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Facing Global Environmental Change (eBook)

Environmental, Human, Energy, Food, Health and Water Security Concepts

Hans Günter Brauch, Navnita Chadha Behera, Patricia Kameri-Mbote, John Grin, Úrsula Oswald Spring, Béchir Chourou, Czeslaw Mesjasz, Heinz Krummenacher (Herausgeber)

eBook Download: PDF

2009 | 2009
XCVI, 1544 Seiten
Springer Berlin (Verlag)
978-3-540-68488-6 (ISBN)

Lese- und Medienproben

Ebook-Leseprobe (PDF)

The year 2007 could perhaps accurately be described as the year when climate change finally received the attention that this challenge deserves globally. Much of the information and knowledge that was created in this field during the year was the result of the findings of the Fourth - sessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which were disseminated on a large scale and reported extensively by the media. This was the result not only of a heightened interest on the part of the public on various aspects of climate change, but also because the IPCC itself proactively attempted to spread the findings of its AR4 to the public at large. The interest generated on the scientific realities of climate change was further enhanced by the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC and former Vice President of the US, Al Gore. By taking this decision in favour of a leader who has done a great deal to create awareness on c- mate change, and a body that assesses all scientific aspects of climate change and disseminates the result of its findings, the Norwegian Nobel Committee has clearly drawn the link between climate change and peace in the world.

1 Introduction: Facing Global Environmental Change and Sectorialization of Security 66
Hans Günter Brauch 66
1.1 Introductory Remark 66
1. The emergence as a new multidisciplinary scientific field of study since the 1970’s and 1980’s that has focused on climate ch... 66
2. The development of a new major policy field of international (environment) policy since the Earth Summit (UN Conference on En... 66
3. Since the early 21st century this process of politicization has been complemented by a process of declaring selected global c... 66
1.2 Scientific Research on Global Environmental and Climate Change and Political Agenda- Setting 67
Table 1.1: Worldviews on Security and Standpoints on Environmental Issues: Source: Brauch 2003, 2005, 2005a). 69
Hobbes, Morgenthau, Waltz 69
(neo)realist 69
(pessimist) 69
Power matters 69
Grotius 69
liberal pragmatist 69
Cooperation matters 69
Kant 69
Neo-liberal institutionalist (optimist) 69
International law matters and prevails 69

V: the liberal and equity-oriented pragmatist for whom multilateral cooperation (in international organizations, regimes) matters and can solve challenges. 69
IX: the combination of Kantian ideas and Cornucopian optimism that democracies, the rule of law and international law, but also new technologies, can solve the new global environmental challenges. 69
1.3 Politicization of Global Environmental Change 70
1.3.1 Global Policy Debate on Environmental Security 70
1.3.1.1 Environmental Security Debate within the United Nations System 71
1.3.1.2 Environmental Security Debate of OSCE 71
1.3.1.3 Appling Environmental Security: The ENVSEC Initiative 72
1. vulnerability assessment and on monitoring environment and security linkages, 73
2. policy development and implementation, 73
3. institutional development, capacity building, and advocacy. 73
1.3.1.4 Environmental Security Research and Dialogue supported by NATO 73
1.3.1.5 Environmental Security Debate in OECD Documents 74
1.3.1.6 Environmental Security Concerns and the EU’s Green Diplomacy 74
Figure 1.1: Green Diplomacy Milestones June 2003-June 2005. Source: European Commission at: <
1.3.1.7 Environmental Security Initiatives in Latin America, Africa, and the Asia Pacific 76
1.3.2 The Global Policy Debate on Human Security 77
1.4 Mapping the Global Reconceptualization of Security and Environment Linkages in the Anthropocene 78
Table 1.2: Vertical Levels and Horizontal Dimensions of Security in North and South 79
Military 79
Political 79
Economic 79
Environmental 79
Societal 79
The sectoral security concepts cut across 79
dimensions and referent objects 79
563 energy, food , health, water, and livelihood 456 79
1.5 Sectorialization of Security and Sectoral Security Concepts 79
1.6 Focus and Contribution of this Book 80
1.6.1 Part I: Contextualization of Global Environmental Change 80
1.6.2 Part II: Securitization of Global Environmental Change 80
1.6.3 Part III: Securitization of Extreme Natural and Societal Outcomes 81
1.6.4 Part IV: Energy Security for the 21st Century 82
1.6.5 Food Security for the 21st Century 82
1.6.6 Livelihood and Health Security for the 21st Century 83
1.6.7 Water Security for the 21st Century 83
1.6.8 Environmental Security Concepts and Debates 84
1.6.9 Part IX: Human and Gender Security Concepts and Debates 85
1.6.10 From Knowledge to Action: Policy Outlook 86
1.7 Multidisciplinary Perspectives for a Global Audience 86

