securitization: The Case of Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea 62
3.1 Introduction 62
3.2 Security Mindset, Common and Conflicting Interests 63
3.3 Security Bargain 64
3.4 Countering Securitization and Creating Alternatives to It 69
3.5 The Process of Developmentalist Desecuritization 1980 Onwards 71
3.6 Results of Developmentalist Desecuritization 73
3.6.1 Legalism and Desecuritization 74
3.7 A Change of Identities and Institutions 76
3.8 Prospects of Developmentalism, Legalism and De-securitization 78
References 80
Chapter 4: An Unmanned South China Sea? Understanding the Risks and Implications of the Arrival of the Digital and Robotic Rev... 82
4.1 Introduction 82
4.2 Actors, Stakes, Motivations, Recent Developments and Changing Military Tides 84
4.3 Changing Tides in Military Development Which Could Cause Unruly Waters 90
References 96
Part II: China Rising 100
Chapter 5: The South China Sea in China´s Developing Maritime Strategy 101
5.1 Introduction 101
5.2 Disputed Island Groups in the SCS 104
5.3 The SCS and China´s Maritime Modernisation 107
5.4 Diplomatic Pressures in the SCS Region 110
5.5 Future Prospects 115
References 117
Chapter 6: China´s Sea Power Aspirations and Strategic Behaviour in the South China Sea from the Theoretical Perspective of Id... 120
6.1 Introduction 120
6.2 Construction of China´s Great Power Identity and the South China Sea Disputes 121
6.3 China´s Changing Security Discourse and Its Sea Power Aspirations 124
6.4 China´s Growing Maritime Capabilities: A Challenge to the US-led Regional Security Order? 128
6.5 Conclusion 135
References 136
Chapter 7: Punish the Philippines, Forgive Vietnam? The South China Sea Disputes in the Eyes of Chinese Experts 141
7.1 Introduction 141
7.2 General Trends in Expert Coverage 142
7.3 Experts Weigh in on the South China Sea Clashes: Two Case Studies 147
7.3.1 Expert Reactions to the Scarborough Shoal Incident 148
7.3.2 Expert Reactions to the HS 981 Incident 153
7.4 Conclusion 157
References 158
Chapter 8: China´s Nationalist Narrative of the South China Sea: A Preliminary Analysis 160
8.1 Introduction 160
8.2 Why Nationalism Matters for China´s Foreign Policy 161
8.3 The Emerging Chinese Nationalist Narrative Over the South China Sea 164
8.4 Comparisons with Anti-Japanese Nationalism in China 167
8.5 Nationalism and the Future of the South China Sea Conflict 171
References 173
Chapter 9: Contradiction of Strategic Goals as a Major Constrain of Chinese Power in the South China Sea 174
9.1 Introduction 174
9.2 Conceptualization and Operationalization of Power in International Relations 176
9.3 Chinese Strategic Intentions in the South China Sea 180
9.4 Chinese Policies and Situational Outcomes in the South China Sea 185
9.5 Conclusion: A Way Out of Contradiction? 191
References 194
Chapter 10: Steel Hulls and High-Stakes: Prospect Theory and China´s Use of Military Force in the South China Sea 198
10.1 Introduction 198
10.2 The Use of Force in Territorial Disputes 199
10.3 Prospect Theory: Basic Tenets 201
10.4 Bargaining Power Prospect Theory Model 203
10.5 Case Studies 206
10.5.1 The 1960 Decision to Establish Naval Patrols in the Paracels 207
10.5.2 Saigon´s 1966 Troop Reduction in the Paracels 211
10.5.3 The 1974 Battle for the Paracels 213
10.5.4 The 1988 Sino-Vietnamese Encounter in the Spratlys 216
10.5.5 Summary of Cases 219
10.6 Conclusion 220
References 222
Chapter 11: Assembling a City in the Ocean: Sansha Island in the South China Sea and the New Politics of Chinese Territorializ... 226
11.1 Introduction 226
11.2 Territoriality and China´s Understand of Territoriality 227
11.3 Making a City in the South China Sea 230
