Consumer Demand in the United States (eBook)

In Memoriam 6
Preface 10
Postscript 13
Contents 14
1 Introduction and Overview 22
1.1 Themes and Format of the Book 24
1.2 A Readers Guide to the Study 26
Part I Preliminaries 27
2 Demand Theory Under Review 28
2.1 Conventional Theory of Consumer Choice 28
2.2 Neoclassical Demand Theory as a 19th-Century Conservative Energy System3 29
2.3 Dynamics: Some Preliminaries 32
2.4 State- and Flow-Adjustment Models of Consumption 34
2.5 A Neuroscience Approach to Consumer Behavior 41
2.6 Brain Structure and Consumption Dynamics29 44
2.6.1 Assumptions and Terminologies 45
2.6.2 Consumption Dynamics Associated with the Alpha and Beta Brains 48
2.6.3 Opponent Processes and Consumption Dynamics39 50
2.6.4 Dynamics Associated with the Gamma Brain 54
2.6.5 From Consumption to Expenditure 56
2.6.6 Consumption/Income Relationships 59
2.6.7 Rationality 60
2.7 The Maslovian Needs Hierarchy 61
2.7.1 Physiological Needs 62
2.7.2 Security Needs 62
2.7.3 Community and Affection (Love) Needs 63
2.7.4 Esteem Needs 63
2.7.5 Self-Actualization Need 64
2.8 Some Implications of a Hierarchy of Needs 64
2.9 Toward Empirical Application 68
2.10 Emotions and Consumption Behavior70 69
2.11 Consumption Behavior and the Pursuit of Happiness 71
2.12 Summary and Final Comments 73
3 Quantile Regression: A Robust Alternative to Least Squares 77
3.1 Some Background 77
3.2 Quantile Regression 79
3.3 Illustrations and Comparison 81
3.4 Conclusion 84
Appendix: On a Bilateral Law of Pareto 84
1 A Bilateral Power Law 85
2 A Bilateral Pareto Regression Model 88
3 An Illustration 90
4 Conclusion 93
Part II Analyses of Data from BLS Consumer Expenditure Surveys 95
4 Description of Data Used from the Ongoing BLS Consumer Expenditure Surveys 96
4.1 Some Background and History1 96
4.2 The Current BLS Surveys6 98
4.3 Data Used in the Present Study 100
4.4 Control Variables 101
4.5 Combining CES Surveys and ACCRA Prices 102
4.6 Levels of Aggregation 103
5 Stability of U.S. Consumption Expenditure Patterns: 1996-1999 106
5.1 Principal Component Analyses of 14 CES Expenditure Categories 106
5.2 Interpretation of Results 115
5.3 Regression Models for PCs 1 and 2 117
5.4 Summary and Conclusions 119
6 Price and Income Elasticities Estimated from BLS Consumer Expenditure Surveys and ACCRA Price Data: Some Preliminary Results 124
6.1 Background and Merging of Data Sets 124
6.2 Models Estimated 126
6.3 Pooling Across Quarters and Years 132
6.4 Effects of Other Variables 135
6.5 Equations for Total Consumption Expenditure as Function of After-Tax Income 137
6.6 Tests for Heteroscedastic Error Terms 137
6.7 Nonlinear Logarithmic Engel Curves 140
6.8 Conclusions 142
7 Estimation of Theoretically Plausible Demand Functions from U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey Data 144
7.1 The Almost Ideal Demand System 144
7.2 The Linear Expenditure System 145
7.3 The Indirect Addilog Model9 148
7.4 The Direct Addilog Model 149
7.5 Some Technical Obiter Dicta Concerning Estimation 151
7.6 Discussion of Results 153
7.7 Conclusions 155
8 An Additive Double-Logarithmic Consumer Demand System 156
8.1 An Additive Double-Logarithmic Demand System 156
8.2 Application to the CES-ACCRA Data Set for the Four Quarters of 1996 157
8.3 Conclusions 161
9 Quantile Regression Analysis of Asymmetrically Distributed Residuals 163
9.1 Quantile Regression Estimation of the Additive Double-Logarithmic Model 163
9.2 Price and Total-Expenditure Elasticities 166
9.3 Conclusions 167