b.) to stimulate and encourage multi-, inter-, and transdisciplinary scientific research and political efforts to resolve, preve... 87
c.) to contribute to a better understanding of the complex interactions between natural processes, nature, and human-induced regional environmental changes (learning). 87
2 The International System, Great Powers, and Environmental Change since 1900 88
J.R. McNeill 88
2.1 Introduction 88
2.2 Environmental Change and Its Causes in the 20th Century 88
Table 2.1: Co-efficients of Change, from the 1890’s to the 1990’s. 89
Coefficient of change 89
4 89
3 89
13 89
14 89
40 89
13-15 89
7 89
240 89
15 89
1.3 89
13 89
8 89
9 89
35 89
4 89
9 89
5 89
1.8 89
1.1 89
2 89
1.8 89
5 89
0.99 (1 % decrease) 89
0.03 (97 % decrease) 89
0.0025 (99.75 % decrease) 89
2.3 The International System and Its Imperatives 89
2.4 International Struggle and Environmental Change 90
2.4.1 The Deeper Past 90
2.4.2 Combat’s Environmental Consequences in the Twentieth Century 91
2.4.3 The Impacts of Guerrilla War 92
2.4.4 Impacts of War Refugees 92
2.4.5 Impacts of Preparation for War 93
2.4.6 Military Pro-natalism 93
2.4.7 Military Industrialization 94
2.4.8 Militarily Useful Transportation Infrastructure 95
2.4.9 Nuclear Weapons Industry 95
2.5 Conclusion 97
3 The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Securing Interactions between Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being 98
Rik Leemans 98
3.1 Introduction 98
3.2 Defining Important Concepts 99
3.2.1 Ecosystems and Biodiversity 99
3.2.2 Ecosystem Services 100
Figure 3.1: The linkages between ecosystem serviced and human well-being. Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005). Reprinted with permission of WRI. 101
3.2.3 Human Well-being 101
3.2.4 Assessments 102
Figure 3.2: The conceptual framework of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005). Reprinted with permission from WRI. 103
3.3 Guiding Questions and Concepts of the MA 103
3.4 Main Findings of the Millennium Assessment 104
3.5 Concluding Remarks 105
4 Securitizing Global Environmental Change 109
Hans Günter Brauch 109
4.1 Introduction 109
4.2 Global Environmental Change as a Security Issue in the Anthropocene: Theory, Methods, and Models 110
4.2.1 Security Policy in and for the Anthropocene 113
4.2.2 Securitization Theory 113
4.2.3 Conceptual Mapping 115
4.2.4 Models for Nature - Human Interactions 115
4.2.4.1 Pressure-State-Response Models of OECD, UNCSD, and EEA 116
4.2.4.2 The Models on Environmental Scarcity, Degradation, and Stress 117
4.2.4.3 The Emerging PEISOR Model 120
4.2.4.4 Vulnerability Frameworks for Hazards and Disasters 121
4.2.4.5 Model for the Analysis of Climate Change and Armed Conflict 121
4.2.5 Securitization of Societal Outcomes and Policy Response 123
4.3 Securitizing Global Environmental Change 124
1. The power and promise of collective scientific endeavour, … 125
2. The importance of the role of knowledge in shaping public policy and guiding global affairs for the sustainable development of human society. 126
3. An acknowledgement of the threats to stability and human security inherent in the impacts of a changing climate and, therefore, the need for developing an effective rationale for timely and adequate action to avoid such threats in the future. 126
4.4 IPCC: Epistemic Community and Securitizing Actor? 126
4.5 Securitizing Global Environmental and Climate Change 127
4.5.1 Securitizing Water or ‘Water Security’ 127
4.5.2 Securitizing Climate Change 127
4.5.2.1 Climate Change as an International Security Danger and Concern 128
4.5.2.2 Climate Change as a National Security Danger and Concern 138
4.5.2.3 Climate Change as a Human Security Danger and Concern 141
4.5.2.4 Impact of the Securitizing Move on the Audience 142
4.5.3 Securitizing Soil Erosion and Desertification 144
4.6 Conclusions 145
5 Natural Climatic Variations in the Holocene: Past Impacts on Cultural History, Human Welfare and Crisis 147
Wolf Dieter Blümel 147
5.1 Introduction: Climate Change - Past and Future 147
Figure 5.1: Reconstruction of the Holocene climatic fluctuations. Source: Adapted from Schönwiese (1995) with permission by the author. 148
Table 5.1: Stratigraphic Table of the Late Glacial and Holocene. Source: Blümel (2006: 18) adapted from the National Atlas of the Federal Republic of Germany 2003. 148
Stratigraphy 148
Stadial and interstadial period 148
Calendar years before present (cal BP) 148
5,100 - 2,800 148
8,200 - 5,100 148
9,800 - 8,200 148
11,590 - 9,800 148
12,680 - 11,590 148
13,370 - 12,680 148
13,535 - 13,370 148
13,670 - 13,535 148
13,810 - 13,670 148
14,446 - 13,810 148
Last Glacial Maximum > 14446
5.2 Pleistocene Immigration - America’s Early Inhabitants 149
Figure 5.2: Refuges of the Amazonian rainforest during the last glaciation, compared with the present situation. Source: Adapted from Haffer (1969) and Veit (2007) with permission of both authors. 149
5.3 North Atlantic Current: The First European Crisis 149
5.4 Holocene Climatic Fluctuations During the Past Ten Millennia 150
5.4.1 Postglacial ‘Megathermal’ - Global Welfare and the Neolithic Revolution 150
5.4.2 Cooling Climate - The End of Paradise 151
5.4.3 Celtic Culture and Roman Empire: A New Warm Period 151
Figure 5.3: Development of the land use expansion in Germany since the European peoples’ migration. The medieval climatic optimu... 152
5.4.4 The Climatic Crisis: European Peoples’ Migration 152
Figure 5.4: The hyper-arid Skeleton Coast Desert (Namibia): Numerous stone settings of wooden-made wind-shelters, charcoal, bone... 153
5.4.5 Medieval Warming: Population Growth and Urban Life 153
Figure 5.5: 14C-radiocarbon dated by B. Kromer proves the medieval age of these archaeological findings. Source: photo by Blümel (2006). 154
5.4.6 Climatic Pessima: The Little Ice Age with Famines, Social Crisis and Emigration 154
Figure 5.6: Albrecht Dürer’s (1525): Apocalyptic Riders symbolizes the horrors of the ‘Little Ice Age’. Source: Internet. 155
Figure 5.7: The last phase of the ‘Little Ice Age’: Climate indices above the axis symbolize favourable years for agricultural p... 156
5.5 Climate Change: A Trigger for Growth and Collapse of High Civilizations 156
5.5.1 Egypt 156
Figure 5.8: Reconstruction of weather and seasons in the 16th century: Germany often suffered during the Little Ice Age under se... 157
5.5.2 Nasca Civilization: Shifting Desert Margins 157
Figure 5.9: Phases of the Maya collapse during early medieval times: The main reason is to be seen in droughts and in a great variability in rainfall. Source: Adapted from Arz/ Haug/Tiedemann (2007) with permission of the authors. 158
5.5.3 The Mayan Collapse: Natural Causes for Cultural Dcline 158
Figure 5.10: The Mayan Archaeological Site of Palenque, in Chiapas (Mexico) experienced its climax between the 7th and 10th centuries AD and was deserted by 950 AD. Source: photo by H. G. Brauch (January 2007). 159
Figure 5.11: The Mayan Archaeological Site of Uxmal, Yucatán (Mexico) that was suddenly deserted without any signs of destruction from wars. Source: photo by H. G. Brauch (January 2007). 159
Figure 5.12: The Mayan Archaeological Site of Chichén Itzá, Yucatán (Mexico). Source: photo by H. G. Brauch (January 2007). 160
5.6 Outlook on Present Global Warming - Learning Lessons from Climatic History? 160
6 Climate Change Impacts on the Environment and Civilization in the Near East 163
Arie S. Issar and Mattanyah Zohar 163
6.1 Shifting Paradigms: From a Determinist to an Anthropogenic Model 163
Figure 6.1: Overall Map of the Near East and Maps of Sub regions. Source: Issar/Zohar 2004/2007 reprinted with permission of Springer Verlag. 164
6.2 Constructing the Jig-Saw Puzzle of Paleo-Climates of the Last Ten Millennia 165
Figure 6.2: Map of Mesopotamia. Source: Issar/Zohar 2004/2007 reprinted with permission of Springer Verlag. 165
Figure 6.3: Map of Egypt. Source: Issar/Zohar 2004/ 2007 reprinted with permission of Springer Verlag. 166
Figure 6.4: Map of the Levant. Source: Issar/Zohar 2004/ 2007 reprinted with permission of Springer Verlag. 166
Figure 6.5: Map of Anatolia. Source: Issar/Zohar 2004/2007 reprinted with permission of Springer Verlag. 167
Table 6.1: General historical archaeological timetable for the past ten millennia in the Near East. Source: Issar/Zohar (2004: 14, 2007: 12) reprinted with permission of Springer Verlag. 167
Figure 6.6: Main Climate Changes During the Past 7,000 Years. Source: Bar-Matthews/Ayalon/Kaufman 1998 Frumkin/Magaritz/Carmi/Zak 1991 Bookman/Enze/lAgnon/Stein 2004.
6.3 From the Palaeolithic to the Pre- Pottery Neolithic Period (from 2 Million to 8000 Years Ago) 168
Table 6.2: Historical archaeological timetable of the Near East, from 10,000 to 3,000 BCE. Source: Issar/Zohar (2004: 43, 2007: 41) reprinted with permission of Springer Verlag. 169
6.4 The Great Transition - From Farming Villages to Urban Centres 169
Table 6.3: Historical archaeological timetable of the Near East, from 3,000 to 1,500 BCE. Source: Issar/Zohar (2004: 100, 2007: 104) reprinted with permission of Springer Verlag. 170
6.5 The Early Bronze Age - The Urban Revolution and the Dawn of History 170
Table 6.4: Historical archaeological timetable of the Near East, from 1,500 to 100 BCE. Source: Issar/Zohar (2004: 154, 2007: 158) reprinted with permission of Springer Verlag. 171
6.6 Dark Age, Renaissance and Decay - The Intermediate to the End of the Late Bronze Age 171
6.7 Migrations and Settling (The Early Iron Age) 172
6.8 The Age of Iron and of Empires: The Persian, Hellenistic And Roman-Byzantine Empires 172
Table 6.5: Historical archaeological timetable of the Near East, from 0 to 1,500 CE. Source: Issar/Zohar (2004: 219, 2007: 223) reprinted with permission of Springer Verlag. 173
6.9 Crusaders, Mamluks and Ottomans on the Eve of the Industrial Era: Islamic Period to Present 172
6.10 An Epilogue 173
7 Human Security, Climate Change and Small Islands 175
Yannis N. Kinnas 175
7.1 Introduction 175
7.2 Security Concepts 176
Table 7.1: Seven dimensions of human security of UNDP and vulnerability concepts. Source: Adapted from Vogel and O’Brien (2004: 6) permission was granted.
7.3 Climate Change 177
Table 7.2: List of Small Island Developing States (UN Members). Source: UN Office of the High Representative for the least Developed Countries: Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (2005). 179
Table 7.3: List of Small Island Developing States (Non-UN Members/Associate Members of the Regional Commissions). Source: UN Off... 180
7.4 Small Island Developing States (SIDS) 179
Table 7.4: Land Area and Population for Small Island States. Source: Brauch (2005: 68) based on IPCC 1998: 338 UN (2001). Reprinted with permission of the author.
Land area km2 181
Population (1995) 181
Population (2050) 181
Coastline length (km) 181
Tourists % of population (1997) 181
in 000 181
Density pers./km2 181
In 000 181
Density 181
pers./km2 181
7.5 Climate Change as a Human Security Challenge for SIDS 182
7.6 Conclusions 182
8 Redefining Sustainability: A Policy Tool for Environmental Security and Desertification 184
Rajeb Boulharouf and Douglas Pattie 184
8.1 Introduction: Evolving Landscape of Sustainability 184
8.2 Dawn of the Security Age: The Anatomy of the Desertification Crisis 186
8.3 An Emerging Challenge to Global Stability 188
8.4 Environments in Conflict 189
8.5 Water and Migrations: Two Reliable Indicators 190
8.6 Conclusion 191
9 Societal Impacts of Desertification: Migration and Environmental Refugees? 193
Andreas Rechkemmer 193
9.1 Introduction 193
9.2 Environmentally Triggered Migration and Environmental Refugees 193
9.3 Land Degradation, Desertification and its Assessment 194
Figure 9.1: Living Planet Index. Source: Living Planet Report 2004 - published in October 2004 by WWF. © Text and graphics: 2004 WWF. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission of WWF. 195
9.4 Drylands Ecosystem Services, the Causes of Migration and Conceptual Problems 196
9.5 Growing awareness at the multilateral level, and mitigation efforts 198
Figure 9.2: Schematic Description of Development Pathways in Drylands. Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005). This is in the public domain. 199
10 Desertification in Algeria: Policies and Measures for the Protection of Natural Resources 201
Ghazi Ali 201
10.1 Introduction 201
10.2 Status of the Environment 201
10.2.1 Desertification in Algeria 201
Figure 10.1: NOAA Satellite Image of Algeria. Source: FAO Country Profiles and Mapping Information System, Algeria at: <
Figure 10.2: Map of Land Cover in Algeria. Source: FAO, at: < http://www.fao.org/country-profiles/maps.asp?iso3=DZA &
10.2.2 The Affected Steppe Land 203
Figure 10.3: Precipitation in Algeria. Source: FAO Country Profiles and Mapping Information System, Algeria at: <
10.2.3 The Arid and Semi-arid Region 204
Table 10.1: Overview of the areas affected by Silting. 204
U 204
Living Dunes Organized 204
Silted areas (Sand-covered) 204
Ha 204
Ha 204
Ha 204
Ha 204
Ha 204
Ha 204
Ha 204
Figure 10.4: Districts in Algeria. Source: FAO Country Profiles and Mapping Information System, Algeria at: <
Table 10.2: Sensitivity of Administrative Districts in Steppe Land to Desertification. 206
Little or not sensitive 206
Medium sensitive 206
Sensitive 206
Very sensitive 206
Sup. (ha) 206
% 206
Sup. (ha) 206
% 206
Sup. (ha) 206
% 206
Sup. (ha) 206
% 206
10.2.4 Evaluation of Desertification 206
10.2.5 Factors Exacerbating Desertification 206
Figure 10.5: Farming Systems in Algeria. Source: FAO Country Profiles and Mapping Information System, Algeria at: <
Figure 10.6: Water and Wind Erosion in Algeria. Source: UNEP/ISRIC, CRU/UEA at: <
10.2.6 Degradation Phenomena 207
10.2.6.1 Water Erosion 207
10.2.6.2 Wind Erosion 208
Figure 10.7: Salinization and chemical deterioration severity in Algeria. Source: UNEP/ ISRIC, CRU/UEA at: <
10.2.6.3 Salinization 208
10.2.6.4 Chemical Pollution 209
10.2.6.5 Cultivation Methods 209
10.2.6.6 Urbanization 209
10.3 Assessment of Soil Protection Activities 210
10.3.1 Defence and Restoration of Land 210
10.3.2 Control of Flash Floods 210
10.3.3 Land Improvement 210
10.4 Action Undertaken 210
10.4.1 The Green Barrier 210
10.4.2 Land Utilization 211
10.4.3 The Afforestation Programme 211
10.5 Assessment of Environmental Protection Legislation 211
10.6 Natural Resources Requiring Protection 212
10.6.1 Plant Resources 212
10.6.2 Animal Resources 212
10.6.2.1 Domestic Fauna 212
10.6.2.2 Wild Fauna 213
10.7 Perspectives 213
10.7.1 Perspectives on the Land 213
10.7.2 Plant Resources 213
10.7.3 Animal Resources 214
10.8 Conclusion 214
11 Securitizing Water 216
Úrsula Oswald Spring and Hans Günter Brauch 216
11.1 Introduction 216
11.2 Evolution of the Water Security Concept 216
11.2.1 Notion of Water Security as a Political Concept 217
11.2.2 Water Security in International Scientific Analyses 218
Table 11.1: Fundamental policy directions and water security perspectives. Source: Falkenmark and Rockström (2005: 22). Permission was granted. 220
11.2.3 Use of the Concept in International Organizations as an Issue of International Security 221
11.3 Widening: Dimensions of Water Security 221
11.3.1 Water as an Issue of Environmental Security 222
11.3.1.1 Water Security: Use and Distribution 222
Table 11.2: Distribution of Freshwater Resources in the World. Source: Shiklomanov (2005: 11). Permission was granted. 223
Volume 223
(103/cm3) 223
Per cent of water 223
Recycled 223
Volume 223
Period for renewing/ years 223
10,530 223
30.1 223
-- 223
1,400 223
16.5 223
0.05 223
16,500 223
1 223
24,064 223
68.7 223
-- 223
-- 223
21,600 223
61.7 223
-- 223
-- 223
2,340 223
6.68 223
2,477 223
9,700 223
83.5 223
0.24 223
-- 223
-- 223
40.6 223
0.12 223
25 223
1,600 223
300 223
0.8 223
30 223
1,000 223
91 223
0.26 223
-- 223
-- 223
11.5 223
0.03 223
2,294 223
5 223
2.2 223
0.006 223
43,000 223
16 (days) 223
1.12 223
0.0003 223
-- 223
-- 223
12.90 223
0.04 223
600,000 223
8 (days) 223
35,029.2 223
100 223
-- 223
-- 223
11.3.1.2 Water Security in Consumption Patterns 223
Figure 11.1: Environmental Water Scarcity Index by River Basin. Source: World Resource Institute (2003) at: <
Figure 11.2: Per capita domestic water consumption in 1995 and 2025. Source: Rosegrant/Cai/Cline (2002: 5, figure 4). Reproduced... 224
Figure 11.3: Water consumption by sector in 1995 with projections to 2025. Source: Rosegrant/Cai/Cline (2002: 5, figure 4). Repr... 225
11.3.2 Water as an Issue of Societal Security 225
11.3.3 Water as an Issue of Economic Security 225
11.3.3.1 Values of Water 226
1. The process of validation implies a difference between the validating being and the entity that is being validated. 226
2. Objectivity: The values do not depend on individual preferences and are fundamental for all acts. 226
3. Lack of independence: While values are not independent, they are not subjugated to external instances, but represent an ontological independence expressed as an attribute of being. 226
4. Polarity: The present values are always opposites and the negative value is considered as being without value. 226
5. Quality is independent of quantity and its quality is pure. 226
6. Hierarchy: the values are not indifferent, not only with regard to their polarity, but the total value establishes a hierarchical order from agreeable to disagreeable (Oswald 2005: 131). 226
Figure 11.4: Logic of the Values of Water. Source: Ramos (2004), modified by Oswald Spring (2005: 147). 227
11.3.3.2 Administration of Water Security and Tariffs 227
Figure 11.5: Sustainable Economy of Water. Source: Sandoval 2000, modified by Oswald Spring (2005: 153). 228
11.3.4 Water as an Issue of Political and Military Security 228
11.3.4.1 Water as an Object of Conflicts and as a Cause of Disputes 229
Figure 11.6: Conflict constellation ‘climate-induced degradation of freshwater resources: key factors and interactions. Source: WBGU (2008: 83) 231
Figure 11.7: Conflict constellation ‘climate-induced increase in storm and flood disasters: key factors and interactions. Source: WBGU (2008: 109). 232
11.3.4.2 Water Stress as a Cause for International Cooperation 232
11.3.4.3 Integrated Water and Resources Management (IWRM) 233
11.3.4.4 Management Schemes and International River Basin Regimes 234
11.4 Deepening: Referents of Water Security 235
11.4.1 Human Security Approach on Water Issues 235
11.4.2 Gender Security Approach on Water Issues 235
11.4.3 Water Security as an Issue of National Security 236
11.4.4 International Security 236
11.5 Sectoral Applications of Water Security 236
11.5.1 Water as a Food Security Issue: Virtual Water 237
Table 11.3: ‘Virtual Water’: Average requirement of water in productive activities. Source: FAO (2000a). 237
Unit 237
Equivalence of water in m3 237
head 237
4,000 237
head 237
500 237
kg 237
15 237
kg 237
10 237
kg 237
6 237
kg 237
1.5 237
kg 237
1,900 237
kg 237
1 237
kg 237
2 237
kg 237
1 237
ton 237
190,000 237
Figure 11.8: Total water consumption for irrigation with projections to 2025. Source: Rosegrant/Cai/Cline (2002: 5, figure 4). R... 238
Figure 11.9: Potential irrigation consumption with projections to 2025. Source: Rosegrant/Cai/Cline (2002: 5, figure 4). Reprodu... 238
Figure 11.10: Irrigation and rain-fed production in cereals. Source: Rosegrant/Cai/Cline (2002: 5, figure 4). Reproduced with pe... 239
Table 11.4: Scenarios for rain-fed and business as usual production. Source: Rosegrant/Cai/Cline (2002: 5, figure 4). Reproduced... 239
Table 11.5: Irrigation water supply reliability index by regions, 1995 and 2025. Source: Rosegrant/Cai/Cline (2002: 5, figure 4)... 240
11.5.2 Water as an Issue of Health Security 240
11.6 Conclusions: Towards a Comprehensive Analysis of Water Security 241
11.6.1 Scientific Tasks for Achieving Water Security 241
Figure 11.11: Sustainable consumption of water in rural and urban areas. Source: Rosegrant/Cai/Cline (2002: 5, figure 4). Reprod... 242
11.6.2 Policy Tasks for Achieving Water Security 242
12 Changing Population Size and Distribution as a Security Concern 244
Wolfgang Lutz 244
12.1 Introduction 244
12.2 A Demographically Confusing World 245
Figure 12.1: Average annual population growth rates of selected world regions, 1950-2050. Source: United Nations 2003 (medium variant). 246
Table 12.1: Life expectancy at birth and total fertility rates by selected regions (1950-2050). Source: United Nations 2003 (medium variant). 247
Life Expectancy at Birth (both sexes) 247
Total Fertility Rate 247
1950- 1955 247
1975- 1980 247
2000- 2005 247
2025- 2030 247
2045- 2050 247
1950- 1955 247
1975- 1980 247
2000- 2005 247
2025- 2030 247
2045- 2050 247
12.3 Demographic Transition as the Main Driver 247
12.4 Mapping the Uncertainty Range of Demographic Trends in the 21st Century 248
Figure 12.2: Proportion of population above age 80 in Western Europe. Source: Designed by the author. 249
12.5 The Changing Global Distribution of Population and Human Capital 249
Table 12.2: Population (in millions) aged 20-65 by education and gender in 2000 and in 2030 according to the ‘constant’ and the ‘ICPD’ scenarios. Source: Author’s calculations (together with Anne Goujon). 250
Secondary and Tertiary 250
Base year 250
Constant 250
ICPD 250
2000 250
2000 250
2030 250
2030 250
2030 250
2030 250
Male 250
Female 250
Male 250
Female 250
Male 250
Female 250
Figure 12.3: Population (in millions) aged 20-65 by level of education, according to the ‘ICPD’ scenario in four mega- regions, 2000-2030. Source: Goujon/Lutz 2004: 138. 251
12.6 Population and Resources, Climate Change and Environmental Security 252
12.7 Population Policies and Security 253
12.8 Conclusions 254
13 Life on the Edge: Urban Social Vulnerability and Decentralized, Citizen-Based Disaster Risk Reduction in Four Large Cities of the Pacific Rim 255
13.1 Background and Objectives 255
13.2 Theoretical Grounding 255
13.2.1 Social Vulnerability 255
R = (H x V) - M. 256
R = (H x V) - M C 256
13.2.2 Megacities, Globalization, and Vulnerability 256
Table 13.1: Population of megacities with 10 million inhabitants (1950-2015). Source: UN Populations Division (2006). 257
1950 257
1975 257
2000 257
2005 257
2015 257
13.2.3 Focus on Urban Areas in the Pacific Rim 258
13.3 Introducing the Four Megacities 258
13.3.1 Human and Physical Geography 258
Table 13.2: Comparison of Four Megacities. Sources: Manila and Tokyo: Fuchs/Brennan/Chamie/Lo/Uitto (1994) Yeung/Lo (1996)
Greater Los Angeles 259
Metropolitan Manila 259
Greater Mexico City 259
Metropolitan Tokyo 259
13 259
11 259
18 259
26 259
87 259
15 259
22 259
14 259
149 259
733 259
818 259
1,857 259
220 259
430 259
477 (666) 259
398 259
25 259
40 259
50 259
10 259
5-10 259
30 259
40 259
2-3 259
13.3.2 Economic and Political Geography 258
13.3.3 Time Geography of Hazard 260
13.4 Los Angeles and Mexico City: Specific Comparisons 260
13.4.1 Shared Geographies of Hazard 260
13.4.2 Shared Sociology of Survival 261
13.4.3 Contrasting Perceptions of Social Vulnerability 262
Table 13.3: Groups Perceived by Disaster Management Professionals to be Highly Vulnerable to Disasters (per cent of officials). Source: Authors’ field work. 262
Mexico City 262
Los Angeles 262
13.4.4 Similar Approaches to Knowledge and Planning 263
Table 13.4: Knowledge of Vulnerable Groups and Plan- ning of Programmes to Reduce Vulnerability In Mexico City and Los Angeles (per cent of officials). Source: Authors’ field work. 263
Mexico City 263
Los Angeles 263
13.5 Manila and Tokyo: Specific Comparisons 264
13.5.1 Shared Geographies of Hazard 264
13.5.2 Contrasting Sociologies of Survival 266
13.5.3 Contrasting Perceptions of Social Vulnerability 266
Table 13.5: Groups Perceived by Disaster Management Professionals to be Highly Vulnerable to Disasters (per cent of officials). Source: Authors’ field work. 267
Metro Manila 267
Central Tokyo 267
13.5.4 Similar Approaches to Knowledge and Planning 267
Table 13.6: Knowledge of Vulnerable Groups and Planning of Programmes to Reduce Vulnerability (per cent of officials). Source: Authors’ field work. 268
Metro Manila 268
Central Tokyo 268
13.6 Common Problems and Obstacles 268
13.6.1 Difficulties Facing Municipality/ NGO Cooperation 268
13.6.2 Problems with Municipal Decentralization 269
Table 13.7: Social Capital and Trust Matrix. Source: The authors. 270
Trust (T) 270
13.6.3 Overview of Issues: On Trust and the Notion of Social Capital 270
13.7 Conclusions 270
14 Policy Dimensions of Human Security and Vulnerability Challenges. The Case of Urban India 272
Isabelle Milbert 272
14.1 Introduction 272
14.2 The Essential Vulnerability of the Indian Urban Space 272
14.3 Security Policies and Human Vulnerability in the Urban Space 273
14.4 Differential Approaches to Urban Vulnerability and Search for Security 274
14.4.1 Vulnerability, Security and Infrastructure 274
14.4.2 Vulnerability and Industrial Activities 275
14.4.3 Risks Related to Natural Hazards 276
14.4.4 Overwhelming Social Vulnerability 277
14.5 The Governance Dimension of the Security Challenge 278
14.5.1 International Cooperation and Urban Security 278
14.5.2 The New Role of Decentralized Stakeholders 279
14.5.3 Issues Around Social Movements, NGOs, and Popular Participation 280
14.5.4 The Implementation of Public Policies 280
14.6 Conclusion 281
15 Interactions between Conflict and Natural Hazards: Swords, Ploughshares, Earthquakes, Floods and Storms 284
Ben Wisner 284
15.1 Introduction: Violent Conflict and Natural Hazards: Definitions and Approaches 284
15.2 Violent Conflict and Disaster: Scientific, Moral, and Policy Challenges 286
15.3 Interaction of Violent Conflict with Natural and Technological Hazards and Management Efforts 288
15.3.1 Violent Conflict as Root Causes of Social Vulnerability 288
15.3.2 Institutional Weaknesses: Past Violent Conflict and Natural Hazards Producing a Downward Spiral 288
15.3.3 Displacement of Large Numbers of People in War and Other Violent Conflicts Leading to New Risks. 289
15.3.4 Violent Conflict Interfering with Relief and Recovery Assistance 289
15.3.5 Difficulty for Participatory Methods Empowering and Engaging Socially Vulnerable Groups During Violent Conflicts 289
15.3.6 Difficulty of Applying Existing Knowledge for Mitigation of Risk from Extreme Natural Events during Violent Conflict 290
15.3.7 Violent Conflict Diverting National and International Financial and Human Resources from Mitigation of Disaster Risk 290
15.3.8 Violent Conflict Destroying Infrastructure and Intensifying Natural Hazards: Flooding, Drought, or Epidemic Disease 290
15.3.9 Violent Confrontations Impacting on Vegetation, Land, and Water, and Undermining Sustainable Development 291
15.3.10 Poorly Managed Disasters Creating, Prolonging, or Exacerbating Violent Conflicts 291
15.4 Practical Implications and the Way Forward 292
15.4.1 Providing Disaster Relief 292
15.4.2 Preventing Future Disasters 293
15.4.3 Recovery from Disaster 294
15.5 Conclusion 294
16 AIDS as a Human Security Challenge 296
Nana K. Poku and Bjorg Sandkjaer 296
16.1 Introduction 296
16.2 Human Security and HIV/AIDS 296
Figure 16.1: Percentage of Africans living on less than a dollar a day. Source: Authors, using data from UN (2005). 298
Figure 16.2: Number of People Living with HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa. Source: Authors, calculated using data from the World Bank (2005). 298
Figure 16.3: Impact of HIV/AIDS on population growth for selected southern African states. Source: Authors, using data from UN/DESA Population Division (2005). 299
Figure 16.4: Impact of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy at birth, 1970-2015. Source: Authors, using data from UN/DESA Population Division (2005). 300
16.3 Impact of HIV/AIDS on Sustainable Development 300
Figure 16.5: Women in Parliament 2004. Source: Population Reference Bureau (2005). 301
Table 16.1: Human Development in selected African countries. Source: UNDP (2006). 302
HDI ranking - 2006 302
HDI value - 1995 302
HDI value - 2006 302
107 302
0.714 302
0.695 302
122 302
…….. 302
0.610 302
125 302
0.615 302
0.577 302
126 302
0.653 302
0.572 302
128 302
0.597 302
0.551 302
132 302
0.574 302
0.535 302
151 302
0.422 302
0.440 302
153 302
0.468 302
0.433 302
155 302
……. 302
0.431 302
161 302
……. 302
0.403 302
163 302
0.362 302
0.400 302
170 302
0.310 302
0.322 302
16.4 HIV/AIDS: The Biggest Development Challenge 302
Figure 16.6: Number of Adults Receiving Antiretroviral Treatment in sub-Saharan Africa. Source: Simulation based on Salomon/Hoga... 304
16.5 AIDS and Instability 305
Figure 16.7: Conceptual framework for impacts of HIV/AIDS on democratic processes. Source: The authors. 306
16.6 Conclusion 305
17 Conflict and HIV/AIDS: Quantitative Analysis 308
Sophia Benz 308
17.1 Introduction 308
17.2 The Theoretical Argument 309
Figure 17.1: The Final Theoretical Model. Source: Benz (2005). 311
17.3 ‘Trojan Horse Hypothesis’: HIV in the Military 312
17.4 Modelling HIV-Prevalence: A Quantitative Analysis 314
Y = b1*x1 + b2*x2 + … bk*xk + c + e, (1) 315
17.5 Does Conflict Experience Significantly Correlate with Higher HIV-Prevalence? 315
17.6 Policy Implications and Conclusions 317
Table 17.1: Results of Final OLS Regression Analyses (with HIV-Prevalence as the dependent variable). Source: The author. 318
Model 1 318
conflict dummy 318
Model 2 318
war dummy 318
Model 3 318
short duration 318
Model 4 318
medium duration 318
Model 5 318
high duration 318
Model 6 318
No. of conflicts 318
Model 7 318
No. of conflicts, 318
extended sample 318
Model 8 318
No. of inter- mediate conflicts 318
Model 9 318
No. of minor conflicts 318
Model 10 318
No. of wars 318
Model 11 318
Years in conflict, 318
extended sample 318
Model 12 318
Peace duration, 318
extended sample 318
Table 17.2: Measurement and Data Sources (all variables). Source: The author. 320
HIV-Prevalence Measures / Dependent Variable 320
Variable 320
Measure 320
Source 320
Conflict Involvement Measures / Key Independent Variable 320
Measurement of the Control Variables 320
Measure 320
Source 320
18 Preparing for Low-Frequency, Extreme Natural Hazards: Contributing to Human Security by Enhancing ‘Freedom from Hazard Impact’ 322
Janos J. Bogardi, Jörn Birkmann, Niklas Gebert and Neysa J. Setiadi 322
18.1 Introduction 322
18.2 The Concepts ‘Human Security’ and ‘Vulnerability’ 322
18.2.1 The Human Security Concept 322
18.2.2 The BBC Conceptual Framework for Social Vulnerability 323
Figure 18.1: The BBC conceptual framework. Source: Birkmann 2006: 34, based on Bogardi/Birkmann (2004) and Cardona (1999, 2001). 324
18.3 Preparedness and Risk Priorities 325
Figure 18.2: The Risk Hierarchy. Source: Adapted from Cannon (2006: 11). Permission was obtained from the copyright holder. 326
Figure 18.3: Map of recent and plausible future sources of Sumatran tsunami. Source: Borrero/Sieh/Chlieh/Synolakis (2006: 19674). Permission was obtained from the copyright holder. 327
18.4 Case Study: Preparedness for Tsunami Risk in Padang City, Indonesia 327
18.4.1 Assessment of Community Preparedness to Earthquake and Tsunami 327
1. Knowledge and attitude towards disaster risk Knowledge is considered as a main factor and key for preparedness. Particularly ... 328
2. Policy and guidelines Relevant policies that significantly influence preparedness comprise budgeting, organization, human res... 328
3. Emergency plan Emergency plans are especially important regarding evacuation and search and rescue in order to minimize the number of victims. 328
4. Warning system The warning system contains warning and information dissemination. This should also be supported by training and simulation of an appropriate response. 328
5. Capacity to mobilize resources This means resources in the form of human resources, as well as financial resources (funding) and physical resources (facilities) the capacity to mobilize them is also considered to be a crucial factor.
18.4.2 Household Preparedness 329
1. Definition of natural disaster 329
2. Cause and indications of earthquake and tsunami 329
3. Characteristics of seismic and tsunami resistant structures 329
4. Response to strong earthquake and sudden low tide 329
5. Source of information about earthquakes and tsunami 329
6. Action to rescue from the earthquake and tsunami 329
7. Availability of emergency plan and equipment, such as evacuation route and places, emergency bags, simulation/exercise 329
8. Awareness of availability of a warning system in the region 329
9. Response after receiving the warning 329
10. Participation in preparedness activities 329
11. Possession of savings, insurance, or land/ house in other places 329
12. Availability of relatives/friends to help in case of disaster 329
18.4.2.1 Knowledge and Attitude 329
Figure 18.4: Indices of the household preparedness level in three different hazard zones. Source: Own figures based on data from... 330
Figure 18.5: The knowledge and attitude index based on different levels of education. Source: Own figures based on data from Hid... 330
Figure 18.6: Sources of information about tsunamis and earthquakes from specific sources. Source: Own figures based on data from... 331
18.4.2.2 Coping Capacity in Terms of Individual Capacity and Actions 331
18.4.3 Government Level - Disaster Management 331
18.4.3.1 Policy and Guidelines 331
1. Hazard map and evacuation map 332
2. Evacuation places 332
3. Buildings prepared for temporary rescue locations 332
4. Disaster command centre 332
5. Operating procedure from command centre 332
6. Disaster-management training in command centre 332
7. Storage of emergency materials 332
8. Procedure and plan of materials provision in emergency 332
9. Search and Rescue team (SAR) 332
10. Evacuation system/ambulance in SAR unit 332
11. Electricity supply for emergency 332
12. Communication network for emergency 332
13. Water supply for emergency 332
14. Heavy equipment 332
18.4.3.2 Emergency Planning and Early Warning System 331
18.5 Conclusions 332
18.6 Recommendations 333
19 Environmental Refugees and Environmental Distress Migration as a Security Challenge for India and Bangladesh 334
Imtiaz Ahmed 334
19.1 Introduction 334
19.2 Conceptualizing Environmental Refugees 334
Figure 19.1: Maps of Bangladesh, A: Climate-related Natural Events, and B: Internal Migration. Sources: A: Ericksen/ Ahmad/Chowdhury (1996: 264) B: Ericksen/Ahmad/Chowdhury (1996: 245). Permission was obtained.
19.3 Distress Migration from Bangladesh to India 336
Table 19.1: Reasons for leaving Bangladesh (multiple responses). Source: Author’s Survey (1997). 337
Khulna- Sathkhira 337
Rajshahi 337
Dinajpur 337
Nilphamari 337
Total (%) 337
67.0 337
19 337
29 337
12 337
33 337
23.25 337
16 337
23 337
15 337
19 337
18.25 337
7 337
8 337
4 337
5 337
6.0 337
42 337
10 337
2 337
24 337
19.5 337
0 337
11 337
19 337
0 337
7.5 337
16 337
11 337
16 337
14 337
14.25 337
0 337
8 337
0 337
0 337
2.0 337
0 337
0 337
8 337
5 337
3.25 337
0 337
0 337
24 337
0 337
6.0 337
Table 19.2: Original home of environmental refugees. Source: Author’s calculation from a survey conducted by Ranabir Samaddar of Maulana Azad Institute of Asian Studies (Calcutta: 1996). 337
% of Total 337
Figure 19.2: Map of Bangladesh. Source: Georgia Tech Bangladesh Student Association at: <
19.4 Environmental Reasons for Distress Migration 339
Table 19.3: Incidence of Distress Selling (percentage of villages). Source: Sen/Hashemi/Ahmed (1998) also Ahmed (1999b: 38).
Whether Distress Selling Increased Compared to the Normal Period 340
Land 340
Domestic Animal 340
Other Assets 340
Yes 340
No 340
Yes 340
No 340
Yes 340
No 340
59.0 340
41.0 340
87.1 340
12.9 340
73.8 340
26.2 340
59.8 340
40.2 340
87.9 340
12.1 340
71.8 340
28.2 340
44.2 340
55.8 340
73.5 340
26.5 340
56.3 340
43.7 340
19.5 Environmental Refugees as Stateless Persons 341
Figure 19.3: A snake charmer among the 213 people stranded at Satgachi, West Bengal, pleads for food, on February 4, 2003. Source: Frontline, 20,4 (February 2003): 15-28. Permission to reproduce the photo was obtained from the copyright holder. 342
19.6 A Fence to Contain Environmental Refugees? 342
Figure 19.4: Indian government’s construction of fence on Indo-Bangladesh border. Source: BBC News/South Asia, Tripura, Tuesday, 28 June, 2005 at: <
Figure 19.5: The fence on the Indo-Bangladesh border. Source: Photos by Bapi Roy Choudhury and Shubhashish Roy. Permission was obtained from the copyright holders. 344
19.7 What is to be Done? 344
19.8 Concluding Remarks 346
20 Environmental Scarcities and Civil Violence 348
20.1 Introduction 348
20.2 Toronto Group’s Research and Debates about Environmental Security 349
1. Environmental degradation or depletion as a threat to human health and human well-being stemming from competition with diseas... 351
2. Environmental degradation or depletion stemming from military preparation for armed conflict from the conduct of armed conflict

