Earthquake Early Warning Systems (eBook)

Paolo Gasparini, is Full Professor of Geophysics at the University of Napoli Federico II and President of Center of Competence AMRA. He is Advisor for Environment to the EC Commissioner of Research. He was President of IAVCEI. His activities include the assessment of volcanic and seismic hazard and risk. He is on the steering committee of the EC SAFER project on seismic early warning. Gaetano Manfredi, is Full Professor of Structural Design at the University of Napoli Federico II and Head of the Department of Structural Engineering. He is President of RELUIS (The Italian Network of University Seismic Engineering Labs) and a member of the Board of the Directors of AMRA. His activity is focused on seismic engineering and innovative materials. He is WP leader of the SAFER project. Jochen Zschau is Full professor at the University of Potsdam and Director of the Department "Physics of the Earth" at the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ). His scientific focus is on earthquake and volcanoes research. He was vice president of the European Seismological Commission. He is one of the leaders of the Indonesian-German Tsunami Early Warning System being set up in the Indian Ocean. He is coordinator of the EC SAFER project on seismic early warning.

Preface 5
Contents 12
List of Contributors 19
1 Real-time Earthquake Damage Mitigation Measures 23
Abstract 23
1.1 Introduction 23
1.2 Post-Earthquake-Information and Earthquake Early Warning 24
1.3 Implementation and Associated Problems 27
1.4 Basic Research on Seismology and Earthquake Early Warning 29
References 29
2 Can Earthquake Size be Controlled by the Initial Seconds of Rupture? 31
Abstract 31
2.1 Introduction 31
2.2 Statement of the Problem 32
2.3 Fracture, Barriers and Energy Concepts 32
2.4 Defining and Quantifying Fracture Energy 34
2.5 Energy Flow, Moment Rate and Dominant Period 39
2.6 Predictive Statement on Final Rupture Size 41
References 41
3 The ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning Methodology and Application across California 43
Abstract 43
3.1 Introduction 44
3.2 The ElarmS Methodology 45
3.3 Accuracy and Timeliness of Warnings 50
3.4 Warning Time Distributions for Northern California 55
3.5 Earthquake Warning Outlook 62
3.6 Acknowledgments 63
References 63
4 Real-time Estimation of Earthquake Magnitude for Seismic Early Warning 66
Abstract 66
4.1 Introduction 66
4.2 Strong-Motion Data Analysis 70
4.3 Discussion and Conclusions 79
4.4 Acknowledgements 83
References 83
5 A New Approach to Earthquake Early Warning 85
Abstract 85
5.1 Introduction 86
5.2 Method 88
5.3 Database 91
5.4 Results 94
5.5 Conclusions 100
5.6 Acknowledgments 101
References 101
6 Optimal, Real-time Earthquake Location for Early Warning 104
Abstract 104
6.1 Introduction 104
6.2 Method 106
6.3 Location tests 109
6.4 Discussion 113
6.5 Acknowledgements 114
References 114
7 The Virtual Seismologist (VS) Method: a Bayesian Approach to Earthquake Early Warning 116
Abstract 116
7.1 Introduction 117
7.2 Real-time Earthquake Source Estimation 118
7.3 Applications of the VS Method to Selected Southern California Earthquake Datasets 127
7.4 How Subscribers Might Use Early Warning Information 140
7.5 Station Density and the Evolution of Estimate Uncertainties 143
7.6 Conclusions 149
7.7 Acknowledgements 149
References 149
8 A Strong Motion Attenuation Relation for Early-warning Application in the Campania Region ( Southern Apennines) 152
Abstract 152
8.1 Introduction 153
8.2 Database and Scaling Laws 154
8.3 Peak Ground-motion Simulation 156
8.4 Regression Analysis 163
8.5 Conclusions 169
8.6 Acknowledgments 170
References 170
9 Quantitative Seismic Hazard Assessment 172
Abstract 172
9.1 Introduction 173
9.2 Crustal and Surface Velocity Reconstruction Using Passive and Active Data Acquisition Systems 173
9.3 Source Description for a Given Seismo-tectonic Zone 177
9.4 Challenging Issues of Seismic Wave Propagation in 3D Heterogeneous Media 179
9.5 Quantification of the Dispersion of Ground Motion Estimation 184
9.6 Discussion and Conclusions 187
9.7 Acknowledgments 188
References 188
10 Seismic Early Warning Systems: Procedure for Automated Decision Making 197
Abstract 197
10.1 Introduction 198
10.2 Ground Motion Prediction Process in Seismic EWS 202
10.3 Probability of Wrong Decisions: Pre-installation Analysis 206
10.4 Threshold Design Based on Cost-Benefit Considerations 212
10.5 Decision Making in EWS during a Seismic Event 215
10.6 Application of EWS 218
10.7 Concluding Remarks 225
References 226
11 The Crywolf Issue in Earthquake Early Warning Applications for the Campania Region 228
Abstract 228
11.1 Introduction 229
11.2 Seismic Risk Analysis Conditioned to the Earthquake Early Warning System 231
11.3 Decisional Rule, False and Missed Alarms 235
11.4 Simulation of the SAMS Earthquake Early Warning System 237
11.5 Conclusions 246
11.6 Acknowledgements 247
References 247
12 Earthquake Early Warning and Engineering Application Prospects 250
Abstract 250
12.1 Specific vs. Regional EEWS 251
12.2 Real-Time Seismology and Hybrid Systems 254
12.3 Applicability Potential of EEWS 257
12.4 Beyond the False Alarms: the Loss Estimation Approach to Early Warning 259
12.5 Concluding Remarks: Future Prospects of Seismic Early Warning Engineering 262
References 263
13 UrEDAS, the Earthquake Warning System: Today and Tomorrow 265
Abstract 265
13.1 Introduction 266
13.2 The History of Early Warning 268
13.3 UrEDAS 274
13.4 Compact UrEDAS 280
13.5 Operating Conditions 282
13.6 Challenges for Earlier Estimation with High Accuracy 293
13.7 Conclusion 294
13.8 Acknowledgment 295
References 296
Appendix 297
14 State of the Art and Progress in the Earthquake Early Warning System in Taiwan 298
Abstract 298
14.1 Introduction 299
14.2 Physical Basis for Earthquake Early Warning and its Benefits 300
14.3 Progress in Earthquake Early Warning in Taiwan 301
14.4 Current Regional Warning System 303
14.5 Onsite Warning Methods 313
14.6. Prospects 318
14.7 Acknowledgements 319
References 319
15 FREQL and AcCo for a Quick Response to Earthquakes 322
Abstract 322
15.1 Introduction 323
15.2 Real-time Seismology and Real-time Earthquake Engineering as a Disaster Prevention Tool 325
15.3 Proposal for a Reasonable Earthquake Index for the Alarm 326
15.4 AcCo 333
15.5 FREQL 337
15.6 Conclusion 339
References 339
16 Development and Testing of an Advanced Monitoring Infrastructure ( ISNet) for Seismic Early- warning Applications in the Campania Region of Southern Italy 340
Abstract 340
16.1 Introduction 341
16.2 ISNet Architecture and Site Installation 342
16.3 Early-warning Prototype 349
References 356
17 An Early Warning System for Deep Vrancea ( Romania) Earthquakes 357
Abstract 357
References 363