10 CES Panel Dynamics: A Discrete-Time Flow-Adjustment Model 172
10.1 Double-Logarithmic Flow-Adjustment Model 172
10.2 Comparison with Static-Model Elasticities 182
10.3 State- vs. Flow-Adjustment Behavior 184
10.4 Conclusions 186
11 Engel Curves for 29 Categories of CES Expenditure 187
11.1 An Overview of the Results 216
11.2 Size of Estimated Total-Expenditure Elasticities 217
11.3 Interpretation of Total-Expenditure Elasticities in Terms of Maslovian Hierarchy of Needs 220
11.4 Summary and Conclusions 224
12 Summary of Cross-Sectional Results 227
12.1 Stability of Expenditure Patterns 227
12.2 Joining of ACCRA Price Data with CES Expenditure Surveys 228
12.3 Summary of Price and Total-Expenditure Elasticities1 228
12.4 Estimation of Dynamical Cross-Sectional Models 230
12.5 Effects of Other Variables 231
12.6 Asymmetrical Residuals and Quantile Regression 231
12.7 Cross-Price Elasticities 232
12.8 Evidence for Maslovian Hierarchical Preferences 232
12.9 A First Look at the Relationship between Total Consumption and After-Tax Income 233
12.10 Epilogue to the CES Analysis: Update to 2005 233
12.11 Looking Ahead 233
Appendix: Addendum to the CES Analysis: Estimates of Total-Expenditure Elasticities for 24 Additional Quarters, 20002005 234
Part III Analysis of Time-Series Data from National Income and Product Accounts 239
13 Analysis of Time-Series Data on Personal Consumption Expenditures from the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts 240
13.1 NIPA PCE Categories 240
13.2 Generalization of the Flow- and State-Adjustment Models 244
13.2.1 Remarks 245
13.2.2 Remarks 246
13.3 Alternative Estimation Forms for the State-Adjustment and B-C Models 251
13.4 Nonlinear Estimation 253
13.5 Models Estimated and Statistical Procedures 255
13.6 Data 256
14 Quarterly PCE Models 258
14.1 Quarterly Models 259
14.1.1 Total Durable Goods 259
14.1.2 Motor Vehicles and Parts 260
14.1.3 Furniture and Household Equipment 261
14.1.4 Other Durable Goods 261
14.1.5 Total Non-durable Goods 262
14.1.6 Food 263
14.1.7 Clothing and Shoes 264
14.1.8 Gasoline, Fuel Oil, and Other Energy 264
14.1.8.1 Gasoline and Oil 265
14.1.8.2 Fuel Oil and Coal 265
14.1.9 Other Non-durable Goods 265
14.1.10 Total Services 266
14.1.11 Housing 267
14.1.12 Housing Operation 268
14.1.12.1 Electricity and Natural Gas 268
14.1.12.2 Other Household Operation 269
14.1.13 Transportation 270
14.1.14 Medical Care 270
14.1.15 Recreation 271
14.1.16 Other Services 272
14.2 Summary of Steady-State Elasticities and Budget Shares 272
14.3 A Dynamic Linear Expenditure System 274
15 Annual PCE Models 280
15.1 Food, Tobacco and Alcohol 280
15.1.1 Food Purchased for Off-Premise Consumption 281
15.1.2 Purchased Food and Beverages 282
15.1.3 Tobacco 283
15.1.3.1 Food excluding Tobacco and Alcoholic Beverages 284
15.1.4 Alcoholic Beverages 285
15.1.4.1 Alcoholic Beverages for Off-Premise Consumption 285
15.1.4.2 Other Alcoholic Consumption 285
15.2 Clothing, Accessories and Jewelry 286
15.2.1 Shoes 287
15.2.2 Clothing excluding Shoes 287
15.2.2.1 Mens and Boys Clothing 288
15.2.2.2 Women and Girls Clothing 288
15.2.3 Cleaning, Storage and Repair of Clothing and Shoes 289
15.2.4 Jewelry and Watches 289
15.2.5 Other clothing 290
15.3 Personal Care 290
15.3.1 Toilet Articles and Preparations 290
15.3.2 Barbershops, Beauty Salons and Health Clubs 290
15.4 Housing 292
15.4.1 Owner-Occupied Housing 292
15.4.2 Rental Housing 293
15.4.3 Rental Value of Farm Housing 293
15.4.4 Other Housing 294
15.5 Housing Operation 294