5. Military and defence intelligence institutions monitoring and enforcing international environmental agreements gathering, an...
1. Environmental scarcity is a significant cause of violence in developing countries. 352
2. The links between environmental scarcity and violence are usually indirect therefore, scarcity’s role as a cause of violence is often not recognized.
3. Environmental scarcity is neither a necessary nor sufficient cause of violence (there is, in fact, no identifiable, non-trivi... 352
4. The response of political, social, and economic systems to such stresses is almost always nonlinear, and therefore predicting the specific incidence of violence is usually impossible. 352
5. The violence that environmental scarcity helps cause tends to the sub-national, diffuse, and chronic outright ‘resource wars...
6. This violence may also disrupt a society’s adaptive mechanisms, contributing to downward, ‘locked in’ spirals of economic crisis, institutional disintegration, and further political violence. 353
7. The incidence of such violence will increase in the future, because a large fraction of the world’s population will remain de... 353
20.3 Critical Role of Environmental Resources 353
Figure 20.1: Supply-induced scarcity. Source: The authors. 355
20.4 Sources of Environmental Scarcity 355
Figure 20.2: Demand-induced scarcity. Source: The authors. 356
Figure 20.3: Structural scarcity. Source: The authors. 357
20.5 Resource Capture and Ecological Marginalization 357
20.6 Links to Civil Violence 358
Figure 20.4: The Toronto Group’s Core Model of the Causal Links between Environmental Scarcity and violence. Source: Homer-Dixon (1999). 359
20.7 Limits of Adaptation 361
20.8 Recommendations 361
21 Linkages Between Sub-national and International Water Conflicts: The Eastern Nile Basin 363
Simon A Mason, Tobias Hagmann, Christine Bichsel, Eva Ludi and Yacob Arsano 363
21.1 Introduction 363
21.2 The Linkages Approach: Addressing Physical and Non- Physical Links 364
21.2.1 Factors Influencing Linkages 366
Figure 21.1: Countries of the Nile Basin. The Nile Basin includes two main sub-basins: the Eastern Nile Sub-basin (Egypt, Ethiop... 367
21.3 International Conflict and Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin 368
21.3.1 Linkage Between Sub-national and International Systems 369
21.3.2 Linkage Between the Global and International Systems 370
Table 21.1: Food security in the Nile Countries. Source: Mason (2004), based on data from: a) FAO (2000b) b) FAO (2000d)
Proportion of population undernourished 1996 -1998 (a) 371
Reasons for food emergency (FAO 2000) (b) 371
Annual cereal import per capita 1989 - 98 (pop. 1998) (c) 371
Human Development Index value 1997 (d) 371
Population in millions 2002 (e) 371
6.7 371
54.3 371
70.3 371
4 371
66 371
31.9 371
8.1 371
32.6 371
36.8 371
24.8 371
21.4 Conclusions 372
22 Extractive Industries and the Environmental Aspects of International Security 373
Saleem H. Ali 373
22.1 Introduction: Redefining Security 373
22.2 Environmental Conflicts in Extractive Industries 374
1. Resource dependence conflict: The reliance on extractive resources for energy needs leading to national necessity for foreign... 374
2. Community conflicts and destabilization: Environmental conflicts caused by non-renewable resource extraction or pollution in ... 374
3. Economic stagnation and security: Dependence on export of extractive industries in source countries leading to economic stagn... 374
4. Resource looting and conflict: The portability or ‘lootability’ of certain extractive resources leading to a ‘resource-captur... 374
5. Criminal cash flows from minerals: The use of revenues from extractive industries to fund international terrorist networks du... 374
6. Monopsonistic power and security: The domination of one firm as the sole purchaser of labour and services is referred to as m... 374
7. Mutual dependence and cooperation: There is a potential for extractive industry projects to lead to collaboration between sta... 375
Table 22.1: Divergent Arguments on Sustainability of Mineral Extraction Activities. Source: The author. 376
1. Keeping the resource in the ground is inherently valuable, and analogous to the preservation of biodiversity. However, since ... 375
2. The environmental damage of the extraction process itself will cause irreversible damage and hence is contrary to any vision ... 375
3. The dependence on the use of mined resources will lead to severe economic and social problems when they are eventually depleted, since there will be a paucity of production opportunities for alternatives. 376
4. The dependence of remote communities on a resource extraction as a sole means of livelihood will lead to economic stagnation after mine closure, and is thus not sustainable without a plan for subsequent development. 376
22.3 National Institutions and Extractive Conflicts 376
22.4 Planning for Mines in Remote Areas: Considering Monopsony 377
22.5 Security and Sustainability: Concluding Thoughts 378
23 Energy Security: Conceptualization of the International Energy Agency (IEA) 382
Klaus-Dietmar Jacoby 382
23.1 Introduction 382
23.2 Evolution of the IEA’s Concept of Energy Security 382
23.2.1 Origins in Security of Oil Supplies for Military Purposes 382
23.2.2 Security of Energy Supply: Building up Oil Stocks 383
23.3 The IEA’s Emergency Response Measures 383
23.3.1 The IEA Coordinated Action in Response to the 1990-1991 Gulf Crisis 384
Figure 23.1: IEA Gulf War Contingency Response Plan. Source: IEA. 384
23.4 Evolution of Oil Markets 384
23.4.1 The Geo-political Situation in the Late 1990’s to the Present and the IEA 385
23.5 IEA Response to the Hurricane Katrina Oil Supply Disruption 385
Figure 23.2: Stock release and increased production, 2005 IEA Collective Action. Source: IEA. 386
Table 23.1: Total IEA Response, 2005 IEA Collective Action. Source: IEA. 386
Total Oil (Overall Results in Million Barrels) 386
23.6 Response Potential 386
23.7 Security of Gas and Electricity Supply 387
Figure 23.3: Oil import dependence in IEA [Import dependence has been calculated as (net imports)/(total primary energy supply + bunkers)]. Source: IEA (2006). 388
Figure 23.4: Natural gas import dependence in IEA [Import dependence has been calculated as (net imports)/(total primary energy supply + bunkers). For natural gas the import dependence for North America is zero]. Source: IEA (2006). 388
Table 23.2: World Primary Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario (Mtoe). Source: IEA (2005a: 82). Permission to reprint was granted by IEA. 389
1971 389
2003 389
2010 389
2020 389
2030 389
2003-2030* 389
23.8 Challenges 389
Table 23.3: World Oil Production in the Reference Scenario (million barrels per day). Source: IEA (2005a: 90). Permission to reprint was granted by IEA. 390
2004 390
2010 390
2020 390
2030 390
2004-2030* 390
23.9 Toward a Sustainable Energy Future 391
24 Scenarios of Energy Demand and Supply until 2100: Implications for Energy Security 392
Leo Schrattenholzer 392
24.1 Introduction 392
24.2 Defining Two Indicators Properly 394
Figure 24.1: Annual Production and Known Reserves of Crude Oil and Natural Gas (1945-1995). Source: Nakicenovic/ McDonald/Grübler (1998). 395
24.3 Typical Results of Long-Term Energy-Economy-Environment Scenarios 395
Table 24.1: Typology of Long-Term Energy-Economy-Environment Scenarios according to IPCC-SRES. Source: Nakicenovic/Swart (2000) Metz/Davidson/Swart/Pan (2001).
24.3.1 Sustainable Development Scenarios 396
24.3.1.1 Definitions 396
1. Economic growth, expressed in terms of GDP per capita, is sustained throughout the whole time horizon of the scenario. 396
2. Socio-economic inequity among world regions (that is, intra-generational equity), expressed as the world-regional differences... 396
3. Long-term environmental stress is mitigated significantly. In particular, carbon emissions at the end of the century are appr... 396
4. The reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios of exhaustible primary energy carriers do not decrease substantially from today’s levels. This criterion reflects the principle of inter-generational equity. 396
24.3.1.2 Characteristics of Sustainable Development Scenarios 396
Table 24.2: Selected results and indicators of sustainable-development scenarios. Indicators of long-term energy security are emphasized. Source: Schrattenholzer/Miketa/Riahi/Roehrl/Strubegger/Totschnig/Zhu (2004). 397
Equity 397
Primary Energy 397
Demand, EJ 397
Natural Gas 397
Crude Oil 397
1990 397
2100 397
1990 397
2050 397
2100 397
1990 397
2100 397
1990 397
2100 397
Cons 397
R/P 397
Cons 397
R/P 397
Cons 397
R/P 397
Cons 397
R/P 397
Table 24.3: Selected results and indicators of CO2 mitigation scenarios. Indicators of long-term energy security are emphasized. Source: Schrattenholzer/Miketa/Riahi/Roehrl/ Strubegger/Totschnig/Zhu (2004). 398
Equity 398
Primary Energy Demand, EJ 398
Natural Gas 398
Crude Oil 398
1990 398
2100 398
1990 398
2050 398
2100 398
1990 398
2100 398
1990 398
2100 398
Cons 398
R/P 398
Cons 398
R/P 398
Cons 398
R/P 398
Cons 398
R/P 398
24.3.2 CO2 Mitigation Scenarios 397
24.3.2.1 Definitions 397
24.3.2.2 Brief Characterization of CO2 Mitigation Scenarios 398
24.3.3 High-Impact Scenarios 398
24.3.3.1 Brief Characterization of High-impact Scenarios 399
Table 24.4: Selected results and indicators of high-impact scenarios. Indicators of long-term energy security are emphasized. Source: Schrattenholzer/Miketa/Riahi/Roehrl/Strubegger/Totschnig/Zhu (2004). 400
Equity 400
Primary Energy Demand, EJ 400
Natural Gas 400
Crude Oil 400
1990 400
2100 400
1990 400
2050 400
2100 400
1990 400
2100 400
1990 400
2100 400
Cons 400
R/P 400
Cons 400
R/P 400
Cons 400
R/P 400
Cons 400
R/P 400
24.4 General Conclusions and Policy Implications 399
25 Projections of Fossil Energy Reserves and Supply until 2050 (2100): Implications for Longer-term Energy Supply Security 402
Werner Zittel and Joerg Schindler 402
25.1 Introduction 402
25.2 Oil Supply 402
25.2.1 General Pattern of Oil Production 402
25.2.2 Countries outside OPEC and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) 403
Figure 25.1: Oil production of countries/regions outside OPEC and FSU (Denmark, UK, Canada, Norway, Alaska, USA, Mexico, Brazil,... 404
25.2.3 Former Soviet Union (FSU) 404
25.2.4 OPEC Member Countries 405
Table 25.1: Remaining proven oil reserves for ‘ME Five’, according to major estimates. Sources: [1] O& GJ, 19 December 2005 (for ...
Oil & Gas Journal [1]
BP Statistical Review [2] 406
Colin Campbell [3] 406
Bakhtiari [4] 406
35-45 406
80 - 100 406
45 - 55 406
120 - 140 406
40 - 50 406
320 - 390 406
25.2.5 World Oil Production Is Approaching Its Peak 406
25.3 Natural Gas 406
25.3.1 ‘Top-down’ Scenario of the Global Availability of Natural Gas 407
Figure 25.2: Annual gas production 1920-2004 and extrapolation based on a bell-shaped profile and an estimated ultimate recovery... 408
25.3.2 ‘Bottom-up’ Scenario of the Global Availability of Natural Gas 408
25.3.2.1 North America 408
25.3.2.2 The United Kingdom 408
Figure 25.3: Gas production forecast for Russia. Source: Laherrere (2003) LBST estimate (2004).
25.3.2.3 Europe 409
25.3.2.4 Russia 409
Figure 25.4: Worldwide Gas production According to LBST Scenario Calculations. Source: IHS Energy (2005) BP Statistical Review of Energy (2005)
25.3.2.5 Global Analysis 409
25.4 Fossil Scenarios 410
Figure 25.5: ‘High fossil’ scenarios of future production of fossil and nuclear fuels based on peak oil before 2010 and a declin... 411
25.5 Renewable Energy Scenario 411
Figure 25.6: ‘Low fossil’ scenario of future production of fossil and nuclear fuels. Assuming oil peaking in 2010 and decline rates of 5 per cent per year. Source: for oil, gas, coal, and nuclear scenario: LBST (Schindler/Zittel 2006). 412
Figure 25.7: Possible market penetration of renewable energy sources. Sources: LBST (Schindler/Zittel 2006). 413
25.6 Transition towards Sustainability 413
25.7 Conclusions 414
26 Technical and Economic Potentials of Biomass until 2050: Regional Relevance for Energy Security 415
André P.C. Faaij 415
26.1 Introduction 415
26.2 Developments in Global Bio- energy Use 416
26.2.1 Current Use of Biomass 417
26.2.2 Growth of Modern Bio Energy 417
26.2.3 Market Developments 418
26.3 Biomass Resource Potentials: Long-term Outlook 418
Table 26.1: Overview of the global potential bio-energy supply in the long term for a number of categories, and the main pre-con... 419
26.4 Markets for Bio Energy 421
26.4.1 Heat, Power, and Fuels from Biomass: Key Markets 421
Table 26.2: Generic overview of performance projections for different options and biomass markets on shorter (~5) and longer (> ~20) years. Source: Based on data in Faaij (2006).
26.4.2 Production of Liquid and Gaseous Fuels from Biomass 423
26.5 Biomass in the Total World Energy Supply 424
Figure 26.1: Projections for global final energy demand for the four IPCC scenarios and energy models as used in Fig. 2.2. (A1, A2, B1, B2). Source: Based on IPCC (2000). 425
Figure 26.2: Geographical potential of woody biomass energy crops as assessed for the four SRES scenarios over time, as well as the simulated total primary energy consumption. Source: Based on Hoogwijk/Faaij/Eickhout/de Vries/Turkenburg (2005). 425
26.6 Market Development and International Trade 426
1. The transport sector is particularly difficult to tackle in terms of GHG emission reductions biomass is the only option for supplying (liquid) carbon neutral hydrocarbons.
2. The strategic importance of reducing the dependency on oil, imported from a declining number of exporting countries that expe... 426
3. Technological developments offer clear perspectives of competitive and efficient production of biofuels from biomass, most no... 426
4. In addition, in the medium term (e.g. after 2015), biomass use for transport fuels may prove to become a more effective way t... 426
26.7 Closing Remarks 427
26.7.1 Domestic Production vs. Import/Export 428
26.7.2 Solving Sustainability Issues: International Classification and Certification of Biomass 428
26.7.3 Setting up Technical Biomass Standards 429
26.7.4 Lowering of Trade Barriers 429
26.7.5 Building up Long-term Sustainable International Bio-energy Trade 429
26.7.6 Biomass, Biofuels, Biomass Markets, and Energy Security 429
27 Solar Energy on a Global Scale: Its Impact on Security 431
David Faiman 431
27.1 Introduction 431
27.2 The Magnitude of the Problem 431
Figure 27.1: World electricity production during the years 1994-2003. Growth rate = 395 TWh per year. Source: IEA (2003). 432
Table 27.1: World electricity generation statistics on a regional basis and linear projections to the year 2012. [*Generation fo... 433
Production in 2003 [TWh] 433
Percentage of World Production 433
Rate of Increase [TWh y-1] 433
Goodness of fit (R2) 433
Projection to 2012 [TWh] 433
Figure 27.2: Distribution of the world’s deserts. Source: U.S. Geological Survey at: <
27.3 Photovoltaics - The Concentrator Variety 434
Figure 27.3: CPV cell module exposed at 1000X at the 400 m2 PETAL solar dish test facility in Sede Boqer, Israel. Source: Photo by David Faiman. 435
27.4 Storage Requirements for CPV 435
Figure 27.4: A large pre-commercial CPV system under test in Phoenix, AZ, USA, consists of 5760 plastic fresnel lenses, which each focus sunlight onto one of a similar number of individual 1 cm x 1 cm silicon CPV cells. Source: Photo by David Faiman. 436
27.5 Land Requirements for CPV 437
27.6 Economic Assumptions for CPV Construction 437
Table 27.2: Estimated area of desert land required for enabling each geographical region to freeze its fossil fuel requirements ... 438
Annual increase in power generation 438
[TWh y-1] 438
Solar land 438
requirement 438
[km2 y-1] 438
Nearest 438
desert 438
Size of desert [km2] 438
27.6.1 Electricity Tariff 438
Figure 27.5: Electricity production in Mexico during the years 1994-2003. Growth rate = 8.2 TWh per year. Source: IEA (2003). 439
27.7 Some Specific Examples 439
27.7.1 Mexico 439
Figure 27.6: Electricity production in Chile during the years 1994-2003. Growth rate = 2.5 TWh per year. Source: IEA (2003). 440
27.7.2 Chile 440
Figure 27.7: Electricity production in Spain during the years 1994-2003. Growth rate = 10.6 TWh per year. Source: IEA (2003). 441
27.7.3 Spain 441
Figure 27.8: Electricity production in South Africa during the years 1994-2003. Growth rate = 4.0 TWh per year. Source: IEA (2003). 442
Figure 27.9: Electricity production in Saudi Arabia during the years 1994-2003. Growth rate = 5.7 TWh per year. Source: IEA (2003). 443
27.7.4 South Africa 442
27.7.5 Saudi Arabia. 443
Figure 27.10: Electricity production in India during the years 1994-2003. Growth rate = 23.4 TWh per year. Source: IEA (2003). 444
27.7.6 India 444
Figure 27.11: Electricity production in Australia during the years 1994-2003. Growth rate = 6.6 TWh per year. Source: IEA (2003). 445
27.7.7 Australia 445
27.8 Conclusions 446
28 Solar Energy as a Key for Power and Water in the Middle East and North Africa 447
Franz Trieb, Wolfram Krewitt, and Nadine May 447
28.1 Introduction 447
Figure 28.1: Countries of the EU-MENA region analysed within the MED-CSP Study Source: MED-CSP (2005) that is co- authored by these authors. 448
1. Can renewable energy sources cope with the growing energy demand of the Middle East and North Africa? 448
2. Are renewable energy sources too expensive for this region? 448
3. Is there a solution for the problem of water scarcity in the MENA region? 448
4. Is a trans-national EUMENA partnership for renewable energy a viable option for development? 448
28.2 Perspectives of Energy and Water in the Euro-Mediterranean until 2050 448
Figure 28.2: Gross electricity consumption of countries analysed. Source: MED-CSP 2005 that is co-authored by these authors. 449
Figure 28.3: Water demand projection in the MENA countries in the MED-CSP scenario. Water demand already exceeds the sustainable resources of fresh water today, with an alarmingly increasing deficit. Source: MED- CSP (2005). 450
28.3 Renewable Energy Sources are Plentiful 449
Figure 28.4: Maps of renewable energy yields of different sources in the EU-MENA (darker colours indicate higher potentials per unit area on the colour code see: MED-CSP (2005).
Figure 28.5: Annual Direct Solar Irradiance in the Southern EU-MENA Region. The primary energy received by each square meter of land equals 1-2 barrels of oil per year. 451
Table 28.1: Some characteristics of contemporary power technologies. Source: The authors. 452
Unit Capacity 452
Capacity Credit 452
Capacity Factor 452
Resource 452
Applications 452
Comment 452
1 kW - 5 MW 452
0 - 30 % 452
15 - 50 % 452
1 W - 5 MW 452
0 % 452
15 - 25 % 452
1 kW - 25 MW 452
50 - 90 % 452
40 - 60 % 452
25 - 50 MW 452
90 % 452
40 - 90 % 452
1 kW - 1000 MW 452
50 - 90 % 452
10 - 90 % 452
100 - 200 MW 452
10 to 70 % 452
depending on storage 452
20 to 70 % 452
10 kW - 200 MW 452
0 to 90 % 452
depending on 452
storage and 452
hybridization 452
20 to 90 % 452
0.5 - 100 MW 452
90 % 452
10 - 90 % 452
5 - 500 MW 452
90 % 452
40 - 90 % 452
> 500 MW
90 % 452
90 % 452
Figure 28.6: Share of different technologies for electricity generation in the year 2000. Source: MED-CSP (2005). 453
28.4 A Scenario for Energy and Water Security 452
Figure 28.7: Total electricity consumption and share of different technologies for electricity generation in the analysed countries in the year 2050 according to the MED-CSP scenario. Source: MED-CSP (2005). 454
Figure 28.8: Annual electricity demand and generation within the countries analysed in the MED-CSP scenario. Source: MED-CSP (2005). 454
Figure 28.9: Installed power capacity and peak load within the analysed countries in the MED-CSP scenario. Source: MED-CSP (2005). 455
Figure 28.10: Example of electricity costs and learning in the MED-CSP scenario. Source: MED-CSP (2005). 456
Figure 28.11: CO2 emissions of electricity generation in million tons per year for all countries for the MED-CSP scenario and emissions that would occur in a business as usual case (BAU). Source: MED-CSP (2005) to which the authors contributed. 457
28.5 Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation 457
Figure 28.12: A new circuit of development: CO2 reduction in Europe fosters development for North Africa and the Middle East. So... 458
Figure 28.13: Three samples of high voltage direct current (HVDC) interconnections between Europe, the Middle East, and North Af... 459
Figure 28.14: Vision of a future Trans-Mediterranean HVDC electricity grid interconnecting sites of high renewable electricity potentials in Europe and beyond. Source: Trieb and Mueller-Steinhagen (2007). 460
Figure 28.15: A scenarioa) of the power sector in 30 European countries aiming at economic and ecological sustainability using a... 461
28.6 Conclusions 462
29 Energy Security in the Arab World 463
Mohammad Selim and Abdullah Sahar 463
29.1 Introduction: The Concept of Energy Security 463
29.2 Arab Conceptualizations of Energy Security 464
29.3 Energy-related Threats in the Arab World 465
29.4 Arab Strategies to Deal with Energy-Related Threats 469
29.5 Energy and Conflicts in the Arab World 470
29.6 Conclusion: Towards a Securitization of Energy in the Arab World: 471
30 Turkey: Energy Security and Central Asia: The Politics and Economics of the So-called Great Game 472
Gareth M. Winrow 472
30.1 Introduction 472
30.2 What is Meant by ‘Energy Security’? 472
30.3 Energy Security and the IEA 473
30.4 Turkey’s Energy Needs and Energy Policy 473
Table 30.1: Electricity Demand Scenarios by MENR (kWh). Source: Isik (2004: 4). 474
Main Scenario 474
Low demand growth scenario 474
High demand growth scenario 474
163 474
159 474
168 474
242 474
217 474
246 474
499 474
407 474
571 474
Table 30.2: Natural Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios (bcm). Source: BOTAS website. See at: < http:// www.botas.gov.tr/eng/naturalgas/ng_sup_dem. asp>
2005 475
2006 475
2008 475
2010 475
2015 475
2020 475
30.5 The ‘Great Game’ 476
30.6 Turkey, the Great Game and Energy Security 477
30.7 Conclusion 478
31 Towards a Sustainable Energy System for Africa: An African Perspective on Energy Security 480
Nogoye Thiam 480
31.1 Introduction 480
Figure 31.1: 1973 and 2003 Regional Shares of Total Final Energy Consumption. Source: IEA (International Energy Agency) at: <
Figure 31.2: Africa’s Share of Total Primary Energy Supply in 2003. Source: IEA (2006b) at: <
Figure 31.3: Energy consumption profiles for Mali and Senegal in 2004. Source: Produced by this author based on annual reports by the National Ministries of Energy in Mali and Senegal. 482
31.2 Dual and Vulnerable Energy System 481
31.2.1 Oil Dependence 482
1. The increased support for the energy sector resulted in a reduction of public spending for health and education. 483
2. This can impede the evolution of alternative energy sources for electricity and transport. 483
31.2.2 Dependence on Biomass 483
31.3 Toward a Sustainable Energy System 483
Figure 31.4: Map of oil and gas fields and pipelines in West Africa: Source: U.S. Department of Energy at: <
31.3.1 Supply Side Management 484
31.3.1.1 Towards a Diversification of Sources of Energy Supply 484
Figure 31.5: West African Gas Pipeline (WAGP). Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration at: <

3. Availability of a less polluting and more affordable energy (i.e. less greenhouse gas emissions) 485
4. Speeding up of regional integration and promoting economic and social growth in different nations. 485
31.3.1.2 Towards Diversification of Energy Sources 485

