Accident Proneness (eBook)

Front Cover 1
Accident Proneness: Research in the Occurrence, Causation, and Prevention of Road Accidents 4
Copyright Page 5
Table of Contents 8
Dedication 6
FOREWORD 10
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 14
SECTION I: THE VALIDITY AND USEFULNESS OF THE CONCEPT OF ACCIDENT PRONENESS 16
CHAPTER 1. ACCIDENT PRONENESSF–ACT AND FICTION 18
CHAPTER 2. METHODS AND APPROACHES 26
The Statistical Approach 31
The Psychological Approach 38
CHAPTER 3. BEGINNINGS OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 43
CHAPTER 4. DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-WAR RESEARCH 54
"DESCRIPTION OF FINDINGS ON CASE NO. 28 58
CHAPTER 5. EARLY POST-WAR RESEARCH 76
"(a) DRIVER SELECTION BY COMMERCIAL ORGANIZATIONS 78
«(b) GENERAL DRIVING POPULATION 79
CHAPTER 6. FINLAND'S CONTRIBUTION 96
CHAPTER 7. YOUTH AND THE AUTOMOBILE IN AMERICA 109
CHAPTER 8. RESEARCH ON ADULT DRIVERS 129
"THE GENERAL BACKGROUND OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT ON ROAD ACCIDENTS 135
"THE RESEARCH PROJECT 137
"THE PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF THIS PART OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT 146
"RESULTS OF THE PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ACCIDENT RESEARCH PROJECT 147
"DISCUSSION 148
CHAPTER 9. EUROPEAN RESEARCH 150
1. The Schizoid Personality 158
2. The Predominantly Depressive Personality 159
3. The Compulsive Personality 160
4. The Hysteroid Personality 160
CHAPTER 10. THE PENDULUM STARTS TO SWING 164
CHAPTER 11. ERA OF DOUBT 181
CHAPTER 13. CURRENT VIEWS ON ACCIDENT PRONENESS 232
Present Thinking on Accident Proneness 232
Epilogue to an Earlier Publication on Accident Proneness 233
Comments on Accident Theory 235
Driver Research in West Germany 239
Brief Summary of the Main Points of View in Present-day German Traffic Psychology 243
Deficient and Constructive Human Factors in Road Traffic 245
A Position Paper on Accident Proneness and Driver-oriented Safety Models 247
CHAPTER 14. THE CALIFORNIA DRIVER RECORD STUDY 252
The Correlation Between Accident Occurrence in One Period and Another 294
The Stability of Accident Rates as Shown by Relative Rates in Subsequent Periods 300
The Effect of Removing the Worst Accident Offenders on Subsequent Accident Rates 302
The Effect of Removing the Men with a High Accident Rate in Their First Year of Driving 306
The Significance of a High Accident Rate in Any Year of a Driver's Career 310
CHAPTER 16. PREDICTING ACCIDENT POTENTIAL 314
1. The Experimental Validation 319
2. The First Follow-up Study 323
3. The Second Follow-up Study 328
CHAPTER 17. ACCIDENTS AND PERSONALITY 350
The Bad Accident Risk 350
The Poor Accident Risk 351
The Borderline Risk 351
The Fair Accident Risk 352
The Good Accident Risk 352
The Good Accident Risk 358
The Currently Fair Risk who Should Improve to Good 359
The Person who Is Likely to Remain only a Fair Risk 359
The Person who Is Currently a Poor Risk but Could Improve Later 360
The Poor Accident Risk 361
The Person who Is Currently a Bad Accident Risk but who Could Improve Later 361
The Bad Accident Risk 362
The Chronic Minor Accident Risk 362
The People who Are Dangerous Accident Risks 363
The Good Risk who Is Likely to Deteriorate 366
Drivers who Had Received Psychiatric Treatment 366
CHAPTER 18. THE NETWORK OF ACCIDENT CAUSATION (1) 387
Exposure 388
Experience 389
The Sex Factor 403
Vision 408
CHAPTER 19. THE NETWORK OF ACCIDENT CAUSATION (2) 412
Intelligence 412
Driving Ability and Psychomotor Functions 413
Temporary Factors 415
Alcohol and Drugs 418
Social Factors and Discipline 424
The Network of Accident Causes 430
CHAPTER 20. WHAT OF THE FUTURE? 431
SECTION II: NEW STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR THE EVALUATION OF THE CONCEPT OF ACCIDENT PRONENESS 438
CHAPTER 21. NEW STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR THE EVALUATION OF THE CONCEPT OF ACCIDENT PRONENESS 440
1. Statistical Models Used in the Past—A Critical Appraisal 440
2. A New Statistical Approach to Accident Research 443
3. Statistical Control Charts for Intervals between Successive Accidents 444
4. Statistical Point Estimation of Individual Liability with the Help of tL 451
5. The Sampling Distribution of Estimator tL 451
6. Confidence Limits if Parameter . is Estimated from tL 455
7. Statistical Point Estimation of Individual Liability with the Help of tL 458
8· Confidence Limits if Parameter è Is Estimated from tL 460
9. Statistical Criteria for the Classification of Individuals and a Test for Differential Accident-liability Among a Group of Persons 462
10. The Reliability of the Accident Interval Criterion 467
11. Final Comments 470
REFERENCES 472
AUTHOR INDEX 480
SUBJECT INDEX 484
OTHER TITLES IN THE SERIES IN EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY 492