15.5.1 Furniture, including Mattresses and Bedsprings 295
15.5.2 Household Appliances 295
15.5.3 China, Glassware, Tableware and Utensils 296
15.5.4 Other Durable House Furnishings 297
15.5.5 Semi-Durable House Furnishings 297
15.5.6 Cleaning and Polishing Preparations and Miscellaneous Household, Supplies and Paper Products 298
15.5.7 Stationary and Writing Supplies 298
15.5.8 Household Utilities 299
15.5.8.1 Electricity 300
15.5.8.2 Natural Gas 300
15.5.8.3 Fuel Oil and Coal 301
15.5.8.4 Water and Sanitary Services 301
15.5.8.5 Telephone and Telegraph 302
15.5.9 Domestic Services 303
15.5.10 Other Household Operation 303
15.6 Medical Care 304
15.6.1 Drug Preparations and Sundries 304
15.6.2 Ophthalmic Products and Orthopedic Appliances 305
15.6.3 Physicians 305
15.6.4 Dentists 306
15.6.5 Other Professional Services 307
15.6.6 Hospitals and Nursing Homes 308
15.6.6.1 Hospitals 308
15.6.6.2 Nursing Homes 310
15.6.7 Health Insurance 311
15.6.7.1 Medical and Hospitalization Insurance 311
15.6.7.2 Income Loss Insurance 312
15.6.7.3 Workman's Compensation 312
15.7 Personal Business 313
15.7.1 Brokerage Services 313
15.7.2 Bank Service Charges, Trust Services and Safe Deposit Box Rental 314
15.7.3 Services Furnished Without Payment by Financial Intermediaries, Except Life Insurance Carriers 315
15.7.4 Expense of Handling Life Insurance and Pension Plans 315
15.7.5 Legal Services 316
15.7.6 Funeral and Burial Expenses 317
15.7.7 Other Personal Business Services 317
15.8 Transportation 318
15.8.1 User-Operated Transportation 318
15.8.2 New Autos 319
15.8.3 Net Purchases of Used Autos 320
15.8.4 Other Motor Vehicles 320
15.8.5 Tires, Tubes, Accessories and Other Parts 321
15.8.6 Repair, Greasing, Washing, Parking, Storage, Rental and Leasing 321
15.8.7 Gasoline and Oil 322
15.8.8 Bridge, Tunnel, Ferry and Road Tolls 323
15.8.9 Transportation Insurance 323
15.8.10 Purchased Local Transportation 324
15.8.10.1 Local Mass Transportation 324
15.8.10.2 Taxicab 324
15.8.11 Intercity Transportation 325
15.8.11.1 Intercity Railway 325
15.8.11.2 Intercity Bus 325
15.8.11.3 Airline 326
15.8.11.4 Other Intercity Transportation 327
15.9 Recreation 327
15.9.1 Books and Maps 328
15.9.2 Magazines, Newspapers and Sheet Music 329
15.9.3 Non-Durable Toys and Sport Supplies 329
15.9.4 Wheel Goods, Sports and Photographic Equipment, Boats and Pleasure Aircraft 330
15.9.5 Video and Audio Goods, including Musical Instruments and Computer Goods 330
15.9.5.1 Video and Audio Goods, including Musical Instruments 330
15.9.5.2 Computers, Peripherals and Software 330
15.9.6 Radio and Television Repair 332
15.9.7 Flowers, Seeds and Potted Plants 332
15.9.8 Admissions to Specified Spectator Amusements 333
15.9.8.1 Motion Picture Theaters 333
15.9.8.2 Legitimate Theaters and Opera and Entertainments of Nonprofit Institutions (except Athletics) 333
15.9.8.3 Spectator Sports 333
15.9.9 Clubs and Fraternal Organizations 335
15.9.10 Commercial Participant Amusements: 335
15.9.11 Pari-Mutuel Net Receipts 336
15.9.12 Other Recreation 336
15.10 Education 337
15.10.1 Higher Education 337
15.10.2 Nursery, Elementary and Secondary Education 337
15.10.3 Other Education 337
15.11 Religious and Welfare Activities 339
15.12 Foreign Travel and Other, Net 340
15.12.1 U. S. Foreign Travel 340
15.12.2 Expenditures Abroad by U.S. Residents 340
Appendix 15.1 Demand for Telecommunications 341
15.1.1 The Access/Usage Framework for Analyzing Telecommunications Demand 342
15.1.2 A Generic Model of Usage Demand 348