2. process and use pourghere oil to fuel 20 4x4 vehicles of 10 to 20 HP CV for public transportation, 486
3. increase the nation’s production of pourghere seeds, through the development of adequate lands in the rural areas. 486
Figure 31.6: Map of Mali. Source: The University of Texas at Austin, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection at: <
Figure 31.7: Map of ECOWAS countries. Source: University of Purdue, West Africa Power Pool Development Group, ECOWAS at:<
31.3.2 Demand Side Management 488
31.3.2.1 Actions to Manage the Oil Demand 488
31.3.2.2 Actions to Manage Biomass Demand 489
Table 31.1: Stoves Efficiency. Source: Ministry of Energy and Mines and PERACOD (2005): “Estimates of domestic fuel consumption in Senegal from 1990 to 2004.” 490
Firewood stoves 490
Charcoal stoves 490
Traditional 490
Improved 490
Traditional 490
Improved 490
11% 490
35% 490
12% 490
45% 490
31.4 Conclusion 490
32 Energy Security: Economic, Environmental, and Societal Opportunity for the North - Potential of Renewables to Avoid Conflicts? 492
Rolf Linkohr 492
32.1 Introduction 492
32.2 Growing Energy Consumption 492
32.3 Dominant Role of the United States 493
32.4 Is Diversification an Answer? 494
32.5 Global Energy Outlook 496
32.6 Solutions? 496
32.7 Solar Visions 497
Figure 32.1: Solar cell land requirements where six boxes (100 km on a side), in areas of high solar radiation, can each provide 3.3 TW of electrical power. Source: Smalley (2005). 498
32.8 Reality Does Not Necessarily Follow Our Scenarios 499
1. Solar energy has the potential to make the world independent from other energy sources like uranium, coal, oil or gas. 499
2. The more we rely on renewable energy sources the lesser we risk resource wars. 499
3. Energy interdependence guarantees peace and development. 499
32.9 What Will or Might be a Realistic Perspective? 501
32.10 Summary and Conclusions 503
33 Food as a New Human and Livelihood Security Challenge 505
Úrsula Oswald Spring 505
33.1 Introduction 505
33.2 Conceptual Considerations and Clarifications 506
33.2.1 Food Security 507
Box 33.1: The evolution of the concept of food security within the FAO. Text is in the public domain. 508
33.2.2 Food Sovereignty 509
Box 33.2: Concept of food sovereignty as developed by social movements. Text is in the public domain. 510

c.) therefore, access to land, credit and basic production means for women and girls at home and in the community is a guarantee... 510

g.) the obligation of national and local governments to improve the food disposal of its citizens through stimulus of production... 510

k.) links among environmental services, agriculture, territorial planning and democratic participation in the decision-making pr... 510
1) In most countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), women represent: 33 per cent of the rural labour force 70 per cent of paid ru...
2) Helminths are worms and their eggs living inside of a human organism or animals. Protozoa are single cell organism able to di... 510
Box 33.3: Food Sovereignty Document, September 2005. Source: < http://www. aefjn.be/index.php?option= com_content&
33.2.3 Survival Strategies and Livelihood 513
Figure 33.1: Conditions of the Structural Adjustment Policy (SAP) of the IMF for Debt Repayment in Developing Countries. Source: Strahm/Oswald (1990: 130). 514
Box 33.4: Major survival strategies. Source: Oswald (1991, 2007b, 2008a). 515
1. Massive rural migration to urban slums 515
2. Illegal occupation of marginal and risky land 515
3. Construction of shelter with precarious materials from waste 515
4. Chronic unemployment of men and lack of cash 515
5. Selling unnecessary goods 515
6. Credits from family members, neighbours, and local shops 515
7. Economic crises deepened and food became scarce 515
8. Collection of perished fruit and vegetables 515
9. Collective popular kitchen 515
10. Rotation of women in collective community work (kitchen, child rearing, paid jobs) 515
11. Common struggle for basic services (electricity, water, access, community centre) 515
12. Communal organization for the legalization of land and services 515
13. Struggle for public subsidies and poverty alleviation programmes 515
14. Temporary paid work 515
15. Multiple informal activities: services, handicraft, food, washing, ironing, services, prostitution 515
16. Social organization against organized crime and gangs 515
17. Empowerment and fight against interfamilial violence 515
18. Social and economic consolidation of the neighbourhood and the families 515
19. Horizontal and vertical integration of micro-business chains with micro-credit and technical improvements, enclosed under the term ‘economy of solidarity’ or ‘social economy’ 515
. 515
33.3 The State of Art of Food Security 515
33.3.1 The World 515
Figure 33.2: Vicious circle of hunger, undernourishment, poverty, and ignorance. Source: Chávez/Ávila/Shamah (2007: 208). 516
Figure 33.3: Food Production, Prices, and Undernourishment. Globally an estimated 852 million people were undernourished in 2000... 517
Figure 33.4: The Global Hunger Index Progress towards the MDGs. Source: IFPRI (2007). The map is in the public domain at: <
Figure 33.5: Proportion of Undernourished in Developing Regions. Actual and FAO Baseline Projections. Source: FAO/ IFAD/WFP (2002: 9). 518
Table 33.1: Models of World Global Food Consumption by Social Classes. Source: Lang/Heaseman (2004 or 2005: 195), modified by Oswald. 519
High 519
Medium 519
Poor 519
33.3.1.1 Food Prices and Trade 519
33.3.1.2 Food Aid and Internal Gaps 519
Figure 33.6: International migrants and refugees (1960-2005). Source: UN (2006) at: <
Figure 33.7: Undernourished Population in Latin America and in the Caribbean. Percentage of Population with Malnutrition (1998-2000). Source: The estimates by CEPAL (2004) are based on FAO data. 521
33.3.2 Latin America 521
33.3.3 Mexico 522
Table 33.2: Social Vulnerability and Internal Gaps in Wealth and Income in Mexico. Source: INEGI (2005) and Bank of Mexico (2004). 522
% of population 522
% of national wealth 522
% of financial savings 522
0.23 522
40.3 522
78.0 522
52.7 522
18.4 522
10.0 522
Figure 33.8: Comparison of national surveys on food, nutritional stage of children below 5 years of age, measuring size and weight in relationship to age. Source: National Nutritional Survey (INNSZ 1974, 1979, 1989, 1996). 523
Table 33.3: Nutritional Priority in 2,443 Municipalities in Mexico. Source: Chávez/ Ávila/Shamana (2006) based on the National Survey of Nutrition (INNSZ 2005).
Municipalities 523
Level of under- nourishment 523
Low size/children 523
Affected municipalities 523
Number 523
% 523
number 523
% 523
247 523
10.1 523
50 523
100 523
222 523
417 523
17.1 523
40 523
49.9 523
510 523
486 523
20.0 523
30 523
39.9 523
365 523
906 523
37.9 523
20 523
29.9 523
737 523
387 523
15.8 523
10 523
19.9 523
369 523
2,443 523
100.0 523
0 523
9.9 523
240 523
Figure 33.9: Map of municipalities in Mexico with high and very high needs for nutritional attention. Source: Chávez/ Ávila/Samanah (2007), based on the National Survey of Nutrition (2005). 524
33.4 Three Models of Food Production 524
33.4.1 The ‘Productivity’ Model 524
33.4.2 The ‘Life Science’ Model 525
33.4.3 ‘Green Agriculture’ Model 526
33.4.4 Food Perspectives: Models of Production, Population Growth, Climate Change, and Environmental Deterioration 527
Table 33.4: Advantages and disadvantages in the food production sectors. Source: Compiled by the author. 529
Food Security: 529
‘Sciences of Life’ 529
Food Sovereignty: 529
‘Sustainable Production’ 529
33.5 Conclusions: Food Security with Self-sufficiency, Food Sovereignty, and Cultural Integration 530
FoodQuantity(mt) CropYield(mt/ha) 531
1. Global Policy: The Special Rapporteur of the UN for Food Rights, Jean Ziegler, said in November 2005 that there “are no secre... 531
Figure 33.10: Programme ‘Fome zero’ (without hunger) in Brazil. Source: Instituto Cidadania (2001), São Paulo, Brazil. 532
2. Poverty Alleviation: Jeffrey Sachs (2004 or 2005) linked the multidimensional roots of hunger to poverty. In the Kenyan village of Sauri he tried ‘the big five’ with US$ 70 per person and year, including retroviral against HIV/AIDS. 531
3. Support for women in agriculture: Women are not only more affected by modernization, they represent also an alternative for self-sufficiency and to the food supplies by TNEs. In poor countries women produce most of the local food (FAO 2002 2005b).
4. Regional Food Sovereignty: Via Campesina, CLOC (2004), MST (2005), and the Peasant University of the South (UNICAM) are promo... 532
5. Food policy to alleviate hunger: Brazil proposed a model of food support for popular sectors linking the small production sys... 532
Figure 33.11: Food sovereignty: equal access to food and symetrical access to food consumption. Source: Chávez/ Ávila/Shamah (2007) modified by Oswald (2007a).
6. A well developed system of periodic measurement of basic indicators of undernourishment is needed, above all for children bel... 532
7. Education, training, and the rescue of traditional elements of food culture are basic requirements to improve the nutritional... 533
34 Governance of Food Security in the 21st Century 535
M. A. Mohamed Salih 535
34.1 Introduction 535
34.2 Illustration: Food Security as Food Safety 536
34.3 Conflating Securities: Human, Food and National 537
34.4 Linkages 538
34.5 Food Security and Democracy 538
34.6 Illustration: Food Security, Food Scarcity and Famine 539
34.7 Harnessing Change 540
34.8 Conclusion 541
35 A Research Strategy to Secure Energy, Water, and Food via Developing Sustainable Land and Water Management in Turkey 542
Selim Kapur, Burcak Kapur, Erhan Akca, Hari Eswaran and Mustafa AydÆn 542
35.1 Introduction 542
Figure 35.1: The irrigation basins of the GAP. Source: < www.gap.gov.tr (5 May 2005)>
35.2 The Basis for SLWM 543
35.2.1 Energy Context 543
35.2.2 Food Quantity and Quality Context: Food Security 545
Table 35.1: Comparison of the whole product in Turkey with increase of some crops after the GAP irrigation. 545
Total Production (1986) 545
GAP Production 545
(GAP° 100)/ Turkey 545
Figure 35.2: Agricultural added value in the GAP Per Capita. 545
35.2.3 Water Security Context: Water Availability and Distribution 545
35.3 Research Strategy for the GAP Region 546
35.3.1 Elements of a Strategic Plan 546
35.3.2 Research Strategy 548
1. Has the quality of life of communities in the area been significantly enhanced? 548
2. What changes can be recommended to maximize profits and minimize risks? 548
3. What components of the ecosystem are being aided or hampered by irrigation? 548
4. Is land degradation (or components of it) being changed and in what direction? 548
5. Is the productivity of the soil resource base being attained and maintained? 548
6. Is the current pattern and mix of land use the best for the goal of sustainability? 548
35.3.3 The Harran Project: A Case Study 548
Figure 35.3: Actual and potential salinity of the Harran Plain in 1985. Sources: Dinç/Kapur (1991) ×enol/Ye²ingil/Dinç/Öztürk (1991)
Figure 35.4: The land suitability map of the Harran Plain. Source: ×enol/Ye²ingil/Dinç/Öztürk (1991). 549
Figure 35.5: Harran project activity chart. Source: modified from Kapur/Eswaran/ Akça/Dingil (2002). 550
35.4 Conclusion 549
36 Sustainable Livelihood Security. Evolution and Application 553
Hans-Georg Bohle 553
36.1 Introduction 553
36.2 The Concept and its Principles 553
Figure 36.1: The Sustainable Livelihood Framework. Source: DFID (1999). This figure is in the public domain. 554
36.3 Origins and Evolution of the Concept 555
36.4 The Normative Basis 556
36.5 The Discursive Context: Human Security 557
36.6 Application of the Concept 558
36.7 Evaluation: New Frontiers in Livelihoods Research 559
36.8 Conclusion 560
37 Global Health Security: The WHO Response to Outbreaks Past and Future 561
Guénaël Rodier and Mary Kay Kindhauser 561
37.1 Introduction 561
Table 37.1: Cases and deaths from recent outbreaks compared with those from persistent infectious disease threats (a) numbers infected in June 2005). Source: WHO Statistics at
Year 561
Cases 561
Deaths 561
2001 561
22 561
5 561
2003 561
8098 561
774 561
2004 - June 2005 561
108 561
54 561
2004 561
39.4 milliona 561
3.1 million 561
2004 561
8.97 milliona 561
1.7 million 561
2004 561
400 million 561
1 million 561
37.2 Evolution of the Health Security Concept within WHO 562
37.3 Anthrax, SARS and an Ominous Influenza Virus 562
37.4 Microscopic Adversaries: Well- equipped to Invade, Evade, and Surprise 564
37.5 Changing Perceptions of Security 565
37.6 New Tools: Real-time Disease Intelligence 568
37.7 Tools Refined in Practice 569
37.8 Revised International Health Regulations: Faster, Stronger, Broader 571
37.9 Strengthened Defences, Formidable Foes 571
37.10 Conclusions and Remaining Needs 572
38 Health and Human Security in the 21st Century 573
Jennifer Leaning 573
38.1 Introduction 573
38.2 Major Global Issues 573
38.2.1 Globalization 573
Figure 38.1: Population of the World 1950-2050 according to different projection variants. Source: Created by the author based o... 574
38.2.2 Demographic Change 574
Figure 38.2: Urban and rural population of the world, 1950-2030. Source: Created by the author based on data from: United Nation... 575
38.2.3 Global Environmental Change and Global Warming 574
38.2.4 Growing Disparities Between the Rich and the Poor 575
Figure 38.3: Growing Disparities between the Rich and the Poor. Source: Based on data from: UNDP (2006: 288-290). In 1980 data were available on fewer countries than in 2004. 576
38.2.5 Forced and Distress Migration 576
38.3 Human Security 576
38.4 Health Security 577
38.4.1 Health Security: An Issue of International, National and Human Security 577
38.4.2 Health Security from a Human Security Perspective 577
38.4.3 Health Security Issues in the Developing World 578
38.4.4 Health Security Issues in the Developed World 578
38.4.5 Requirements for Achieving Health Security 579
38.4.6 Health Security and Social Welfare in North and South 579
38.4.7 Health Security Challenges of Aging Societies 579
38.4.8 Priorities of Health Security in the Developing World 580
38.5 Impact of Global Trends on Health and Human Security 580
Figure 38.4: Change in water run-off compared with average 1961-1990 (%) for 2050 based on IPCC Scenario A1. Source: UNDP (2006:162) at: <
38.5.1 Accelerated Forced Migration 580
38.5.2 Increased Potential for Armed Conflict 581
Figure 38.5: International Tourist Arrivals (1950-2005). Source: Created by author based on data from: UNWTO (2006: Annex 3) at: <
38.5.3 Greater Risk of Pandemic Disease 582
38.5.4 Greater Burden of Social Distress 582
38.6 Response Strategies 582
39 AIDS - Challenge to Health Security in Africa: Politics in Africa and Case Study on Botswana 584
Fred Eboko and Tereza Nemeckova 584
39.1 Introduction 584
39.2 HIV/AIDS in Africa 584
Table 39.1: HIV and AIDS statistics in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2001 and 2007. Source: UNAIDS (2007: 7). 585
Adults and children living with HIV/AIDS 585
Adults and children newly infected with HIV 585
Adult prevalence (%) 585
Adult and children deaths due to AIDS 585
22,5 million [20,9 - 24,3] 585
1,7 million [1,4 - 2,4] 585
5,0 % [4,6 - 5,5] 585
1,6 million [1,5 - 2,0] 585
20,9 million [19,7 - 23,6 585
2,2 million [1,7 - 2,7] 585
5,8 % [5,5 - 6,6] 585
1,4 million [1,3 - 1,9] 585
39.3 Securitization of HIV/AIDS 585
39.4 HIV/AIDS in Africa and International Security 586
39.5 International Security between ‘Health Security’ in the South and ‘Economic Security’ in the North, or American Domination vs. Multilateralism 587
Figure 39.1: Political Map of Southern Africa (2005). Source: University of Texas at Austin, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection. at: <
Table 39.2: Botswana key figures (2007). Source: OECD (2007: 135). 588
Population 588
1,8 million 588
11,611 USD 588
34.4 years 588
18.8 per cent 588
39.6 Case study of Botswana 588
39.6.1 Extent of the HIV/AIDS Pandemic 589
Table 39.3: HIV prevalence by residence and age (2003), in percentages. Source: AIDS surveillance 2003 at: <
15-19 589
20-24 589
25-29 589
30-34 589
35-39 589
40-49 589
24,1 589
40,4 589
50,4 589
42,2 589
35,2 589
34,6 589
22,1 589
37,9 589
49,4 589
47,5 589
44,5 589
34,4 589
Table 39.4: HIV prevalence among men and women aged 15-49 years (2003), in percentages. Source: AIDS surveillance 2003 at: <
15-19 589
20-24 589
25-29 589
30-34 589
35-39 589
40-49 589
15,4 589
29,7 589
54,1 589
61,5 589
55,9 589
45 589
1,2 589
8,4 589
29,7 589
49,9 589
59,6 589
56,9 589
39.6.2 Government Response to the Epidemic 590
39.6.2.1 HIV/AIDS Prevention 590
39.6.2.2 HIV/AIDS Treatment - MASA Programme 592
39.6.2.3 Active Role of the Private Sector 592
39.7 Conclusion 593
40 Health and Poverty as Challenges for Human Security: Two Case Studies on Northern Vietnam and Bangladesh 594
Isabel Fischer and Mohammad Musfequs Salehin 594
40.1 Introduction 594
40.2 The Concept of Human Security 594
40.2.1 Human, Livelihood and Health Security 596
40.2.2 Conceptual and Empirical Debates on Human and Health Security in South and Southeast Asia 596
Figure 40.1: Human Security and its Relationship to Health. Source: Chen/Narasimhan (2003: 6). 597
40.2.3 Poverty, Health and Human Security 597
Figure 40.2: Health, poverty and human security interactions. Source: Salehin (2005: 10). 598
40.3 Case Studies on Northern Vietnam and Bangladesh 598
40.3.1 Case Study on Northern Vietnam 598
40.3.2 Case Study Bangladesh 600
40.3.3 Lessons Learned 601
Table 40.1: Country Facts Vietnam, Bangladesh and Japan. Source: UNDP’s HDR 2007/2008, selected Indicators for Vietnam, Bangladesh and Japan at: <
Vietnam 602
Bangladesh 602
Japan 602
40.4 Conclusion and Recommendations 603
41 Global Trade: Balancing Existing and Future Regional Water Resource Deficits 606
Tony Allan 606
41.1 Introduction: What is Water Security? 606
41.2 Political Economy of Regional and Global Water Security 608
41.3 Water Availability and Future Requirements 609
41.4 Global Water Resources: A Summary 611
Table 41.1: Estimates of global use of water and 'trade' in virtual water. Source: Hoekstra/Chapagain (2004) and author’s estimates (*) 612
Used in economies 612
Proportion of global food prod- uction 612
‘Traded’ 612
Total 612
applied 612
Losses 612
Used 612
km3 612
. 612
. 612
. 612
. 612
60 612
40 612
. 612
. 612
. 612
. 612
41.5 Driving Forces and Scenarios 613
41.5.1 Demographic Trends and Demographic Transition 613
Table 41.2: Population estimates for more and less developed economies - UN medium variant in millions. Source: UN (2004), Medium Variant, US Census Bureau, historic estimates and author’s interpolations. 613
1800 613
1850 613
1900 613
1950 613
2000 613
2050 613
2100 613
300 613
400 613
550 613
812 613
1193 613
1236 613
1100 613
660 613
850 613
1100 613
1707 613
4892 613
7840 613
7500 613
960 613
1250 613
1650 613
2519 613
6085 613
9076 613
8600 613
Table 41.3: Water use estimates per head in litres per day assuming level use by less developed economies and a reduction by users in more developed economies. Source: Hoekstra/ Chapagain (2004) and author’s estimates. 614
1800 614
1850 614
1900 614
1950 614
2000 614
2050 614
2100 614
950 614
1100 614
1200 614
1400 614
1700 614
1500 614
1400 614
900 614
900 614
900 614
900 614
900 614
900 614
900 614
Table 41.4: Water use in more and less developed regions on the basis of population estimates [medium variant] and projected use in Laces same as in 2000. Source: Author’s estimates. 614
1800 614
1850 614
1900 614
1950 614
2000 614
2050 614
2100 614
285 614
440 614
660 614
1137 614
2028 614
1854 614
1540 614
661 614
851 614
1101 614
1708 614
4893 614
7841 614
7501 614
41.5.2 Water Use Efficiency in Agriculture 614
41.5.3 Water Use Efficiency in Industry and the Services Sector 614
Figure 41.1: The national water footprint per capita and the contribution of different consumption categories for some selected countries. Source: Hoekstra/Chapagain (2007: 44). Permission to reprint this figure has been granted. 615
41.5.4 The Dynamics of Food Consumption Patterns 614
41.5.5 The Dynamics of Consumption Patterns of Industrial Commodities and Services 615
41.5.5.1 The Experience of Industrialization and Post-industrialization 615
Table 41.5: Estimates of water use per head - more and less developed economies. Source: Chapagain/Hoekstra (2004b) and author’s estimates. 616
1800 616
1850 616
1900 616
1950 616
2000 616
2050 616
2100 616
950 616
1100 616
1200 616
1400 616
1700 616
1500 616
1400 616
900 616
900 616
900 616
900 616
950 616
1500 616
1400 616
41.5.5.2 Consideration of the Environmental Services of Water 615
41.6 Conclusion: Will There be Enough Water? 616
Table 41.6: Global Virtual Water Crop and Livestock Related ‘Exports’ and ‘Imports’ by region. Source: Chapagain/ Hoekstra (2004a): 46. 617
42 Water Wars in India 619
Vandana Shiva 619
42.1 Introduction 619
42.2 Large Dams and Water Conflicts 619
Table 42.1: The Himalayan and the Peninsular Components. Source: Compiled by the author. 621
The Himalayan Component 621
The Peninsular Component 621
42.3 The River Linking Project: New Conflicts in the Making 621
42.4 Water Wars Due to Privatization 622
43 Sustainability of Environmental Regimes: The Mekong River Commission 623
Bastien Affeltranger 623
43.1 Introduction 623
43.2 From Water-related Hazards to Data Needs 624
Table 43.1: Mekong River Basin - Hydrological contri- butions from riparian countries Source: Wolf (1999a). 624
Basin area (km·) 624
Basin share (%) 624
Table 43.2: Estimation of damages of the 2005 flood in the Lower Mekong countries (consolidation of data considered as sufficiently coherent for comparison. Source: MRC Website at: <
43.3 The Politics of Hydrological Data 625
43.3.1 Institutional Instability 625
43.3.2 Competition over Water in the Mekong River Basin 626
43.3.3 Values of Hydrological Data 626
43.3.4 Consequences 626
43.4 Institutional Sustainability of the MRC 627
43.4.1 The Mekong Commission: Ten Years of Commitment 627
43.4.2 The Mekong Commission: Ten Years of Tensions 627
43.4.3 Line Agencies: Last Frontier for Hydrological Cooperation? 628
43.5 Do Mekong Countries Need the Mekong River Commission? 630
43.6 Conclusion 630
44 Water Scarcity and Political Wrangling: Security in the Euphrates and Tigris Basin 632
Mustafa Aydin and Fulya Ereker 632
44.1 Introduction 632
Figure 44.1: General Layout of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Source: AltÆnbilek (2004: 17). 633
44.2 The Euphrates-Tigris River Basin: Scarce Water and Unsatisfiable Demands 633
Table 44.1: Potential Water Demands on the Euphrates (mcm). Source: Beaumont (1998: 179). 634
Irrigation Water Use 634
Evaporation 634
Total 634
10.830 - 13.000 634
12.000 - 14.000 634
4.750 - 12.500 634
5.400 - 12.600 634
24.400 - 27.500 634
25.000 - 28.100 634
42.300 - 54.800 634
31.800 634
-10.500 - -23.000 634
Table 44.2: Potential Water Demands on the Tigris (mcm). Source: Beaumont (1998: 182). 634
Irrigation Water Use 634
Evaporation 634
Total 634
5.600 - 6.700 634
630 634
6.200 - 7.300 634
0 634
0 634
0 634
37.200 - 60.000 634
1.00 634
38.200 - 61.000 634
Figure 44.2: Average Annual Flow Values for Euphrates-Tigris Rivers. Source: AltÆnbilek (2004: 19). 635
44.3 The Euphrates-Tigris Dispute: From National Deve-lopment to National Security 636
44.3.1 Historical Background 636
Figure 44.3: Dams in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Source: Allan (2002, Annexes). 638
44.3.2 The Development of GAP and Worsened Relations 638
Table 44.3: GAP Land and Water Resources Development Projects. Source: GAP Regional Development Administration (2006: 2). 638
EUPHRATES 638
TIGRIS 638
44.3.3 The JTC: Cooperation in a Hostile Environment 639
44.3.4 Opportunities, Expectations and Steps for a New Phase of Cooperation 641
44.4 Conclusions 642
45 Water Resources in the Arab World: A Case Study on Jordan 643
Bassam Ossama Hayek 643
45.1 Introduction 643
45.2 Jordan 643
Figure 45.1: Availability of Freshwater in 2000. Average River Flows and Groundwater Recharge. Source: Designed by Philippe Reka... 644
45.3 Water Resources in Jordan 644
Figure 45.2: Map of Jordan. Source: University of Texas at Austin, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection at: <
45.3.1 Water Demand 644
Table 45.1: Projected water demand per sector (million cubic metres, MCM). Source: Ministry of Water and Irrigation (2002: 9). 646
2005 646
2010 646
2020 646
Figure 45.3: Water use distribution among sectors (million cubic meters supplied), in 2000. Source: Ministry of Water and Irrigation (2002: 9). 646
45.4 Current Plans and Initiatives 647
45.4.1 Water Supply 647
45.4.1.1 Disi Water Conveyance Project 647
45.4.1.2 The Red Sea - Dead Sea Conduit 647
45.4.1.3 The Wehdah (Unity Dam) 647
45.5 Discussion and Further Actions 647
1. In vitalizing the agricultural sector and at the same time reducing its allocation of water, development of technology and kn... 649
2. As the trade and services sector are the major contributor to the GDP in Jordan, it is wise to continue fostering efforts to ... 649
3. Enhancing industrial development will only improve the value of the currency if and the exports are improved. Therefore, mark... 649
4. Finally, there is a need for a maximum cooperation within the region and with international organization to help solving the ... 649
46 ‘New Security Thinking’ in Israeli-Palestinian Water Relations 650
Jan Selby 650
46.1 Introduction 650
46.2 New Security Thinking in the Oslo Process 651
46.3 New Security Thinking in Israeli- Palestinian Water Relations 653
46.4 New Security Thinking on Israeli- Palestinian Water Issues Amongst External Actors 655
46.5 Conclusions 657
47 Functional Water Cooperation in the Jordan River Basin: Spillover or Spillback for Political Security? 659
Anders Jägerskog 659
47.1 Introduction 659
47.2 Theoretical Dimensions 660
47.3 The Importance of Politics: The Role of Discourses 661
47.4 Regime Theory Considerations 663
47.5 Benefits Beyond the River: The Case for Spill(-)over Effects of Water Cooperation in the Jordan River Basin - Wishful Thinking or Tangible Reality? 665
47.6 Conclusion 666
48 Water and Food Security in the River Nile Basin: Perspectives of the Government and NGOs in Egypt 667
Emad Adly and Tarek Ahmed 667
48.1 Introduction 667
48.2 Nile Basin Population Growth and Increasing Water Demands 667
Figure 48.1: The Nile River Basin. Source: NBI (2005). This map is in the public domain (< http://www.nilebasin.org>
Table 48.1: Population Growth in the Nile Basin Countries. Sources: Data for 1950 and 2000 and projections for 2025 and 2050: UN (2007) at: <
1950 669
2000 669
2005 669
2025 669
2050 669
Population Growth 669
1950-2050 669
2005-2050 669
Table 48.2: Per Capita Share of Water Consumption (m3/ year) in Riparian Countries in 1995, and Anticipated Share in 2025 and 20... 669
in 1995 669
in 2025 669
in 2050 669
48.3 Aspiration to Food Security in the Nile Basin 668
48.4 The Water Situation in Egypt with Respect to that in the Upper Nile Countries 670
Figure 48.2: Satellite Image of the Nile River. Source: NASA, Visible World Credit Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NA...
Figure 48.3: Rainfall Patterns in the Nile Basin. Source: SPIDER International Ltd., 1994, 1997: Water Resources Atlas of the River Nile Basin (Ottawa: Canadian International Development Agency). This map is in the public domain. 671
48.5 The Challenges Egypt Faces with Regard to Water, Agricultural Development and Food Security 670
Table 48.3: Estimated Water Balance of Egypt in 1997 and 2017 (in km3/year). Source: Egypt, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (2002). This table is in the public domain. 672
1997 672
2017 672
Water Resources: 672
Water Demand: 672
48.6 Governmental Efforts to Secure the Food Supply 672

