Budget and Economic Outlook

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regularly evaluates the quality of its economic forecasts by comparing them with the economy's actual performance and with forecasts by the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus (an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts).
CBO's forecasts generally have been comparable in quality with those of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus. When CBO's projections have proved inaccurate by large margins, the errors have tended to reflect difficulties shared by other forecasters.

This report evaluates CBO's macroeconomic forecast over two-year and five-year horizons. The periods used for the evaluations differ by variable and by forecast horizon, depending on the availability of the needed data. Additionally, sprinkled throughout this report are graphic representations of the data for comparisons versus Actual Growth and forecasted values by the CBO.

Key figures included in this report include the following:


Petroleum Prices and Consumer Price Inflation
Forecasts by CBO and Revisions to Values for Real Gross Domestic Product
Labor Productivity and Hours
Growth in Real Output - 2-year Forecasts
Growth in National Output - 2 year Forecasts
Inflation Consumer Price Index - 2 year Forecasts
Difference Between Inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Inflation in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Price Index -2 year Forecasts
GDP Price Index -5 year Forecasts
Growth in Wages and Salaries - 5 year Forecasts
Inflation in Consumer Price Index - 5 year Forests


Keywords: Economic Forecasts; Federal Budget; Budget Projections; Consumer Price Index; Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Gross Domestic Product Index (GDPI); Financial; Money; Debt; America's spending projections; Money factors; Consumer Inflation; Workplace salaries and income; Employee salaries, wages, and income; Employee work productivity' Employee work time and hours; Gas and Crude Oil prices; United States (U.S./US) Congressional Budget Office (CBO); CBO; Historical Financial data of America's spending and debt; Business cycle and trends; Interest Rates; United States (U.S./US)Federal Reserve; United States (U.S./US) Budget projections and data forecasts; Innovation; Education and Skills development; investment in human capital; capital expenditures; Recessions; Financial Markets fluctuations and growth;