Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence

Katherine Hibbs Pherson, President of Globalytica, LLC, consults with government and private industry on building strong analytic communities, the use of structured analytic techniques, and security issues. She teaches certificate courses on structured thinking and presentation for the security association ASIS International and in the Intelligence Masters program at Universidad Rey Juan Carlos in Madrid, Spain. As Vice Chair of the Intelligence and National Security Association (INSA)’s Security Policy Reform Council, she was primary drafter of its white paper titled “Next Steps for Security Reform: Industry Proposals to Enhance Efficiency and Reduce Costs in National Security Contracts,” which has generated a series of productive exchanges among government and industry. Ms. Pherson is also Chief Executive Officer of Pherson Associates, LLC, and a founding Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence, a nonprofit established in 2011 to promote the effective use of critical thinking skills and structured analytic techniques by teaching, certifying, and applying these skills in universities in the United States and Europe. She retired from the Central Intelligence Agency in 2000 after a twenty-seven-year career in intelligence and security analysis and resource management. Her leadership in the security arena led to the adoption of a risk management methodology, the strengthening of overseas security countermeasures, and improvements in dealing with unsolicited contacts. As head of the Director of Central Intelligence’s Center for Security Evaluation, she managed the Intelligence Community’s involvement in rebuilding the penetrated US Embassy in Moscow. She is a recipient of the CIA’s Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal and the Intelligence Community’s National Distinguished Service Medal. She received her AB from Vassar College, an MA in Spanish linguistics and Latin American studies from the University of Illinois, and an MA in Randolph H. Pherson is president of Pherson Associates, LLC; CEO of Globalytica, LLC; and a founding director of the nonprofit Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. He teaches advanced analytic techniques and critical thinking skills to analysts in the government and private sector. Mr. Pherson collaborated with Richards Heuer Jr. in developing and launching use of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, and he developed several analytic techniques for the CIA’s Sherman Kent School, many of which were incorporated in his Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques. He coauthored Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence with Katherine Hibbs Pherson, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action with Sarah Miller Beebe, and several other guides for analysts on writing, briefing, indicators, and managing the production process. Mr. Pherson completed a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community in 2000, last serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector General’s staff, and was chief of the CIA’s Strategic Planning and Management Staff. He is the recipient of the Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service as NIO and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his B.A. from Dartmouth College and an M.A. in international relations from Yale University.

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes
Foreword
Preface
About the Authors
Introduction to the Second Edition
Introduction
Part I. How Do I Get Started?
1. Who Are Your Clients?
2. What Are the Key Questions?
3. What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis?
4. How Should I Conceptualize My Product?
5. What Is My Analytic Approach?
6. Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer?
Part II. Where Is the Information I Need?
7. How Do Models Help My Analysis?
8. What Types of Information Are Available?
9. Can I Trust the Sources?
10. How Should I Assess the Reliability of Internet Information?
Part III. What Is My Argument?
11. Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?
12. Can I Make My Case?
13. Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?
14. How Do I Deal With Politicization?
15. How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?
Part IV. How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?
16. Is My Argument Persuasive?
17. How Should I Portray Probability, Levels of Confidence, and Quantitative Data?
18. How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?
19. How Do I Present My Message in the Most Compelling Way?
20. How Do I Know When I Am Finished?
Part V. Case Studies
I. Countering the Iranian Nuclear Threat: Stuxnet and Its Broader Implications
II. Puzzling Food Poisonings in Germany
III. The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers
IV. Financial Crises in the United States: Chronic or Avoidable?
V. Yemen: An Expanding Security Threat?
Glossary of Terms
List of Names
Recommended Readings
US Government Publications
Index
The Analyst’s Roadmap (Inside Back Cover)