2. Protecting the water quality and combating pollution and
3. Identifying new water resources in consultation and cooperation with Nile basin countries. 672
Table 48.4: Indicators Used to Report on the State of Food Security in Egypt. Source: Egypt, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (2003). This table is in the public domain. 673
Year of Evaluation 673
Indicator Value 673
Remarks 673
1998-2000 673
33.7% 673
1998-2000 673
0.3% 673
1999 673
3323 kcal 673
1999 673
241 kcal 673
48.7 Role of Civil Society and NGOs in Water Security 674
48.8 Successful Initiatives of NGOs in the Water Sector 674
48.8.1 Egyptian Water Partnership 674
48.8.2 The National Nile Basin Discourse Forum 675
48.9 Conclusions 675
49 Water and Food Security in the Nile River Basin: Perspectives of Governments and NGOs of Upstream Countries 676
Patricia Kameri-Mbote and Kithure Kindiki 676
49.1 Introduction 676
Figure 49.1: Landcover Classes in the Nile Basin. Source: IUCN: Water Resources E Atlas. Watersheds of the World at: http://www...
49.2 Reappraising the Hydrology of the Nile: Water and Food Security in the Basin 676
Figure 49.2: The Upper Nile Basin and Lake Victoria. Source: USDA, Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division Foreign Agr... 678
Figure 49.3: Population Distribution on the Nile Basin in 2005 and 2030. Source: FAO < http://www.faonile.org/ images/PopulationDistribution29Nov.png>
Figure 49.4: Dominant Crops in the Nile Basin Farming System. Source: FAONile at: <
49.3 Riparian Interests 680
49.4 The Legal and Institutional Context 680
49.4.1 The Legal Status of the Nile Treaties 681
49.4.2 General Norms on International Watercourses 681
49.4.3 The Institutional Set-up for Cooperation on the Nile 683
49.5 Unlocking the Impasse: New Solution to an Old Problem? 683
49.6 The Role of Civil Society 684
49.7 Conclusion 684
50 Water and Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Emerging Concepts and their Implications for Effective Water Resource Management in the Southern African Region 685
Peter Ashton and Anthony Turton 685
50.1 Introduction 685
Figure 50.1: Map of Africa showing the locations and names of the continent's 63 international (shared) river basins. Source: Map modified and redrawn from UNEP (2002: 27), plus own data. 686
50.2 Water Dependencies and Inter- state Behaviour: The Basis for Cooperation or Conflict 686
Figure 50.2: Map of Southern Africa, showing the international (shared) aquifer systems used by the SADC states. (A = Kagera Aqu... 687
Figure 50.3: Map of Southern Africa showing the locations of large water supply dams in relation to the shared river basins in S... 688
50.3 Emerging Concepts: The Southern African Hydropolitical Complex 690
Table 50.1: Countries sharing the international river basins found in the SADC region (figure 50.1). The Nile and Congo River sy... 691
Riparian States 691
Basin Classification 691
Figure 50.4: Schematic diagram illustrating the relationships between shared river basins within the SADC region and countries c... 693
Table 50.2: Projected Population Growth in SADC Countries, (2000 - 2025 - medium estimate), Compared With Other African Regions. 694
2000 694
Population (m.) 694
2025 694
Population (m.) 694
Increase (2000 - 2025) 694
(m.) 694
(%) 694
50.4 Implications 694
50.4.1 Security of Supply 694
50.4.2 Strategies to Achieve Higher Assurance of Supply Levels 696
50.5 Conclusions 696
Boy 50.1: “Protocol on Shared Watercourses in the Southern African Development Community (SADC)” signed in 2000. This text is in the public domain. 697
Article 2 697

d.) Promote the harmonization and monitoring of legislation and policies for planning, development, conservation, protection of shared watercourses, and allocation of the resources thereof and
e.) Promote research and technology development, information exchange, capacity building, and the application of appropriate technologies in shared watercourses management.” 697
Article 3 697
1. The State Parties recognize the principle of the unity and coherence of each shared watercourse and in accordance with this p... 697
2. The utilization of shared watercourses within the SADC Region shall be open to each Watercourse State, in respect of the wate... 697
3. State Parties undertake to respect the existing rules of customary or general international law relating to the utilization and management of the resources of shared watercourses. 697
4. State Parties shall maintain a proper balance between resource development for a higher standard of living for their people and conservation and enhancement of the environment to promote sustainable development. 697
5. State Parties undertake to pursue and establish close co-operation with regard to the study and execution of all projects likely to have an effect on the regime of the shared watercourse. 697
6. State Parties shall exchange available information and data regarding the hydrological, hydro geological, water quality, meteorological and environmental condition of shared watercourses. 698
7. 698
a.) Watercourse States shall in their respective territories utilize a shared watercourse in an equitable and reasonable manner.... 698
b.) Watercourse States shall participate in the use, development and protection of a shared watercourse in an equitable and reas... 698
8. 698
a.) Utilization of a shared watercourse in an equitable and reasonable manner within the meaning of Article 7 (a) and (b) requires taking into account all relevant factors and circumstances including: 698

(vi) conservation, protection, development and economy of use of the water resources of the shared watercourse and the costs of measures taken to that effect and
(vii) the availability of alternatives, of comparable value, to a particular planned or existing use. 698
b.) The weight to be given to each factor is to be determined by its importance in comparison with that of other relevant factor... 698
9. State Parties shall deal with planned measures in conformity with the procedure set out in Article 4 (1). 698
10. 698
a.) State Parties shall, in utilizing a shared watercourse in their territories, take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm to other Watercourse States. 698
b.) Where significant harm is nevertheless caused to another Watercourse State, the State whose use causes such harm shall, in t... 698
c.) Unless the Watercourse States concerned have agreed otherwise for the protection of the interests of persons, natural or jur... 698
51 Water Security in the Senegal River Basin: Water Cooperation and Water Conflicts 699
Martin Kipping 699
51.1 Introduction: Water War and Water Peace 699
51.2 Case Selection: Why the Senegal River? 700
Figure 51.1: The Senegal River Basin. Source: Brantly/Ramsey (1998: 108). Printed with permission 701
51.3 Hypotheses for the Puzzle of ‘Anti-Malthusian’ Correlation 700
51.3.1 Intensified International Cooperation in Times of Growing Water Scarcity 701
51.3.2 Intra-State Violent Conflict in Times of Growing Water Availability 702
51.4 Process-Tracing: Causal Mechanisms of Cooperation and Conflict on the Senegal River 703
51.4.1 Intense Cooperation: Infrastructure Projects of the Organization for the Development of the Senegal River (OMVS) 704
51.4.2 Violent Conflict: The Mauritanian “Events” of 1989/1990 706
51.5 Conclusion: Strengthening the Water Peace 707
52 The Centrality of Water Regime Formation for Water Security in West Africa: An Analysis of the Volta Basin 709
Maëlis Borghese 709
52.1 International Rivers in Africa: Imperative for Co-operation 709
52.2 Regime Theory as the Research Framework 710
52.2.1 State Interests as Determinants of Regime Formation 711
52.2.2 The Influence of Process Factors 711
Figure 52.1: Scheme: Realist-Oriented Regime Formation Process in Transboundary Basins. Source: Developed by the author based on Borghese (2005). 712
Figure 52.2: Scheme: Integrated Model of Regime Formation. Source: Developed by the author based on Borghese (2005). 713
Figure 52.3: Map: Representation of the Volta River Basin Showing Political Boundaries. Source: UNEP (2002: 2). The permission to use this map was obtained from the copyright holder. 714
52.3 Why Do States Co-operate in the Volta Basin? 715
52.3.1 Geographic, Demographic and Economic Trends in the Volta Basin 715
Table 52.1: Distribution of the Basin in the Six Riparian Countries. Sources: Data for the Volta River Basin are from respective UNEP National Reports (UNEP 2001a, 2001b, 2001c, 2001d, 2001e, 2001f). 715
Area of Volta River Basin (km2) 715
% of Basin 715
% of Country in the basin 715
Table 52.2: Annual Rainfall and Evaporation in the Riparian Countries of the Volta Basin. Source: Barry/Obuobie/ Andrein/Andah/Pluquet (2004: 13). Permission to use this table has been granted by the copyright holder. 716
River 716
Area of the Volta Basin km2 716
Upstream Riparian Countries 716
Average Annual Rainfall (mm) 716
Average Annual Evaporation (mm) 716
165,830 716
1320 716
1415 716
9,890 716
1358 716
1486 716
25,545 716
1305 716
1697 716
171,105 716
950 716
2130 716
13,590 716
1294 716
1400 716
12,430 716
685 716
3015 716
Table 52.3: Population projection in the Volta River basin. Source: UN, cited from: Barry/Obuobie/Andrein/Andah/ Pluquet (2004: 22). 716
2005 716
2020 716
2025 716
2050 716
Growth Rate 716
(2000) 716
Urban 716
Rural 716
Projections of UN Populations Division 716
in per cent 716
52.3.2 Common Interests of Riparian States in Integrated Water Management - Analysis of Problem and Situation Structures 716
Figure 52.4: Freshwater Stress and Scarcity in Africa by 2025. Source: UNECA (2000) UNEP (1999g). The permission to use this map was obtained from the copyright holder.
Figure 52.5: Map: Environmental Critical Areas in the Volta Basin. Source: UNEP (2001g), RCN 2/4. The permission to use this map was obtained from the copyright holder. 718
52.3.3 Process Factors on Volta Basin’s Co- operation Trend 719
Figure 52.6: Volta Basin Regime Genesis. Source: Developed by the author based on Borghese (2005). 721
52.4 Key Role of International Organizations for Preventing Water Insecurity in Developing Countries 722
53 Success and Failure in International River Basin Management - The Case of Southern Africa 723
Stefan Lindemann 723
53.1 The Challenge of International River Basin Management 723
53.2 Theoretical and Methodological Framework 724
53.2.1 The Research Framework 724
53.2.1.1 Problem Factors 725
53.2.1.2 Process Factors 726
53.2.1.3 Institutional Factors 726
53.2.1.4 Country-specific Factors 727
53.2.1.5 Factors of International Context 727
Figure 53.1: Political determinants of water regime formation and water regime effectiveness. Source: The author. 728
53.2.2 Methodological Considerations 728
53.3 Empirical Findings 729
53.3.1 Assessing Water Regime Effectiveness 729
53.3.2 Political Determinants of Water Regime Formation and Effectiveness 730
53.4 Conclusions 732
54 Can ‘Integrated Water Resources Management’ Silence Malthusian Concerns? The Case of Central Asia 734
Martin Kipping 734
54.1 Introduction, 734
54.2 Analytical vs. Prescriptive Views on International Water Problems 735
Figure 54.1: The Aral Sea Basin’s Main Watercourses. Source: McKinney (2003: 189) reprinted with permission of the copyright holder.
54.3 Malthusian Concerns Regarding Central Asia 736
Table 54.1: Socio-economic Indicators of the Aral Sea Basin’s Riparian Countries (2005). Source: CIA Factbook (2005). 737
GDP (PPP) billion $ 737
Population thousands 737
GDP/capita $ (PPP) 737
Surface area km2 737
Irrigated area km2 (est.) 737
54.3.1 International Conflicts over Relative Water Distribution 737
54.3.2 International Conflicts over Absolute Water Distribution 738
Table 54.2: Origin of River Flow and Water Allocation in the Aral Sea Basin. Source: Adapted from McKinney (2003: 193). 739
Amu Darya 739
Syr Darya 739
Originating river flow (km3/year) 739
Quota (km3/year) 739
Originating river flow (km3/year) 739
Quota (km3/year) 739
54.3.3 Intra-state Scarcity Conflicts 739
54.4 IWRM as a Possible Answer to Malthusian Concerns? 740
54.4.1 Contributions of IWRM to Solve Conflicts over Relative Water Distribution 742
54.4.2 Contributions of IWRM to Solve Conflicts over Absolute Water Distribution 743
54.4.3 IWRM Contributions to Solve Intra-state Scarcity Conflicts 743
54.5 Barriers to the Implementation of IWRM-Solutions to Malthusian Concerns 744
54.6 Conclusion: How to Advance? 746
55 Environmental Security in Central Asia and the Caspian Region: Aral and Caspian Seas 747
Eva Rakel 747
55.1 Introduction 747
Figure 55.1: Map of Central Asian Countries. Source: Everett-Heath, Tom (Ed.): Central Asia-Aspects of Transition (London - New York: Routledge Curzon 2003). Permission was granted by the publisher. 748
55.2 Post-Soviet Central Eurasia 749
55.3 The Aral Sea crisis 750
Figure 55.2: Imagess of a Shrinking Aral Sea (1960-2010). Source: Spoor, Max Krutov
1. Lowering of the sea level of the Aral Sea by an average of 17 metres and reduction in the volume of water in the sea by two thirds. 751
2. Disruption of the climatic balance with temperatures in January 1980 to 1988 being 3 to 3º C lower than the previous annual ... 751
3. Increase of dust storms and a higher amount of dust on glacial surfaces resulting in the melting of glaciers. 751
4. Damage of the biological diversity in the Aral Sea Basin. Before 1960 the Aral Sea Basin was home to over 70 kinds of mammals and 319 types of birds. Now only 32 kinds of mammals and 160 types of birds exist in the Aral Sea Basin. 751
5. The changes in the Basin affect mainly the disadvantaged poor of 3 - 4 million of 44 million in an area of 440,000 square kilometres, mainly in the Ferghana Valley. However, consequences are worst near the shores of the lake, like in Karakalpakstan. 751
6. An increase in dust storms containing toxic salt residue. People who inhale these carcinogens have a higher risk of experiencing infant mortality, respiratory illnesses, esophageal cancers, typhoid, and hepatitis (Peachery 2004: 4 - 6). 751
55.3.1 Possible Areas of Conflict due to the Aral Sea Crisis 752
Figure 55.3: Water Issues in the Ferghana Valley. Source: Victor Novikov/Philippe Rekacewisz, UNEP/GRID-ARENDAl, April 2005, see at: < http://www.relief-web.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900LargeMaps/AHAA-6CYLV7?Open Document>
Figure 55.4: Three Dimensional View of the Ferghana Valley Region. Source: UNEP and: < http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/ RWB.NSF/db900LargeMaps/AHAA-6CCRDG?OpenDocument>
55.4 Caspian Sea Crisis 754
55.4.1 Possible Areas of Conflict on the Caspian Sea Crisis 756
55.5 Environmental Management in Post-Soviet Central Eurasia 757
55.5.1 Environmental Management: The Aral Sea 757
55.5.2 Environmental Management -The Caspian Sea 758
55.6 Prospects for Environmental Management and Conflict Avoidance in Central Eurasia 759
56 The Central Asian Water Regime as an Instrument for Crisis Prevention 761
Julia Wunderer 761
56.1 Introduction 761
56.2 Water Regimes and Conflict Dimensions 762
56.2.1 Theoretical Aspects and Effects Conducive to Peace of Water Regimes 762
56.2.2 Dimensions of Conflict 762
Table 56.1: Framework of Conflict Dimensions. Source: Developed by the author. 763
Table 56.2: Conflict Dimensions of Water-Related Conflicts in Central Asia (a. Source: Compiled by the author. 764
56.3 The Central Asian Water Regime 764
Table 56.3: The Central Asian Water Agreements. Source: Compiled by the author. 765
56.4 Evaluating the Central Asian Water Regime 766
56.4.1 The Environmental Dimension 766
56.4.2 The Economic Dimension 766
56.4.3 The Socio-Political Dimension 767
Table 56.4: Central Asian Participation in International Water Law. Source: Compiled by the author. 768
56.4.4 The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) 768
56.5 Conclusions 769
57 Water Resource Management for Improving Environmental Security and Rural Livelihoods in the Irrigated Amu Darya Lowlands 771
Christopher Martius, Jochen Froebrich and Ernst-August Nuppenau 771
57.1 Introduction 771
Figure 57.1: Irrigated Lowlands of the Amu Darya (Amu Darya Lowlands or ADL). Source: This map was drafted by the authors. 772
1. Demography: population growth has been high in all Central Asian countries in the 1990s, and continues so in Tajikistan with ... 771
2. Climate change: the above-average climatic change predicted for CA will bring short-term gains in water availability downstre... 771
3. Increased water demand: The lowlands, in the watershed, are particularly vulnerable to increased water diversions upstream. T... 772
4. Land degradation: The first three factors will likely result in reduced water availability in the irrigated ADL. This will tr... 772
57.2 The Lower Amu Darya Basin 773
57.2.1 Agricultural Water Use as a Major Driver of Environmental Insecurity 774
57.2.2 Socio-economic Conditions: Poverty, Food Insecurity and Health Problems 775
57.2.3 Water Administration 776
57.3 Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) 776
Figure 57.2: Essential Utility Aspects of Water (vertical bars) and Cross-cutting Themes (horizontal bars) for Achieving IWRM in the Amu Darya Lowlands. Source: This figure was developed by the authors. 777
57.3.1 Setting up an IWRM Framework for the Amu Darya Lowlands 777
57.3.1.1 Water related themes 778
57.3.1.2 Cross-cutting Themes 779
57.3.2 A Stepwise Implementation Concept 780
57.3.2.1 ‘Implementation as-you-go’ 780
Figure 57.3: Generalized pattern for implementing key activities as partial elements within an IWRM framework. Source: Authors. 781
57.3.2.2 Introducing Key Technologies 781
Table 57.1: Examples of key technologies to be implemented in the framework of an IWRM concept for the ADL. Source: Compiled by the authors. 782
57.3.2.3 Stakeholder Orientation 782
57.3.2.4 Human Capacity-Building 782
57.3.2.5 Long-term Commitment 783
57.4 Conclusions - Why Central Asia? 783
58 Water Security in Times of Armed Conflicts 784
Mara Tignino 784
58.1 Introduction 784
58.2 Water Security in the Conduct of Hostilities 785
58.2.1 The Prohibition of Poisoning 786
58.2.2 Protection of Objects Indispensable to the Survival of Civilian Population 787
58.2.3 Protection of Installations Containing Dangerous Forces 789
58.3 Water Security under the Regime of Occupation 790
Table 58.1: Excerpts of relevant instruments on water security during armed conflicts. Source: Compiled by the author. 791
Instruments 791
Quotations 791
“Geneva Convention (III) relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War” 791
“Geneva Convention (IV) relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Times of War” 791
International Law Association, “Helsinki Rules on the Uses of the Waters of International Rivers” 791
a.) “In time of war, other armed conflict, or public emergency constituting a threat to the life of the State … The riparian State shall in any case facilitate navigation for humanitarian purposes.” 791
International Law Association, “Resolution on the Protection of Water Resources and Water Installations in Times of Armed Conflict” 791
“Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, and Relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts” 791
“Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 Relating to the Protection of Victims of Non- International Armed Conflicts” 791
“United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses” 791
United Nations Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, General Comment No. 15, “The right to water (arts. 11 and 12 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights)” 792
International Law Association, “Revision of the Helsinki and other International Law Association Rules on International Water Resources” 792
58.4 Protection of the Environment in International Humanitarian Law 793
58.4.1 The 1976 ENMOD Convention 794
58.4.2 The 1977 Additional Protocol I 795
58.5 Conclusions: Reflections on a Comprehensive Approach on Water Security 796
Figure 58.1: Map of current International Committee of the Red Cross Water and Sanitation Programmes around the world. Source: The map is available at: < http://www.icrc.org>
59 Environmental Security Concepts Revisited During the First Three Phases (1983-2006) 802
Simon Dalby, Hans Günter Brauch, Úrsula Oswald Spring 802
As we look ahead, we can see real risks that resource depletion, especially fresh water scarcities, as well as severe forms of e... 802
Kofi A. Annan: Millennium Report (2000). 802
59.1 Introduction 802
59.2 Three Phases of Environmental Security 802
59.3 Lessons Learned and Yet to Be Learned 804
59.3.1 Contexts of Insecurity 804
59.3.2 Pillars of Human Security 806
59.4 Critiques of the Environmental Security Debate 807
59.5 From Research to Action: Policy Activities Since 1990 809
59.6 Conclusions 810
60 Environmental Security: Academic and Policy Debates in North America 812
Richard A. Matthew and Bryan McDonald 812
60.1 Introduction 812
60.2 Origins of Environmental Security in North America 813
60.3 Environment and Security during the Clinton-Gore Era 814
60.4 The U.S. Discourse: Environmental Threats to ‘National Security’ 816
60.4.1 Tension, Instability, Conflict and Violence Affecting U.S. Interests Caused, Amplified, or Triggered by Environmental Problems 816
60.4.2 Activities Affecting U.S. Access to Environmental Goods Abroad 816
60.4.3 Terrorist Activities Responding to Environmental Degradation, Targeting the U.S. Environment, or Using Eco- logical Systems as a Medium for Spreading Terror 817
60.4.4 Greening the Military 817
60.4.5 Using Military and Intelligence Assets to Support Environmental Initiatives 818
60.4.6 Promoting Dialogue, Building Confidence, and Transferring Technology 818
60.4.7 Providing Disaster and Humanitarian Assistance 819
60.4.8 Environmental Peacebuilding 819
60.5 Canadian Discourse on Environmental Change and ‘Human Security’ 819
60.5.1 Global Environmental Change and Human Security 820
60.5.2 Environmental Peacebuilding 820
60.5.3 The Resource Curse 820
60.6 Conclusion 820
61 The Debate on Ecological Security in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine 823
Alexander Sergunin 823
61.1 Introduction 823
61.2 CIS Security Thinking in the Post- Cold War Period: Changing Perceptions 823
Figure 61.1: Map of the Russian Federation. Source: Map 3840, Rev. 2, January 2004. United Nations, Department of Peacekeeping Operations, Cartographic Section. Reprinted with permission. 824
Figure 61.2: :Political Map of Belarus (1997). Source: Map 3776, Rev. 3, January 2004. United Nations, Department of Peacekeeping Operations, Cartographic Section. Reprinted with permission. 825
Figure 61.3: Political Map of Ukraine (1993). Source: Map 3773, Rev. 4, January 2005. UN, Department of Peacekeeping Operations, Cartographic Section. Reprinted with permission. 826
61.3 IR Schools and Environmental Security of CIS Member States 826
61.3.1 Realism 826
61.3.2 Liberalism 827
61.3.3 Globalism 827
61.4 Problems and Solutions 828
Figure 61.4: Key Environmental Problem Areas in Russia. Source: University of Texas at Austin, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Colle... 829
61.4.1 Pollution 828
61.4.2 Terrestrial Pollution 831
61.4.3 Forest Destruction 831
61.4.4 Climate Change 832
61.4.5 Fisheries and the Marine Environment 832
61.4.6 Nuclear Safety 832
Figure 61.5: Map of Radiation Hotspots Resulting from the Chernobyl’ Nuclear Power Plant Accident in 1986. Source: University of... 834
61.5 Conclusion 835
62 Linking Knowledge Systems for Socio-ecological Security 837
P.S. Ramakrishnan 837
62.1 Introduction 837
62.2 Knowledge Systems? 838
62.2.1 Formal Knowledge 838
62.2.2 Traditional Knowledge 839
62.2.2.1 Sacred Groves 840
62.2.2.2 Sacred and Cultural Landscapes 841
Figure 62.1: Demojong, the land of hidden treasures: Pictorial depiction of holy sites in West Sikkim, Eastern Himalayas. Source: Ramakrishnan (1996). 842
62.2.2.3 Sacred Species 843
62.3 Linking Conservation with Participatory Sustainable Development 844
62.3.1 The Shifting Agricultural Landscape in North-east India 844
Figure 62.2: Two case study sites in India: shifting agricultural landscape, north-eastern hill region of India (dot and arrow o... 845
Figure 62.3: Broad agro-ecosystem typologies linked to species richness (x-axis) and agro-eco-system complexity. Source: Swift/Anderson, 1993: Permission to reproduce this figures was granted by the author and Springer-Verlag. 846
Figure 62.4: Interdisciplinary interactions called for in tropical forest management and conservation. Source: Ramakrishnan (2001). 847
62.3.2 Redeveloping the Central Himalayan Landscape 847
62.4 Conclusions 847
Figure 62.5: TEK centred on the socially selected keystone species, Quercus spp., acting as a trigger for rehabilitation of the mountain landscape in the Central Himalaya. Source: Ramakrishnan (2001). 848
63 Environmental Security in Northeast Asia 849
Miranda A. Schreurs 849
63.1 Introduction 849
63.2 Environmental Security Debates 849
Figure 63.1: Map of East Asia (political), 2004. Source: University of Texas, Austin, PLC map collection. The map is in the public domain. 850
63.3 Growing Environmental Awareness: Implications for Environmental Security Debates 851
63.4 NGOs and Environmental Scientific Communities 851
63.5 A Diverse Region: Implications for Environmental Security Debates 853
63.6 The Case of China 854
63.7 The International Dimensions of Northeast Asia’s Environmental Security Problems 855
63.7.1 Humanitarian Crisis in North Korea 855
63.7.2 Acid Rain, Yellow Sand, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 856
63.7.3 River Pollution 856
63.7.4 Over-fishing, Territorial Disputes, and International Conflict 857
63.7.5 Energy Security and the Environment 857
63.7.6 Regional Cooperation for Environmental Security 859
63.8 Linking Environmental and Human Security Concerns to Official Development Assistance 859
63.9 The Regionalization of Environmental Protection 861
63.10 Conclusion 861
64 Environmental Security in the Arab World 862
Mohammad El-Sayed Selim 862
64.1 Introduction 862
64.2 Profile of the Arab World 863
Figure 64.1: Map of the member states of the Arab League. Source: This map is in the public domain: < http:// www.usiraqprocon.org/images/Maps/Arableague.html>
64.3 The Arab Discourse on Environmental Security 864
64.3.1 The Environment in General 864
64.3.2 The Relationship between Environment and Education 865
64.3.3 The Relationship between Environment and Development 865
64.3.4 The Relationship between Environment and Mass Media 865
64.3.5 The Social Dimension of the Environment 865
64.3.6 The Relationship between Environment and Psychology 865
64.3.7 The Relationship between Environment and Islam 865
64.3.8 Specific Environmental Issues in the Arab world 865
64.3.9 Environmental Security 866
64.4 Main Environmental Threats to Arab Security 866
64.4.1 Water Scarcity and Arab Security 867
64.4.2 Desertification and Land Degradation 867
64.4.3 Other Environmental Hazards in the Arab World 867
64.4.4 Climate Change as a Security Challenge 867
64.5 Arab Strategies to Deal with Environmental Threats 868
64.6 Linkages between Environment and Security 869
64.7 Conclusion 871
65 In the Name of Security: In the Name of Peace - Environmental Schizophrenia and the Security Discourse in Israel / Palestine 873
David Newman 873
65.1 Introduction 873
65.2 The Traditional Securitization Discourse in Israel 873
65.2.1 Military Security 874
65.2.2 Territorial Security 874
65.2.3 Demographic Security 874
65.3 Environmental Security in Israel and Palestine 875
65.3.1 The Public Discourse: Environmental Schizophrenia 875
65.4 Geopolitics and Discourses of Water Security 877
65.5 Environmental Security and the Israel-Palestine Conflict 878
65.5.1 Securitization Discourses and the ‘National Interest’ 879
65.5.2 The Environmental Impact of Occupation 880
65.5.3 The Environmental Threat of Peace 881
65.6 Concluding Comments 882
66 Security and Environment and the Israel - Palestine Conflict 883
Robin Twite 883
66.1 The Environment as a Political Issue 883
66.2 Perceptions of Regional Dangers to Environmental Security 884
66.2.1 Water 884
66.2.2 Solid and Hazardous Waste 885
Figure 66.1: The Security Fence Separating Israel and the West Bank. Photo © Gershon Baskin. Publication permission was granted. 886
Figure 66.2: The Security Fence Separating Israel and the West Bank. Photo © Gershon Baskin. Publication permission was granted. 887
66.2.3 The Security Fence and its Environmental Implications 887
Figure 66.3: The Security Fence Separating Israel and the West Bank. Photo © Gershon Baskin. Publication permission was granted. 888
66.2.4 Mitigating the Adverse Effect of Potential or Actual Environmental Conflict in Israel and Palestine 888
66.2.5 New Mechanisms for Conflict Management and Resolution 888
66.2.6 Role of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) 889
66.2.7 Involvement of Third Parties - Providing Appropriate Mechanisms to Facilitate Cooperation 889
66.3 Conclusion 890
67 Conceptualization and Debate on Environmental and Human Security in Palestine 891
Mohammed S. Dajani Daoudi 891
67.1 Introduction 891
67.2 Overview and Basic Data on Palestine 891
67.2.1 Environmental Strains, Threats, and Problems 892
67.2.2 The Peace Process and the Environment 893

