European Energy Futures 2030 (eBook)

Timon Wehnert graduated as physicist from Berlin Technical University and gained six years of professional experience in research and consultancy on energy and environmental topics, especially on energy technology foresight and energy research policy. Presently he is working as a researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT), Berlin, Germany where he was the coordinator of the EurEnDel study on which the present book is based and which was carried out in co-operation with four other European Research Institutions.

Foreword 5
Acknowledgements 6
Contents 8
Authors’ Index 13
Summary 15
Scope of EurEnDel 15
19 Technology Trends 16
Three Societal Visions 21
Assessment of Results 22
Europe’s Energy Future in 2030 – Three Scenarios 24
Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 25
1. Introduction 31
2. Outline of the Report 33
3. Methodological Approach of EurEnDel 35
3.1. Outline of the project 35
3.2. Basic Assumptions 38
3.3. EurEnDel’s Search for a Multitude of Futures 39
3.4. Design of the Delphi Questionnaire 40
4. Main Survey Results 45
4.1. General remarks 46
4.2. Technology Statements 49
4.3. Wildcards 63
4.4. Societal Visions 66
4.5. Country Specific Analysis 73
4.6. Quantitative Co-Assessment 77
5. Comparison of Social and Technological Perspectives 83
5.1. Introduction 83
5.2. Possible sources of divergences in the evaluation of the statements 84
5.3. The “Preferences” of the three Societal Visions for the Technology Statements 86
5.4. Preferences of the Societal Visions for Technologies and “ feasibility gaps” 91
5.5. Main Conclusions 95
6. EurEnDel Scenarios 97
6.1. Change of Paradigm 99
6.2. Fossil Fuel Wars 105
6.3. Muddling Through Across the Gas Bridge 109
6.4. Comments on the Scenarios 112
7. Policy Recommendations 115
7.1. “Safe Bet” and “Conditional” Technologies 116
7.2. Comparative Analysis of R& D Priorities
7.3. In-depth Analysis of Results and Recommendations 121
7.4. Conclusions 133
8. References 139
9. Annex A – Evaluation of former foresight studies 143
10. Annex B – Tables with Results from 1st and 2nd Survey Round 159
10.1. Raw Data – Technological Statements 159
10.2. Raw Data – Wild cards 166
10.3. Raw Data – Societal Visions 167
10.4. Definition of Terms 169
11. Annex C – Country Specific Analysis 171
11.1. Respondents by Country 172
11.2. Other Background Variables 174
11.3. Time of Occurrence 177
11.4. Impact Assessments 196
11.5. Societal Visions 201
11.6. Summary 204
12. Annex D – Correspondence Factors 209
12.1. Relations between Societal Visions and Social Impacts 209
12.2. Relations between Policies and Actions 210
12.3. Relations between Technologies and Statements 210
13. Annex E – Graphs on Delphi results 213
13.1. Impact Assessment 213
13.2. Actions Needed 217
13.3. Wildcards 220
13.4. Societal Visions 222
14. Annex F – Description of Societal Visions 225
14.1. Vision I – Individual Choice 225
14.2. Vision II – Ecological balance 226
14.3. Vision III – Social equity 227
15. Annex G – Evaluation of Comments 229
15.1. Comments on Statements 229
15.2. Comments on Wildcards 249
15.3. Comments on Visions 250
16. Annex H – Statement list – short term descriptions 259