15.1.3 A Framework for Estimating Market Demand Functions for New Products and Services52 350
Appendix 15.2 Electricity Demand and Multi-Part Tariffs 354
15.2.1 Demand Theory and Multi-Part Tariffs 354
15.2.2 Empirical Representation of Rate Schedules 360
15.2.3 Electricity Demand in the 1970s: An Illustration 363
15.2.4 Conclusion 364
Appendix 15.3 Used Car Prices and the Demand for Automobiles 365
16 Discussion of the Time-Series Results 372
16.1 Tabulation of Annual Models 372
16.2 Elasticities of Current Study Compared with Those in the 1970 Edition of CDUS 382
16.3 Interpretation of Total-Expenditure Elasticities in Terms of Maslovian Hierarchy of Wants 389
16.4 Statistical Quality of the Time-Series Models 394
16.5 Asymmetry in Residuals? 395
17 Comparison of Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Elasticities 401
17.1 29-Category Level of Aggregation 401
17.2 CES-ACCRA 6-Category Level of Aggregation 404
17.3 Summary 405
18 Overall Assessment of CES and PCE Elasticities 407
18.1 Summary of Results 408
18.1.1 CES Data 408
18.1.2 NIPA Time-Series Data 409
18.2 The Importance of Total-Expenditure Elasticities 411
18.3 Assessment of Price Elasticities 415
18.4 Total-Expenditure and Price Elasticities and Hierarchical Wants 419
18.5 Comparison of Annual and Quarterly Models 421
19 The Dynamics of Personal Saving 427
19.1 B-C Model of Saving 428
19.2 Results for Personal Saving from the Flow of Funds Accounts 429
19.3 Extending Model to Include Capital Gains 431
19.4 Conclusions 434
Part IV Miscellaneous Studies of Income Distribution and Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference 436
20 The Stationarity of Consumer Preferences: Evidence from Twenty Countries 437
20.1 Motivation 437
20.2 Latent and Revealed Preference in Finite Data Sets 438
20.2.1 What Does Revealed Preference Reveal? 438
20.2.2 The Weak Axiom 439
20.2.3 Dominance 440
20.2.4 Matching and Connectedness 440
20.2.5 The Strong Axiom of Revealed Preference 441
20.2.6 A Test Procedure for the Connected Case 442
20.2.7 Further Analysis of Matching 444
20.2.8 Test Procedure for the Matching Case 445
20.3 Data 445
20.4 Findings 447
20.5 Discussion 449
20.6 Concluding Remarks 451
Appendix: Notes on Houthakkers Paper on Stationarity of Consumer Preferences 451
Proofs of the Theorems 451
Discussion of the Theorems 452
21 Notes on Thick-Tailed Distributions of Wealth 455
21.1 Introduction 455
21.2 Background 455
21.2.1 Scenario 1 456
21.3 Some Initial Simulations 457
21.3.1 Scenario 2 458
21.3.2 Comments 459
21.3.3 Scenario 3 459
21.3.4 Comments 460
21.4 Variations 460
21.5 Interpretation of Parameters and Scenarios 463
21.6 Law of Pareto Tests 463
21.7 Conclusions 471
22 Conic Distributions of Earned Incomes 473
22.1 The Search for Functional Form 473
22.2 Specification of the Conic Family of Distributions 475
22.2.1 The General Conic Distribution 476
22.2.2 The Conic-Quadratic Distribution 481
22.2.3 The Conic-Linear Distribution 484
22.3 Geometric Aspects 486
22.3.1 The Asymptotes 486
22.3.2 Modes and Inflections 488
22.4 Descriptive Statistics 489
22.4.1 The Median 489
22.4.2 The Arithmetic Moments and Gini Coefficient 490
22.4.3 The Logarithmic Moments: Alternative Measures of Inequality 490
22.4.4 The Lorenz Curve 492
22.5 Estimation 492
22.5.1 Medianization 494
22.5.2 Comparison with Other Distributions 495
22.5.3 Bias in Maximum Likelihood Estimation 497
22.6 Data 497
22.7 Empirical Results 498
22.8 Discussion 505
Appendix: Integral Formulae for CL and CQ 508
23 Final Evaluation 512
References 516
Index 525