9. Threats to Cultural Heritage. In April 2000, the Ministerial Council approved the Palestinian Environmental Assessment Policy as proposed by the Ministry of Environmental Affairs. 893

8. Promoting environmental education and public awareness. 894
67.3 Environmental Threats to Palestinian National Security 894
67.3.1 Domestic Environmental Security Threats 894
1. Sand in Gaza is currently overexploited for building purposes. 894
2. Palestinians and Israelis in the West Bank carry out rock quarrying. 894
3. The Israelis are extracting the minerals of the Dead Sea extensively. 894
67.3.1.1 Water 894
a.) Restricting Drilling of New Palestinian Water Wells or Pumping Existing Wells. Israel’s control over Palestinian water resou... 895
b.) Restricting Palestinian Access to Water Sources. Lands adjacent to the Jordan River were declared ‘closed military zones’ an... 895
c.) Palestinian Water Rights. Under international laws relating to belligerent occupation, Israel as an occupier to the West Ban... 895
67.3.1.2 Solid Waste Mismanagement 895
67.3.1.3 Waste water Pollution 896
67.3.1.4 Air and Noise Pollution 897
67.3.1.5 Land Misuse and Land Degradation 898
67.3.1.6 Lack of Environmental Legislation and Enforcement 898
67.3.2 External Environmental Security Threats 898
67.3.2.1 Israeli Military Occupation 898
67.3.2.2 Israeli Settlements 899
1. Precluding the Palestinian people from using their groundwater reservoir because these settlements are constructed on their land. 899
2. Contaminating groundwater by discharging waste water into the areas of sand dunes and valleys where the best quality water is available. 899
3. Burying the solid waste of these settlements unsafely, causing leakage of pollutant substances into the groundwater. 899
4. Erecting sewage-processing stations over the best quality groundwater reservoir. 899
5. Drawing the high quality water from the OPT to Israel through these settlements. 899
67.3.2.3 Israeli Separation/Apartheid Wall 899
Table 67.1: Total agricultural areas in dunums, annual production in tons, and value in US$ in the eastern part of Israel’s segregation zone. Source: ARIJ, Agriculture & Biodiversity Research Unit, 2003.
Area (Dunum) 900
Production (Dunum) 900
Value in US$ 900
Rain fed 900
Irrigated 900
Total 900
Rain fed 900
Irrigated 900
Total 900
16.4 900
16.8 900
16.4 900
17.4 900
9.2 900
12.0 900
18.9 900
67.3.2.4 Uncontrolled Chemical Imports from Israel and Release of Hazardous Materials in Palestine 900
67.3.2.5 Illegal Dumping of Hazardous Waste 901
67.4 Conclusions 901
68 Environmental Scarcity, Insecurity and Conflict: The Cases of Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia and Burundi 902
Mersie Ejigu 902
68.1 Introduction 902
68.2 Changing Nature and Characteristics of Conflicts: Environmental Security as a Paradigm for Understanding and Managing Conflicts 903
68.3 Conceptual Framework and Study Methodology 904
68.4 1.4 Key Findings of the Study 905
68.4.1 1.4.1 Pervasive Environmental Insecurity 905
a.) Farm size is small and declining. The overall trend in all case countries is towards declining farm size. In the case of Rwa... 905
b.) Incidence of land fragmentation: The evidence from Uganda demonstrates intensity of land fragmentation, which tends to be hi... 905
c.) Increased cultivation intensity: As land becomes scarce relative to labour, farmers use more labour per unit of land or cultivation intensity increases. Such practice is common in the densely populated highlands of Burundi, Rwanda, and Ethiopia. 905
d.) Growing landlessness: Because of scarcity of land, there are a sizable number of farmers who seek but are unable to access l... 905
e.) Grazing land is in short supply: Grazing lands are overcrowded during the rainy season. Farmers respond to scarcity of grazi... 905
f.) A new tenure arrangement is emerging with rising informal land transactions. Generally, customary land tenure systems domina... 905
68.4.2 Poverty, Environmental Degradation, and Conflict are linked: Burden of Coping Falls Heavily on the Poor 906
68.4.3 Water Stress and Scarcity is Increasing 906
68.4.4 Households Often Fully Exhaust Their Coping Strategies Prior to Migration 906
68.4.5 Mobility of Population is a Major Mechanism for Easing Pressure on Land through Migrating to Areas with Low Population Density 906
68.5 Environmental Insecurity and Conflict: Key Evidence 907
68.5.1 Cultivator-Cultivator Conflicts 907
68.5.2 Herder-Cultivator Conflicts 907
68.5.3 Herder-Herder Conflicts 908
68.5.4 State-Cultivator and Herder Conflicts 908
68.6 Contributing Factors to Environmental Insecurity- Induced Armed Conflicts 908
68.6.1 Failed State and Policy 908
68.6.2 Scarcity-induced Migration 909
68.6.3 Societal Heterogeneity 909
68.6.4 Economic and Political Ascendancy 909
68.7 Conclusions 910
69 Environmental Security in Sub-Sahara Africa: Global and Regional Environmental Security Concepts and Debates Revisited 911
Sam Moyo 911
69.1 Introduction 911
69.2 Social and Economic Dimensions of Environmental Security 912
69.2.1 Water 912
Figure 69.1: Major River Basins of Africa. Source: UNEP-GRIP, Vital Graphics, at: < http://www.unep. org/vitalwater/ 03.htm#04>
Figure 69.2: Fresh Water Stress in 2000 and Projection for 2025. Source: UNEP-GRIP, Vital Graphics, at: < http:// www.unep.org/vitalwater/25-waterstress-world.htm>
69.2.2 Land 914
Figure 69.3: Water Availability and Water Stress in Africa in 2000 and 2005. Source: UNEP-GRIP, Vital Graphics, at: < http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/15.htm>
Figure 69.4: Aridity Zones in Africa. Source: UNEP-GRIP, Vital Graphics, at: < http://www.grida.no/ climate/vitalafrica/ english/25.htm>
69.2.2.1 Land Tenure and Land Use 918
69.2.3 Natural Resources 919
Figure 69.5: Deforestation in Africa. Source: UNEP-GRIP, Vital Graphics, at: < http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/ english/07.htm >
Figure 69.6: Food Production in Africa and the World. Food Production Index, Net per Capita (PIN base 1989-1991). Source: UNEP-G... 921
69.2.4 Minerals 921
69.3 Other Resources Issues 922
69.4 Environmental Security in the SADC Regional Perspectives 924
Figure 69.7: Food Shortages, chronic malnutrition, famines and conflicts in Africa during the 1990’s. Source: UNEP- GRIP, Vital ... 925
Figure 69.8: Freshwater Stress and Scarcity in Africa by 2025. Source: UNEP-GRIP, Vital Graphics, at: < http:// www.unep.org/vitalwater/25-waterstress-africa.htm>
69.5 External and Global Dimensions of Environmental Security in Africa 927
69.6 NGO’s and Social Movements in Environmental Security 928
Figure 69.9: People Affected by Natural Disasters in Africa. Source: UNEP-GRIP, Vital Graphics, at: < http:// www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/08.htm>
69.7 Conclusions and Implications 930
69.7.1 Recommendations 930
70 The Brazilian Amazon in an Environmental Security and Social Conflict Framework 931
Alexander López 931
70.1 Introduction: The Argument 931
70.2 Discovery, Occupation and National Integration of the Amazon 931
70.3 Military Years: Security and Economic Growth 932
70.4 Amazon: Result of Systemic and Supra-systemic Interactions 934
a.) The Brazilian Amazon as an ecogeographical entity constitutes an open system. 934
b.) The Brazilian Amazon is not a homogeneous, but a highly complex open system. 934
c.) Therefore, no single component can exist entirely separate. Rather, each component somehow affects and is affected by all other components. 934
d.) The behaviour of the social groups in the study area are strongly influenced by the components of the Brazilian Amazon. Thus... 934
e.) The governments have been subject to intense influences from the suprasystem. The international sphere has influenced the environmental variable positively and negatively. 934
70.5 Sovereignty in the Brazilian Amazon 935
70.6 Internationalization of the Brazilian Amazon 935
70.7 Militarizing the Amazon or Greening the Military? 936
70.8 Environment and Security: Politicization, Militarization and Securitization of the Brazilian Amazon 937
70.8.1 Politicization of the Environment 937
70.8.2 Militarization of Environmental Issues 937
70.8.3 Toward a Comprehensive Security Concept in the Amazon 938
70.9 Resource Scarcity vs. Abundance in the Brazilian Amazon 938
70.9.1 Role of Environmental Change in the Brazilian Amazon? 939
70.9.2 Contribution of Environmental Change to Social Conflicts 940
71 Politics of Environment in the Caucasus Conflict Zone: From Nationalizing Politics to Conflict Resolution 941
Vicken Cheterian 941
71.1 Introduction 941
EnvSec in the Southern Caucasus 942
Internet sources on EnvSec activities in the Southern Caucasus 942
Figure 71.1: Environment and Security Priority Areas in the Southern Caucasus. Source: EnvSec at: <
71.2 Environmentalists and Nationalists in the Caucasus 943
Figure 71.2: National environment and security issues in Armenia. Source: EnvSec at: <
Figure 71.3: National environment and security issues in Georgia. Source: EnvSec at: <
Figure 71.4: National environment and security issues in Azerbaijan. Source: EnvSec at: <
71.3 Popular Nationalism and the Security Dilemma in the South Caucasus 948
71.4 New States, Unrecognized States, and Security 950
71.5 Environment and Conflict Transformation 951
Figure 71.5: Transportation and communication links in Southern Caucasia Source: EnvSec at: <
72 Environmental Security in the Asia-Pacific Region: Contrasting Problems, Places, and Prospects 955
Jon Barnett 955
72.1 Introduction 955
72.2 Security and the Environment 955
Figure 72.1: The Asia-Pacific Region. 956
72.3 The Asia-Pacific Region 956
Table 72.1: Selected Indicators on the Asia-Pacific Region. Source: ADB (2004). 957
Population (2003) (‘000) 957
Average Annual population Growth Rate (1995 - 2000) % 957
Gross National Income / capita (US $) (2002) 957
Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate (2002) in % 957
Percentage of Population Below US $1 (PPP) / day 957
Table 72.2: Population Change for Selected Asia-Pacific Countries. Source: UN (2004a). 958
1950 958
2000 958
2050 958
2100 958
Population (thousands) 958
72.4 An Overview of Environmental Insecurity in the Asia-Pacific Region 958
Table 72.3: Some Selected Environmental Problems For Selected Countries In The Asia-Pacific Region. Source: Compiled by the author. 960
Problem(s) 960
Ostensible Cause 960
72.5 Climate Change and Environmental Insecurity in Pacific Island Atoll Countries 962
72.6 Water and Environmental Insecurity in China 963
72.7 Discussion 965
Table 72.4: Contrasting Climate Change and Atoll Countries with Water Problems in China. Source: Compiled by the author. 966
Atoll Countries 966
China 966
72.8 Conclusions 966
73 Security at the Poles: The Arctic and Antarctic 967
Gunhild Hoogensen 967
Caution should be exercised about labeling every form of pollution or human-induced scarcity as a threat to security. But if the... 967
Nils Petter Gleditsch (2003: 477) 967
73.1 Introduction 967
73.2 Environmental Security 968
73.3 The Arctic and Antarctic Regions 969
Figure 73.1: Map of the Arctic Region. Source: University of Texas at Austin, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection at: <
Figure 73.2: Map of the Antarctic Region. Source: University of Texas at Austin, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection at: <
73.4 Climate Change and Security in the Arctic 972
73.5 Climate Change and Security in Antarctica 974
73.6 Concluding Remarks 975
74 Human Security Concepts in Policy and Science 980
Hans Günter Brauch 980
Security … means safety from the constant threat of hunger, disease, crime and repression. It also means protection from sudden ... 980
Human Development Report 1994: New Dimensions of Human Security (UNDP 1994: 3). 980
Human security complements state security, enhances human rights and strengthens human development. It seeks to protect people a... 980
The Commission on Human Security’s definition of human security: to protect the vital core of all human lives in ways that enhan... 980
Human Security Commission: Human Security Now (CHS 2003: 2,4). 980
143. We stress the right of people to live in freedom and dignity, free from poverty and despair. We recognize that all individu... 980
UN General Assembly, World Summit Outcome (UN/A/60/1), 24 October 2005: 31 of 38. 980
74.1 Introduction 980
Table 74.1: Contextualizing human security concepts, pillars, and policy agendas. Source: Compiled by the author. 982
Security dimension 982
(widening) 982
Level of interaction 982
(deepening) 982
Refe- 982
rent 982
object 982
(security for whom) 982
Military 982
Political 982
Economic 982
Societal 982
Environ- 982
mental 982
World 982
of 982
states 982
(securitization: a ‘move’ to put policy issues of utmost importance that require extraordinary measures on the agenda of the state or of international governmental organizations (IGOs) 982
Human- 982
kind 982
peoples 982
people 982
commu- nity 982
human 982
being 982
individual 982
Sectoral security concepts cut across dimensions and referent objects. 982
Freedom to live in dignity 982
Freedom from fear 982
Freedom from want 982
Freedom from hazard impacts 982
protection 982
empowerment 982
Friends of Human Security (2006-) Japan, Mexico (co-chairs) 982
Norway (1999) 982
Switzerland 982
(2000) 982
Canada (2005) 982
Austria 982
(2003): 982
Human rights education 982
Slovenia 982
(2007): 982
Children in armed conflicts 982
Jordan (2001) 982
Chile (2002) 982
Mali (2004) 982
Thailand (2006) 982
Costa Rica 982
(South Africa) 982
Ireland (2009): 982
Gender 982
security 982
Greece: 982
(2008): 982
climate change 982
74.2 Evolution of Human Security as a Policy Concept 983
74.2.1 Human Security and the United Nations 983
74.2.2 Debate on Human Security in the UN General Assembly 984
Table 74.2: Systematic overview on referent objects, key values, nature of threats, and agents of insecurity and policy agendas referred to in the debate in the United Nations General Assembly on 22 May 2008. Source: speeches analysed by the author. 985
Country 985
Referent Object 985
Key goals and values 985
Nature of threats 985
Source 985
Policy agenda 985
74.2.3 UNDP: From Concept to Action 988
74.2.4 UNESCO: Promoting Human Security (1996-2008) 988
74.2.5 United Nations University 990
74.2.6 Pacesetters of the Human Security Concept 991
74.3 Human Security as a Scientific Concept 992
1. to distinguish “between threats to human security that are amenable to state intervention and others that must be left to public and social action ”
2. non-military threats to human security may become legitimate as threats to state or societal interests if they “meet rigorous criteria for securitizing those threats and disaggregating them into their component sectors ” and
3. threats to human security may be linked with other threats, e.g. environmental degradation can trigger internal displacement ... 995
74.4 Policy Debates, Pillars, and International Agendas 997
74.4.1 Human Security Agendas 997
Table 74.3: Four Pillars of Human Security. Source: The table was stimulated by Ulbert and Werthes (2008:21) who developed it based on Hampson/Daudelin/Hay/Martin/Reid (2002: 33). 998
Representatives and central actors 998
Key Elements (policy agendas) 998
Examples for key strategies and tools 998
Reference object 998
74.4.1.1 The Humanitarian Agenda 998
74.4.1.2 The Human and Sustainable Development Agenda 999
74.4.1.3 The Rule of Law and Human Rights Agenda 999
a.) Rule of law: The international community should embrace the ‘responsibility to protect’, as a basis for collective action ag... 999
b.) Human rights: The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights should be strengthened with more resources and staff, and... 999
c.) Democracy: A Democracy Fund should be created at the UN to provide assistance to countries seeking to establish or strengthen their democracy. 999
74.4.1.4 The Climate Change and Natural Hazard Agenda 1000
Table 74.4: Compilation of Human Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities, Risks: Source: Brauch (2005a: 80). 1001
Human Security 1001
Threats to 1001
Challenges for 1001
Vulnerabilities to 1001
Risks for 1001
Table 74.5: ‘Human Security’ Policies and Measures for Coping with Environmental Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities, and Risks for ‘Ecosystems’ and ‘Sustainability’. Source: Compiled by the author. 1002
Threats of 1002
Challenges of 1002
Vulnerabilities of 1002
Risks of 1002
Environmental Security for 1002
74.5 Human Security in the Anthropocene 1002
74.6 Conclusions 1004
75 The Human Security Network: A Global North-South Coalition 1005
Claudia F. Fuentes Julio and Hans Günter Brauch 1005
75.1 Introduction, 1005
75.2 Background and Objectives of the Human Security Network 1006
Table 75.1: Countries of the Human Security Network. Source: Population: PRB 2005: 2005 World Population Data Set Human Develop...
Population 1007
(2005-2050) 1007
Human Development Index, 2003 1007
GDP per capita, PPP US $2003 1007
Membership in international organizations 1007
in February 2008 1007
8.2 1007
8.2 1007
17 1007
30.094 1007
32.2 1007
36.9 1007
5 1007
30.677 1007
16.1 1007
20.5 1007
37 1007
10.274 1007
4.3 1007
6.3 1007
47 1007
9.606 1007
11.1 1007
10.6 1007
24 1007
19.954 1007
4.1 1007
4.7 1007
8 1007
37.738 1007
5.8 1007
10.4 1007
90 1007
4.320 1007
13.5 1007
42.0 1007
174 1007
994 1007
4.6 1007
5.6 1007
1 1007
37.670 1007
2.0 1007
1.9 1007
26 1007
19.150 1007
46.9 1007
48.1 1007
120 1007
10.346 1007
7.4 1007
7.2 1007
7 1007
30.552 1007
65.0 1007
73.2 1007
73 1007
7.695 1007
Table 75.2: Agendas of nine Ministerial Meetings of the HSN (1999-2007). Source: Compilation by the authors, based on “Chair’s Summary” of the Ministerial Meetings of the HSN. 1008
Lysoen- Bergen 1008
Norway 1008
1999 1008
Lucerne 1008
Switzerland 1008
2000 1008
Petra 1008
Jordan 1008
2001 1008
Santiago 1008
Chile 1008
2002 1008
Graz 1008
Austria 1008
2003 1008
Bamako 1008
Mali 1008
2004 1008
Ottawa 1008
Canada 1008
2005 1008
Bangkok 1008
Thailand 1008
2006 1008
Ljubljana 1008
Slovenia 1008
2007 1008
75.3 The Agenda of the Human Security Network 1008
Table 75.3: List of Lead and Partner Countries for HSN Activities. Source: See at: < http://www.humansecuritynetwork. org/docs/Table%20of%20Lead%20and%20Partner%20 Countries-e.php>
Issues 1010
Lead Country/ Countries 1010
Partner Countries 1010
Thailand 1010
Thailand, Greece 1010
Austria 1010
Thailand, Slovenia 1010
Canada, Switzerland 1010
Slovenia 1010
Austria, Slovenia, 1010
Switzerland 1010
Austria, Canada, 1010
Switzerland 1010
Austria 1010
Canada, Chile, Thailand Slovenia, Switzerland 1010
Mali 1010
Canada, Switzerland 1010
Canada 1010
Switzerland 1010
Thailand, Greece 1010
Austria, Switzerland 1010
Table 75.4: The Human Security Network and the four pillars of the Human Security Concept. Source: Hans Günter Brauch 2006h and 2008g. 1013
UNDP 1013
1994 1013
Pillar I: ‘Freedom from want’ 1013
Pillar II: ‘Freedom from fear’ 1013
Pillar III: ‘Freedom to live in dignity’ 1013
Pillar IV: ‘Freedom from hazard impacts’ 1013
Human 1013
security 1013
Human, eco- nomic, social development 1013
Violence in conflicts, small arms 1013
Rule of law, human rights, 1013
democracy 1013
Environmental stress and natural hazards 1013
UNDP 1013
UNDP, UNESCO 1013
UNU 1013
UNESCO, UNDP, UNU 1013
Secretary General 1013
UNESCO 1013
UNHCR 1013
HRC, 1013
UNESCO, OCHA, UNEP, UNDP, 1013
UN/ISDR 1013
UNU-EHS ENVSEC 1013
Japan, 1013
Thailand 1013
HSN 1013
Canada, Norway 1013
HSN 1013
Austria, Switzerland 1013
Slovenia 1013
< topics: EU, Germany, Japan>
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
(x) 1013
UN-INSTRAW 1013
human & people- centred
development, 1013
HIV/AIDS, 1013
Antipersonnel 1013
Landmines, 1013
protection of children in armed conflict, control of small arms & light wea- pons, conflict prevention, women, peace, security
International Criminal Court, 1013