11.4 Indisputable Disputes and Increasing Hostility 233
11.5 The South China Sea and the U.S. 236
11.6 Chinese Territorial Assemblage and Sansha 238
11.7 Conclusion 242
References 242
Part III: Southeast Asia´s Responses 245
Chapter 12: Navigating Stormy Waters: The Triangular Relationship between the United States, Vietnam and China and the South C... 246
12.1 Introduction: The South China Sea Disputes Against the Background of Power Transition Thinking 246
12.1.1 Power Transition and the Triangular Relationship U.S.-Vietnam-China 247
12.1.2 The SCS Disputes and the `Scramble for Vietnam´ 249
12.1.3 The Economic Dimension of the Triangular Relationship U.S.-Vietnam-China 251
12.2 Economics in the Triangular Relationship Between the U.S., Vietnam and China 253
12.2.1 U.S.-Vietnamese Economic Relations 253
12.2.1.1 Trade 253
12.2.1.2 Foreign Investment 254
12.2.1.3 Oil Exploration/Energy Cooperation 256
12.2.2 China-Vietnam Economic Relations 257
12.2.2.1 Trade 258
12.2.2.2 Investment 259
12.2.2.3 Oil Exploration/Energy Cooperation 260
12.3 Economic Trends and Politico-Diplomatic Activism in the Triangular Relationship: Indications of a Regional Power Transiti... 263
References 265
Chapter 13: Vietnam´s Pursuit of Alliance Politics in the South China Sea 270
13.1 Introduction 270
13.2 Bilateral Normalization and the ``Three No´s Principle´´ 271
13.3 The Increasing Irrelevance of the ``Three No´s Principle´´ 273
13.4 The Case for Vietnam´s Pursuit of Alliance Politics 276
13.4.1 How Has Vietnam Pursued Alliance Politics? 279
13.4.1.1 The Philippines 280
13.4.1.2 Japan 281
13.4.1.3 The United States 282
13.5 Conclusion 284
References 285
14: `Coopetition´ and Risk Tolerance in the South China Sea: Indonesia and Malaysia´s Middle Power Strategies 288
14.1 Introduction 288
14.2 The Collective Choices of ASEAN States 290
14.2.1 The Strategic Evolution of the Sino-ASEAN Relationship 290
14.2.2 ASEAN ``Strategic Division´´ 292
14.2.3 ASEAN´s Value Lies in ``Coopetition´´ 295
14.3 Individual Strategies 297
14.3.1 Risk Management Strategies 297
14.3.2 Middle Power Theory 299
14.4 Case Studies: Indonesia and Malaysia 302
14.4.1 Indonesia and Malaysia as Middle Powers 302
14.4.2 Indonesia and Malaysia´s South China Sea Policies 304
14.5 Conclusion 310
References 312
Chapter 15: Delicate Equilibrium: Indonesia´s Approach to the South China Sea 317
15.1 Introduction 317
15.2 Background and Indonesia´s Interests in the South China Sea 318
15.3 Delicate Equilibrium: Indonesia´s Approach to the South China Sea 321
15.4 China´s Renewed Assertiveness and Indonesia´s Response (2009-) 326
15.5 The Future Evolution of Indonesia´s South China Sea Approach 329
References 332
Chapter 16: The US-Philippine-China Triangle: From Equi-balancing to Counter-Balancing amid the South China Sea Disputes 335
16.1 The Diplomatic Puzzle 335
16.2 The Triangular Dynamic 338
16.2.1 The Return of American Bases 340
16.2.2 The China Factor 341
16.2.3 The Golden Age 342
16.2.4 The Reversal 343
16.3 The US Steps In 345
16.3.1 The Fog of Law 347
16.3.2 Upgrading US-Philippines Ties 350
16.4 Conclusions 352
References 353
Chapter 17: China-ASEAN Relations and the SouthChina Sea: Beyond Balancing and Bandwagoning? 356
17.1 Introduction 356
17.2 Is China a Revisionist Power Towards ASEAN? 360
17.3 ASEAN Reactions to China´s Rise 368
17.4 The South China Sea Dispute in China-ASEAN Relations 373
References 381
Part IV: Important Non-claimant Actors 384
Chapter 18: U.S. Policy Towards the Disputes in the South China Sea Since 1995 385
18.1 Introduction 385
18.2 U.S. Interests in the South China Sea 386
18.3 U.S. Policy Towards the South China Sea disputes 388