Human rights education, 1013
implementation of international humanitarian & human rights law, against transn. organized crime, human trafficking
Discussed at the 8th ministerial meeting of the HSN on 1-2 June 2006 in Bangkok 1013
75.4 Conclusions 1014
76 Theoretical Perspective on Human Security: A South Asian View 1016
A. K. M. Abdus Sabur 1016
76.1 Introduction 1016

4. Development of individual state’s capability (military and otherwise) to ensure security. 1016
76.2 Human Security: Evolving Theoretical Perspective 1018
1. From an exclusive stress on territorial security to a much greater stress on people’s security and
2. From security through armaments to security through sustainable human development (UNDP 1994: 24). 1018

6. Community security (within family, race, ethno- religious community, and so on) and
7. Political security (basic human and democratic rights) (UNDP 1994: 24 - 35). 1018
1. The protection of civilians in time of war (legal and physical protection of people in war zones) and
2. The resolution of violent conflict (conflict prevention, resolution and post-conflict peacebuilding) (Axworthy 1997: 183 - 96). 1018
Table 76.1: Dimensions of National and Human Security. Source: Compilation by the author. 1019
Table 76.2: Human Security Issues and Possible Responses. Source: Compilation by the author. 1020
76.2.1 Human Security: The South Asian Context 1021
Table 76.3: Human Security Issues in South Asia and Possible Responses. Source: Compilation by the author. 1023
76.3 Conclusion 1024
77 Horizontal and Vertical Extension of International Security: A Human Security Approach 1025
Sascha Werthes and Tobias Debiel 1025
77.1 Introduction 1025
77.2 Horizontal Extension of the Security Agenda 1026
77.3 Vertical Extension of the International Security Agenda 1027
Figure 77.1: The Horizontal and Vertical Security Agenda Extension. Source: Debiel/Werthes (2005: 10). 1029
77.4 Practical Advantages of the Human Security Concept 1030
77.5 Substantiating Human Security for Academic Purposes? 1031
77.6 Conclusion 1032
78 Human Security in the Arab World: A Perspective from the Maghreb 1033
Bechir Chourou 1033
78.1 Introduction 1033
Figure 78.1: Map of the wider Magheb consisting of Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia. Source: This map is in the public domain and not protected by copyright at: <
78.2 Identifying and Prioritizing Threats 1033
Table 78.1: Direct and Indirect Threats to Human Security. Source: Bajpai (2000: 40). 1035
78.3 Forms of Direct Violence 1036
78.3.1 Authoritarianism 1036
Table 78.2: History of Regimes in the Maghreb. Source: Compiled by the auhor. 1037
78.3.2 International Disputes and Armament 1039
Figure 78.2: Western Sahara. Source: Map 3175, Rev. 2, January 2004. United Nations, Department of Peacekeeping Operations, Cartographic Section. Reprinted with permission at: <
78.4 Forms of Indirect Violence 1042
Table 78.3: Selected social and economic indicators for the ‘Core’ Maghreb. Source: UNDP’s Human Development Report 2006. 1043
Algeria 1043
Morocco 1043
Tunisia 1043
78.5 Conclusion: Future Prospects of Human Security in the Maghreb 1045
79 Human Security Concepts, Approaches and Debates in Southeast Asia 1048
Zarina Othman 1048
79.1 Introduction 1048
Figure 79.1: Map of Southeast Asia and of the ASEAN Countries. Source: University of Texas at Austin, Perry-Castañeda Library Ma... 1049
Table 79.1: Membership of Southeast Asian countries in regional IGOS and NGOs: APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) ARF (AS...
International Organizations 1050
Regional Networks, NGOs and Institutes 1050
APEC 1050
ARF 1050
ASEAN 1050
EAC 1050
AltSEAN 1050
APA 1050
APR 1050
CSCAP 1050
ISIS 1050
RWGHR 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X (1984) 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
(1999) 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
(1967) 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
(1997) 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
(1967) 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
(1997) 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
(1967) 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
(1967) 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
(1967) 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
(1995) 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
X 1050
79.2 Competing Security Approaches in Southeast Asia 1050
Table 79.2: Demographic and Socio-Economic Information of ASEAN States. Source: CIA (2007) at: <
Types of Government 1051
Major Ethnic Groups/ 1051
Religion 1051
GDP per Capita (US$) 1051
Estimation 1051
Land Area/ 1051
Population 1051
(Million/M)/ 1051
Estimation 2008 1051
Absolute Monarchy 1051
Malay/ 1051
Islam 1051
Monarchical/ 1051
Quasi-democracy 1051
Khmer/ 1051
Buddhism 1051
Quasi-democracy 1051
Malay/ 1051
Islam 1051
Communist 1051
Lao/ 1051
Buddhism 1051
Monarchical/ 1051
Quasi-democracy 1051
Malay/ 1051
Islam 1051
Military 1051
Burman/ 1051
Buddhism 1051
Democratic 1051
Filipino/ 1051
Christians 1051
Quasi-democracy 1051
Chinese/ 1051
Buddhism 1051
Monarchical/ 1051
Quasi-democracy 1051
Thai/ 1051
Buddhism 1051
Communist 1051
Viet/ 1051
Buddhism 1051
79.3 Comprehensive Security Concept of ASEAN Members 1051
1. studies that focus on domestic factors where political stability, economic development and social harmony are considered as important ingredients of security (Alagappa 1989 Euraksul 1998)
2. studies that have viewed the phenomenon of growing interdependence in the region, which includes the possibility of cooperative efforts to resolve conflicts (Herrmann 1998 DuPont 1997
3. studies that have looked at the overall well-being of individuals within a state (including human rights) as being important for the state’s comprehensive security (Hassan 1996 Yamamoto 1996).
79.4 Human Security Debate in Southeast Asia and in ASEAN 1053
Table 79.3: Characteristics of Comprehensive Security and Human Security. Source: Compiled by the author. 1055
Components 1055
Comprehensive Security 1055
Human Security 1055
79.5 Suggestions and Conclusions 1057
80 Human Security in Sub-Saharan Africa 1059
Nana K. Poku and Bjorg Sandkjaer 1059
80.1 Introduction 1059
80.2 Human Security and Africa 1059
80.3 Weak States and Vulnerable Societies 1061
80.4 Economic Decline, Poverty and Insecurity 1062
80.5 Structural Adjustment and Human Insecurity 1064
Table 80.1: GDP growth under adjustment - agriculture- growth rate (median) sub Saharan Africa, 1981-1983, 1987-1991 and 1992-1997. Source: Compiled by the authors based on ADB and IMF databases. 1065
1981-1986 1065
1987-91 1065
1992-97 1065
4.2 1065
2.4 1065
2.0 1065
3.1 1065
2.8 1065
2.1 1065
2.3 1065
3.3 1065
2.8 1065
3.1 1065
2.8 1065
2.2 1065
Table 80.2: Summary of poverty indicators for Africa (figures have been rounded). Source: Compiled by the authors based on CPRC (2005) and World Bank (2003). 1066
Population 1066
Population below US$ 1 day (%) (1989-99) 1066
Population below US $2 day (%) 1066
(1993- 2000) 1066
Infant mor- tality 1066
rate 1066
(2000) 1066
Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000 live births 2001) 1066
Life expectancy, years (2000) 1066
Adult Illiteracy rate (2000) 1066
M 1066
F 1066
M 1066
F 1066
Table 80.3: African poverty 1980 - 2003 (Figures have been rounded). Source: Compiled by the authors based on CPRC (2005) and World Bank (2003e). 1066
Change in infant mortality rate (per 1000) 1066
Change in life expectancy (years) 1066
Change in Adult Illiteracy (per 1000) 1066
Average annual change in household consumption per capita (% points) 1066
M 1066
F 1066
M 1066
F 1066
80.6 The Challenge of the MDGs 1066
Table 80.4: The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and targets. Source: Compiled by the authors based on UN Millennium Project (2005c). 1067
80.6.1 Eradicating Extreme Poverty and Hunger 1067
Figure 80.1: The increase in proportion of hungry is the greatest in sub-Saharan Africa. Source: United Nations (2005: 8). 1068
Figure 80.2: Undernourished in Africa, estimated and projected, in millions. Source: United Nations (2005) and United Nations Millennium Development Goal Indicators Data Base at: <
80.6.2 Achieving Universal Primary Education 1068
Figure 80.3: Gender and education in sub-Saharan Africa. Source: UNICEF (2006: 117). 1069
Figure 80.4: Children not enrolled in school, sub-Saharan Africa, per cent*. Source: UNESCO Data Base on Millennium Development Goal Attain- ment at: <
Figure 80.5: Infant Mortality Rate. Source: United Nations World Population Prospects Data Base at <
Figure 80.6: Maternal mortality, SSA countries with rates higher than 1000 in 2000. Source: UN Statistics Division MDG indicators data base. 1070
80.6.3 Improving Maternal Health and Reducing Child Mortality 1070
Figure 80.7: Women in Parliament in 2004. Source: Population Reference Bureau (2005) United Nations (2005).
80.6.4 Promote Gender Equality and Empowerment of Women 1071
80.7 Conclusion 1071
81 Human Security in Central America 1073
Philippe De Lombaerde and Matthew Norton 1073
81.1 Introduction 1073
81.2 Conceptual and Theoretical Framework 1074
81.3 Human Security Threats and Challenges in Central America 1075
Table 81.1: Perceptions of threats to human security ranked by sub-region. Source: Compiled by the authors based on Rojas (2004: 10). 1076
1 1076
2 1076
3 1076
4 1076
5 1076
6 1076
7 1076
- 1076
81.4 ‘Freedom from Fear’: Social and Political Dimensions of Human Security in Central America 1076
81.4.1 Interlocked Threats to Human Security 1076
81.4.2 Gang Violence and Illegal Trafficking 1077
81.4.3 Policing the Gangs and the Problems of Policing 1078
81.4.4 Democratic Transitions 1078
81.4.5 Violence Against Women 1079
81.4.6 Border Disputes 1079
Table 81.2: Inter-state militarized conflicts in the Americas, 1990-2001. Source: Own calculations based on Mares (2003). 1080
US 1080
Central America 1080
Caribbean 1080
Andean region 1080
Southern Cone 1080
- 1080
# = 1 1080
µ = 3,0 1080
# = 6 1080
µ = 3,2 1080
# = 10 1080
µ = 3,0 1080
- 1080
# = 19 1080
µ = 3,5 1080
- 1080
# = 1 1080
µ = 2,0 1080
- 1080
- 1080
# = 5 1080
µ = 3,8 1080
- 1080
# = 13 1080
µ = 3,5 1080
- 1080
- 1080
81.5 Human Security as ‘Freedom from Want’ 1080
Table 81.3: Selected development indicators for Central America: Source: < http://hdr.undp.org/statistics>
Belize 1081
Costa Rica 1081
El Salvador 1081
Guatemala 1081
Honduras 1081
Nicaragua 1081
Panamá 1081
Latin America/ Caribbean 1081
71,3 1081
78,6 1081
70,4 1081
66,1 1081
66,1 1081
68,8 1081
75,0 1081
70,9 1081
3,0 1081
1,7 1081
1,7 1081
2,6 1081
2,5 1081
2,5 1081
1,5 1081
1,4 1081
0,3 1081
4,0 1081
6,7 1081
12,6 1081
7,1 1081
5,6 1081
3,0 1081
541,3 1081
77,1 (00) 1081
95,9 1081
77,1 1081
63,3 1081
80,2 (2001) 1081
76,6 1081
91,3 (2000) 1081
88,1 (2004) 1081
76,7 (00) 1081
95,7 1081
82,4 1081
75,4 1081
79,8 (2001) 1081
76,8 1081
92,6 (2000) 1081
89,9 (2004) 1081
99,2 1081
90,4 1081
90,4 1081
87,3 1081
87,5 (2001) 1081
85,5 1081
99,6 1081
95,3 1081
Na 1081
na 1081
na 1081
56,2 1081
na 1081
na 1081
na 1081
7,0 1081
3,3 1081
1,9 1081
2,6 1081
3,8 1081
2,9 1081
3,2 1081
2,3 1081
3.940 1081
4.670 1081
2.350 1081
2.130 1081
1.030 1081
790 1081
4.450 1081
3.600 1081
71 1081
89 1081
78 1081
72 1081
89 1081
78 1081
89 1081
84 1081
58.458 1081
27.967 1081
2.755 1081
8.857 1081
13.776 1081
34.672 1081
49.262 1081
25.193 1081
109 1081
193 1081
84 (2003) 1081
33 1081
25 1081
17 1081
62 (2003) 1081
106 (2003) 1081
Na 1081
22 1081
na 1081
Na 1081
na 1081
11 1081
na 1081
Na 1081
77 1081
79 1081
60 1081
38 1081
66 1081
61 1081
30 1081
42 1081
54 1081
47 1081
27 1081
16 1081
36 1081
24 1081
59 1081
24 1081
0,1 1081
16.265 1081
1.759 1081
1.257 1081
464 1081
595 1081
440 1081
- 1081
44 1081
7 1081
29 1081
20 1081
56 1081
152 1081
10 1081
12 1081
81.6 Human Security as ‘Freedom from Hazard Impacts’ 1082
81.7 Regional Cooperation and Integration as Responses to Human Security Challenges 1082
81.7.1 The Regional Dimension of the HS Issues in CA 1082
Table 81.4: Stock of Natural Disasters Affecting Central American Countries. Source: OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) at: <
Drought 1083
Earth-quake 1083
Epidemic 1083
Extreme temperature 1083
Famine 1083
Flood 1083
Slides 1083
Volcano 1083
Wave/surge 1083
Wild fires 1083
Wind storm 1083
Totals 1083
81.7.2 Building Blocks for Regional Cooperation and Integration 1084
81.8 Conclusions 1086
82 Human Security: a South American Perspective 1087
Francisco Rojas Aravena 1087
82.1 Introduction 1087