18.3.1 1995: China´s Occupation of Mischief Reef 389
18.3.2 2010: Response to Growing Tensions from All Claimants 389
18.3.3 2012: Scarborough Shoal and Sansha City 392
18.3.4 2014: China´s ``Incremental Efforts´´ to Assert Control 393
18.4 U.S. Relations with Littoral States in the South China Sea 394
18.4.1 Vietnam 394
18.4.2 The Philippines 395
18.5 Looking Forward 396
References 397
Chapter 19: Rising Chinese Power and Territorial Assertiveness in the South China Sea: India-Vietnam Strategic Partnership as ... 399
19.1 Introduction 399
19.2 Threat Perceptions of China 401
19.3 Arunachal Pradesh Territorial Dispute 403
19.4 India-Vietnam, and the South China Sea Dispute 407
19.5 India-Vietnam Strategic Partnership 409
19.6 Confronting China´s Escalatory Maritime Tactics 412
19.7 Conclusion 414
References 416
Chapter 20: Keeping the Dragon at Bay: The South China Sea Dispute in Japan´s Security Strategy 420
20.1 Introduction 420
20.2 The Role of the US in Asian Security: Ready for Creeping Expansionism? 422
20.3 Japan´s Own Territorial Dispute with China 423
20.4 Japan´s Approach to the South China Sea Dispute 425
20.4.1 Multilateral Diplomacy 426
20.4.2 Bilateral Paramilitary and Military Support 428
20.5 The Impact of Recent Japanese Security Reforms 430
20.5.1 Arms Export Rules 430
20.5.2 New Development Cooperation Charter 431
20.5.3 Article 9 Reinterpretation 431
20.6 Conclusion 433
References 434
Chapter 21: Australia, India and Japan: The Three `Worried Outsiders´ and Their Strategies Towards the South China Sea 436
21.1 Introduction 436
21.2 The Theoretical Approaches 437
21.2.1 Democratic Peace Theory (DPT) 437
21.2.2 Balance of Threat (BOT) 439
21.2.3 Regional Security Complex (RSC) 441
21.3 Foreign Policies 443
21.3.1 India 443
21.3.2 Position Regarding South China Sea 445
21.3.3 Japan 447
21.3.4 Position Regarding South China Sea 449
21.3.5 Australia 450
21.3.6 Position Regarding South China Sea 451
21.4 Theories Applied to the Problem 452
21.4.1 Democratic Peace Theory 452
21.4.2 Balance of Threats (BOT) 454
21.5 Regional Security Complex (RSC) 457
21.6 Conclusion 459
References 460
Chapter 22: Distant Partners: Europe and the South China Sea 464
22.1 The Ideological and Power-Political Effects of European Expansionism 464
22.2 From the EEC to the EU 467
22.3 The European Union and the South China Sea 468
22.4 The Regional and Global Interests of the EU 468
22.5 The ``Asian Semester´´ 471
22.6 Political Directives 472
22.7 Components of a Stronger EU Engagement 474
22.7.1 Parameters 474
22.7.2 Necessary Course Corrections 476
22.7.3 Potential Projects for Cooperation 478
22.8 Conclusions 481
Appendix 482
References 485
Chapter 23: The South China Sea and New Zealand´s Foreign Policy Balancing Act 487
23.1 Introduction 487
23.2 Reasons to Expect New Zealand to Take a Stand 488
23.3 Quieter than Expected? 490
23.4 New Zealand´s Response 493
23.5 Explaining New Zealand´s Approach 496
23.6 Conclusion 499
References 499
Part V: The Way Forward 500
Chapter 24: Pacific Community for Peace and Governance: Towards a Framework for Peace and Security in the Pacific 501
24.1 Introduction 501
24.2 Preventing Violent Conflicts 504
24.3 Managing Practical Issues Multilaterally 505
24.4 Developing Asian ``Ownership´´ of the Conflicting Claims Through the Justice System 507
24.5 Creating New Structures of Governance 509
24.6 Defusing Emotional Issues of History: Not Forgiven, Not Forgotten 510
24.7 Conclusion on Conflict Prevention 512
References 513
Chapter 25: The Use or Threat of Force in the South China Sea Disputes Since 1945: A Timeline 514
25.1 Timeline 514
References 528
About the Authors 531