8. New threats to security and
9. Development gaps. 1087
Figure 82.1: Map of South America. Source: © 2005-2007 Map-Of-South-America.us. All rights reserved. Download at: < http://www.map-of-south-america.us/south-america-map.gif>
1. Latin America and the Caribbean have had, and still have, a marginal position in global strategic affairs. 1088
2. Latin America has not consolidated a disarmament policy in relation to weapons of mass destruction. 1088
3. The military spending of Latin America and the Caribbean is low by comparison with the rest of the world. 1088
4. International security institutions are weak in Latin America and the Caribbean. 1088
5. Latin America has reached consensus on a common conceptual framework for security. 1088
6. Internal conflicts. 1088
7. The United States was the main actor in the region and hemisphere during the Cold War, and still is. 1088
82.2 Conceptual Approach on Human Security 1089
82.3 Double Human Security Triad 1089
82.3.1 Human Rights, Human Development and Human Security 1090
82.3.2 International, State and Human Security 1090
Table 82.1: Conceptualization of National, International and Human Security Dimensions. Source: Gurtov (1999: 25- 26). Permission was obtained from Rienner Publishers. 1091
82.4 South America as a Part of the Main Vulnerabilities 1091
Table 82.2: The five variables of human security and mutual vulnerability. Source: Goucha/Rojas Aravena (2003: 22). 1092
Variables 1092
Ecology 1092
(Life) 1092
Economy 1092
(Wealth) 1092
Society 1092
(Support) 1092
Politics 1092
(Power) 1092
Culture 1092
(Knowledge) 1092
1. Socio-economic vulnerabilities. Social and economic vulnerabilities reflect the growing inability of the production, trading ... 1091
2. Social integration and vulnerability. The persistence of high levels of poverty in the region, combined with the weakness of ... 1092
3. Politico-institutional vulnerabilities: weak democracies. In Latin America, democracy has proved to be the best political sys... 1092
4. International security vulnerabilities (traditional). In the Latin American region the traditional conflict and associated in... 1092
5. Internal security vulnerabilities. The social violence and crime became an important problem in Latin American countries. The... 1093
6. Environmental vulnerabilities. Since the 1990’s the existence of a world environmental crises have been widely discussed. Thi... 1093
82.5 New Threats in Latin America 1093
82.6 The South American Community of Nations 1093
82.7 Policies for Action on Human Security 1094
Table 82.3: South American Data. Source: Prepared by the author. 1095
Territory 1095
Population (million) 1095
(HDI 2005) 1095
GNP - Per Capita 1095
(HDI 2005) 1095
HDI Rank 1095
(2005) 1095
83 Human Security in North America: A Canadian Perspective 1097
David R. Black and Larry A. Swatuk 1097
83.1 Introduction 1097
83.2 Human Security Debates and Perspectives from Europe and North America 1098
83.3 Human Security in Canadian Foreign Policy: Tracking the ‘Official’ Trajectory 1099
83.4 Academic Debates 1101
83.4.1 Supportive Perspectives 1102
83.4.2 Conservative Critics 1103
83.4.3 Critical and Transformative Perspectives 1104
83.5 Conclusion 1105
84 Human Security Initiatives of Japan 1107
Hideaki Shinoda 1107
84.1 Introduction 1107
84.2 Initial Reference to Human Security by the Japanese Government 1108
84.3 The Japanese Government’s Reference to Human Security in the Post - 9 - 11 World 1110
84.4 Reasons for Japan’s Interest in Human Security 1112
84.5 Japan and Human Security in the Post-9 - 11 - World 1113
85 Human Security: International Discourses and Local Reality - Case of Mali 1115
Max Schott 1115
Studying security issues on the ground inevitably leads to the discovery of the inadequacy of our concept of human security (Burgess/Owen 2004: 345) 1115
85.1 Introduction 1115
85.2 Discourses on Human Security: Rhetorical Categories and Arguments on its raison d’être 1116
85.2.1 Three Rhetorical Categories in the Discourses on the Human Security Concept 1116
85.2.2 Human Security as a Response to New Transnational Threats or Power Struggles: Common Arguments for the Promotion of Human Security 1117
85.3 Human Security on the Policy Level: Mali in the Human Security Network 1117
85.3.1 Mali’s Human Security Priorities as Chair of the Human Security Network 1118
85.3.2 Mali: An Autonomous Actor Within the Human Security Network? 1119
85.4 Human Security Facing Local Reality: A Bottom-up View from Mali 1119
Figure 85.1: Interview Situation in the Village Tienfala, Mali, 2003. Source: photo by Max Schott. 1120
85.4.1 Methodology for a Human Security Survey 1120
85.4.2 Subjecting the Human Security Concept to Local Reality: Experience of Human Security in Mali 1121
85.4.2.1 Three Main Aspects of Human Security in Mali 1121
Table 85.1: Perception of causes/effects related to the seven human security dimensions by the local population of Mali in urban, pre-urban and rural areas. Source: Compiled by the author. 1122
Table 85.2: Ranking of the seven human security dimensions by local populations. Source: Compiled by the author.. 1123
Urban area 1123
Pre-urban area 1123
Rural area 1123
General 1123
Women 1123
Men 1123
Total 1123
Women 1123
Men 1123
Total 1123
Women 1123
Men 1123
Total 1123
Women 1123
Men 1123
Total 1123
2.5 1123
2.5 1123
2.5 1123
1.7 1123
1.6 1123
1.7 1123
2.8 1123
4.3 1123
3.6 1123
2.3 1123
2.8 1123
2.6 1123
2.3 1123
2.2 1123
2.3 1123
2.0 1123
2.0 1123
2.0 1123
1.8 1123
2.0 1123
1.9 1123
2.0 1123
2.1 1123
2.1 1123
1.9 1123
1.7 1123
1.8 1123
3.0 1123
3.2 1123
3.1 1123
2.3 1123
1.7 1123
2.0 1123
2.4 1123
2.2 1123
2.3 1123
5.1 1123
4.6 1123
4.9 1123
5.3 1123
5.0 1123
5.2 1123
5.1 1123
5.0 1123
5.1 1123
5.2 1123
4.9 1123
5.1 1123
4.4 1123
4.2 1123
4.3 1123
4.1 1123
4.4 1123
4.3 1123
4.7 1123
4.7 1123
4.7 1123
4.4 1123
4.4 1123
4.4 1123
6.1 1123
6.3 1123
6.2 1123
5.2 1123
5.0 1123
5.1 1123
4.5 1123
5.4 1123
5.0 1123
5.3 1123
5.6 1123
5.4 1123
5.9 1123
6.5 1123
6.2 1123
6.7 1123
6.8 1123
6.8 1123
6.6 1123
6.5 1123
6.6 1123
6.4 1123
6.6 1123
6.5 1123
85.4.3 Human Security Priorities at the Policy Level and Human Security Concerns of the Local Population: Discrepancy and Correspondence 1124
85.4.4 Conclusion 1124
86 Enhancing Human Rights - A Contribution to Human Security 1125
Dieter Senghaas 1125
86.1 Introduction 1125
86.2 The Emergence of the Concept of Human Rights and Human Security 1125
86.3 Human Rights as the Result of a Cultural Revolution 1126
86.4 History Repeats Itself Indeed 1128
86.5 Conclusion 1128
87 Natural Disasters, Vulnerability and Human Security 1130
Fabien Nathan 1130
87.1 Introduction 1130
87.2 What Insecurity : Natural Risks and Disasters 1130
87.2.1 Types of Hazards, Disasters, and Impacts 1130
87.2.1.1 Hazards 1130
87.2.1.2 Types of Disasters 1131
87.2.1.3 Types of Societal Impacts 1131
87.2.1.4 Disaster Impacts of Natural Hazards 1131
87.2.1.5 Human Damages 1131
87.2.2 Cost of Disasters 1132
87.2.3 Water-related Disasters 1132
87.2.4 Urban Disasters 1132
87.2.5 Definition of a Disaster 1133
87.3 The Sources of Vulnerabilities and Affected Areas 1133
87.3.1 The Geographic and Wealth Inequalities Among Impacts 1133
87.3.2 Explanation of These Inequalities : Risk, Vulnerability, and Insecurity 1134
87.3.3 Features of Vulnerability 1134
87.3.3.1 General Features 1134
87.3.3.2 Components of Vulnerability 1135
87.3.4 Trends in Global Vulnerability 1135
87.4 Inclusion of Hazard Threats in Human Security 1136
87.4.1 Requisites of an Integral Conception of Security 1136
1. recognize the threats : e.g. natural disasters and their various impacts other related threats

5. identify the agents of insecurity : social, economical, ecological, political, cultural forces and actors involved, and all t... 1136
6. propose a desirable state of security : stability, absence or minimized disasters and
7. propose the necessary changes to reach it : prevention, mitigation, preparedness, precaution, but also the struggle against misery, precariousness, inequalities of wealth and power, domination, ecological degradation, etc. 1136
87.4.2 Advantages of the Human Security Concept 1136
87.4.3 Shortcomings of the Human Security Concept 1137
87.5 Conclusion 1138
88 Environment as an Element of Human Security in Southeast Asia: Case Study on the Thai Tsunami 1139
Surichai Wun’Gaeo 1139
88.1 Introduction 1139
88.2 Geographical Context: The ASEAN Region and Thailand 1139
Figure 88.1: Map of Southeast Asia: Source: University of Texas at Austin, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection. This map is in the public domain at: <
Figure 88.2: Impact of the Tsunami in the Indian Ocean on 26 December 2004. Source: UNOCHA Situation Report No. 18 (14 Janaury 2... 1141
88.2.1 The Indian Ocean Tsunami 1140
88.3 Environment and Human Security: A Theoretical Framework 1142
88.3.1 Human Security and ‘Social’ Vulnerability to Hazards 1143
88.3.2 Environment as an Element of Human Security 1143
Table 88.1: Summarized Table of Natural Disasters in Thailand from 1955 to 2006. Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database at: <
# of Events 1144
Killed 1144
Injured 1144
Homeless 1144
Affected 1144
Total Affected 1144
Damage US$ (000's) 1144
5 1144
1 1144
5 1144
52 1144
2 1144
4 1144
1 1144
1 1144
25 1144
Figure 88.3: Map of Thailand. Source: Map 3853, Rev. 1, January 2004. UN Cartographic Service. Department of Field Support at: <
Figure 88.4: Satellite images of the Northern Kho Lak Bay (Thailand.) before and after the Tsunami. Source: UNOSAT, International Charter Space and Major Disasters Product ID: 325 - 14 Jan, 2005 at: <
88.4 Environmental Threats to Human Security in Southeast Asia: Thailand and the Tsunami 1145
88.4.1 Tsunami Impacts on Humans and Their Possessions 1145
Figure 88.5: Satellite images of Ko Phuket (Thailand.) after the Tsunami. Source: UNOSAT, International Charter Space and Major Disasters Product ID: 327 - 14 Jan, 2005 at: <
88.4.2 Hazard Impacts and Social Vulnerability 1148
Figure 88.6: The Vulnerability Cycle. Source: Designed by the author. 1148
88.4.3 Interpretation of the Tsunami: Focusing on Hazards Posing Threats to Human Security in Thailand, and the State as an Intervening Factor 1149
88.5 Conclusion and Reflections 1150
89 The Impossibility of Securitizing Gender vis à vis ‘Engendering’ Security 1151
Serena Eréndira Serrano Oswald 1151
89.1 Introduction 1151
89.2 The Concept of Security 1151

5. is linked to a negative conception of liberty, ‘freedom from’, in terms defined by Isaiah Berlin (2002), (should be considered more comprehensively). 1152
89.3 Gender 1153
89.4 A Glance at Feminism 1154
89.5 The Impossibility of Securitizing Gender 1155
89.6 Identity and Representations 1156
89.7 Women Between and Beyond (Inter)National and Human Security 1160
89.8 Conclusion 1163
90 A HUGE Gender Security Approach: Towards Human, Gender, and Environmental Security 1165
Úrsula Oswald Spring 1165
90.1 Introduction 1165
90.2 Human, Gender, and Environmental Security: HUGE 1166
90.2.1 Human Security 1166
Table 90.1: Human, Gender, and Environmental Security (HUGE): A Transradical Approach. Source: Møller (2003: 279) Oswald Spring (2001, 2004, 2007e). This table was compiled by the author.
90.2.2 Environmental Security 1167
90.2.3 Gender Security 1168
90.2.3.1 Gender as Analytical Concept 1168
90.2.3.2 Gender Security Studies 1170
90.3 Evolution of Gender Security 1170
90.3.1 Epistemological Feminism 1172
90.3.2 Feminist Empiricism 1172
90.3.3 Postmodernism 1173
90.3.4 Standpoint Feminism 1173
90.4 Four Phases of Gender Security Studies 1174
90.4.1 Analysis of Identity and Social Representations 1174
90.4.2 Identity and Gift Economy 1177
90.4.3 Ecofeminism 1178
90.4.4 New Social Movements 1181
90.5 Human, Gender, and Environmental Security: HUGE 1183
90.6 Conclusions 1186
Figure 90.1: Human, Gender, and Environmental Security: A HUGE scientific concept and an approach for action to face the security issues of the anthropocene era. Source: Designed by the author. 1187
a) the nonviolent resistance of indigenous societies (Gaitán 2003, 2004 Gil 2004
b) the nonviolent liberation struggle of Gandhi (1993, 1996), later the feminist fights for equity and safe environment in India... 1186
c) the tradition of independence fights and liberation of military regimes through guerrilla movements (Che Guevara, EZLN, Shini... 1186
d) grass-root mass organizations offering alternatives to exclusion through an economy of solidarity, locally integrated enterpr... 1187
e) organized religious solidarity communities such as the Christian Grass-roots Movement (Movimiento Cristiano de Base), inspire... 1188
91 Human Security and the Governmentality of Neo-liberal Mobility: A Feminist Perspective 1190
Thanh-Dam Truong 1190
91.1 Introduction 1190
91.2 Neo-liberal Governmentality, Gender and Culture 1191
91.3 Countering Neo-liberalism: Human Security as a Political Rationality 1194
91.4 Conclusion 1196
92 Gender Security in South East Asia and Trafficking of Children for Sexual Exploitation in Central America: HUGE Security Challenges 1197
Mary Soledad L. Perpiñan, María Eugenia Villarreal and Úrsula Oswald Spring 1197
92.1 Introduction 1197
92.2 Some Theoretical Reflections 1198
92.3 Field Work and Case Studies on South East Asia 1200
Box 92.1: Conflicts in South East Asia Affecting the National, Human, Gender, and Environmental Security of the countries and their people. T his text was written by Hans Günter Brauch. 1201
92.3.1 Peace Building Workshops 1202
92.3.1.1 Displaced Indigenous Women in the Cordillera of the Philippines 1202
92.3.1.2 Burmese Refugees in a Thai Camp 1202
Figure 92.1: Map of South East Asia. Source: This map provided by Relief Web on 24 January 1997 is in the public domain at: <
92.3.1.3 Urban Poor of Phnom Penh 1202
92.3.1.4 Rural Poor of Siem Reap 1203
92.3.1.5 Lumads in Militarized Agusan 1203
92.3.1.6 Muslims, Christians, Indigenous Women Affected by Armed Encounters 1204
Figure 92.2: Map of the Philippines. Source: University of Texas at Austin, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection at: <
92.3.1.7 Muslims of Marawi, Islamic City 1204
92.3.2 Results of a ‘Conscientizing Inquiry’ on Security 1204
92.3.2.1 Impacts for ‘Gender Security’ 1206
92.3.2.2 Aggressive Development Practices and Neocolonialism 1206
92.3.2.3 Armed Conflict and the Military Junta 1207
Box 92.2: Nobel Peace Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi on gender security. Presentation to the UN World Conference on Women, Beijing (1... 1208
92.3.2.4 Aftermath of the Killing Fields 1207
92.3.2.5 The US Military Presence 1208
92.4 Case Study on Trafficking of Children for Sexual Exploitation in Central America 1209
Box 92.3: Overview of military rule, guerrilla wars, and foreign military presence in Central America. 1210
Table 92.1: Violence in Central America (1946-2005) due to military and authoritarian rule, guerrilla activities and foreign int... 1210
Military/authoritarian rule, revolts, guerrilla conflicts 1210
Intervention, consequences, facts and foreign presence 1210
year 1210
Type and intensity 1210
History, causes and parties to the conflict 1210
Date 1210
Effects 1210
Box 92.4: Background data on Guatemala. This text is in the public domain. 1212
92.4.1 Commercial Sexual Exploitation of Children 1213
Figure 92.3: Map of Central America. Source: University of Texas at Austin, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection at: <
92.4.2 Sex Trafficking in Central America 1214
Figure 92.4: Trafficking Routes in Central America. Source: Casa Alianza, Guatemala (2003). 1214
92.4.3 Causes of Sex-Trafficking of Children 1214
92.4.4 Legal Instruments to Counter the Trafficking of Children 1215
92.4.5 Problems of Legal Implementation in Central America 1215
92.5 Conclusions 1216
Figure 92.5: Human, Gender and Environmental Security from Bottom-up and Top-down. Source: Úrsula Oswald Spring (2004a). 1219
93 Do Disasters Discriminate? A Human Security Analysis of the Impact of the Tsunami in India, Sri Lanka and of the Kashmir Earthquake in Pakistan 1221
Madhavi Malalgoda Ariyabandu and Dilrukshi Fonseka 1221
93.1 Threats to Human Security - Vulnerability and Disaster Risk 1221
93.2 Vulnerable Identities Unfolded 1222
Figure 93.1: Damage assessment map of the Tsunami on the coast line of Tamil Nadu, India (29 December 2004). Source: UNOSAT/Infoterra at: <
93.2.1 Denominators of Identity and Differential Impacts of the Disasters 1222
Figure 93.2: Sri Lanka East Coast. Potentially Affected Areas of the Tsunami (2 January 2005). Comparison Tsunami Pre & Post Cri...
Figure 93.3: Satellite images on the Impact of the Tsunami on the South West Coast of Sri Lanka, Galle Area (before and after th... 1225
93.2.2 Vulnerable Within the Vulnerable 1224
Figure 93.4: Satellite images on the Impact of the Tsunami on the South East Coast of Sri Lanka, Galle Area (before and after th... 1226
93.3 Disaster Recovery Responses 1226
93.3.1 Inequalities in Relief Delivery - Disparities, New Divides and Deepening Conflicts 1226
Figure 93.5: Satellite images on the Impact of the Tsunami on the East Coast of Sri Lanka (before and after the disaster). Sourc... 1227
93.3.2 Housing Insecurities - Delays and Discriminations 1227
Table 93.1: Post-tsunami Construction Status - Donor- built Housing Projects (December 2005). Source: RADA (2005: 12). 1228
District 1228
Total houses damaged 1228
Total units assigned to donors 1228
Total under construction 1228
93.3.3 Poor Protection of Women’s Property Rights 1228
93.3.4 Regaining Lost Livelihoods at the Cost of Creating Opportunities and Strengthening Livelihoods 1228
93.3.5 Invisible Capacities and Denied Participation 1229
93.3.6 Swimming Through the Tides of Violence 1230
93.3.7 Gender Blind Livelihood Recovery 1230
93.4 Breaking the Vicious Cycle of Vulnerability - Securing Lives and Livelihoods 1231
93.4.1 Develop Knowledge, Awareness and Capacities 1232
93.4.2 Challenge the Gaps 1232
94 Failed Narco-state or a Human Security Failure? Ethical and Methodological Ruptures with a Traditional Read of the Afghan Quagmire 1233
Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh 1233
94.1 Introduction 1233
94.1.1 Purpose of the Chapter 1234
94.1.2 Structure of the Chapter 1234
Figure 94.1: Relief Map of Afghanistan (2003). Source: University of Texas at Austin, Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection at: <
94.2 Conceptualizing the State and Its Failures, Motivations and Evaluations 1234
94.2.1 The Realist View of ‘Danger to International Security’ 1234
94.2.2 The Liberal Institutional View: Underdevelopment as Dangerous 1236
94.2.3 The Human Security Alternative: Legitimacy from the Point of View of Populations 1237
94.2.4 Alternative Reads of the Afghan Quagmire 1238
Figure 94.2: NATO in Afghanistan: International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs). Data valid as of 15 November 2006 Source: NATO at: <
94.3 How to Deal with Failed States? Responses and Responsibilities 1240
94.3.1 To Intervene or Not? 1240
94.3.1.1 The Failure of the ‘Intervention’ in Afghanistan 1241
94.3.1.2 ‘War is Hell’ as Opposed to ‘War as Hell’: The Human Toll 1242
94.3.2 Stabilization and Securitization 1243
94.3.3 The Institutional Solution: Engagement through Aid 1244
94.3.4 State-building: The End State Vision and Its Responsibilities 1245
94.3.4.1 Liberal Approach to State Responsibility and its Applicability in Post-Conflict Contexts 1245
94.3.4.2 Failure to Establish Liberal Peace in Afghanistan 1245
94.3.4.3 Coordinated/Integrated or Piecemeal Sector-specific Approach and Prioritization of Security over Development 1247
94.4 Conclusions: An Ethical and Methological Rupture 1248
95 Relevance of Human and Environmental Security Concepts for the Military Services: A Perspective of a Former Chief of Staff 1250
Joseph G. Singh 1250
95.1 Introduction 1250
95.2 Evolving Concepts of Human Security 1251
95.2.1 Manifestations of Instability Linked to the Environment 1251
95.2.2 The Poverty Challenge 1251
95.2.3 The Democratic Challenge: Good Governance 1251
95.2.4 The Sustainable Development Challenge 1252
95.2.5 Strategic Responses to Threats to Human Security 1252
95.3 Evolving Concepts on Environmental Security 1252
95.3.1 Environmental Security and Scarcities 1252
95.3.2 Environmental Threats Impacting on Human Security 1253
95.3.3 Strategic Responses to Threats 1253
95.4 The Military Services and Relevance of Concepts 1254
95.4.1 The Military and Impact on Human Security 1254
95.4.2 The Military and Impact on Environmental Security 1254
95.4.2.1 Evolving Concepts in the USA 1254
95.4.2.2 Evolving Concepts in India 1254
95.4.2.3 Evolving Concepts in Brazil 1255
95.4.2.4 Discussion on General Implications for the Military Services 1255
95.5 Human and Environmental Security in the Caribbean 1256
95.5.1 Current Threat Assessment 1256
95.6 Implications for the Military in the Caribbean 1256
95.6.1 Regional Threats and Importance of Networking 1256
95.6.2 Regional Threats and Importance of Synergy 1257
95.7 Conclusion 1257
96 Towards a Human Security-Based Early Warning and Response System 1258
Albrecht Schnabel and Heinz Krummenacher 1258
96.1 Introduction: Early Warning for Human Security Purposes 1258
96.2 From Conflict- to Human Security - Early Warning Systems 1259
96.2.1 Genesis of Early Warning 1259
96.2.2 Why a Human Security Focus? 1260
96.2.2.1 Human Security as a Guide for Preventive Activity 1260
96.2.2.2 Human Security as a Pragmatic Notion 1260
96.2.2.3 Human Security Concepts in and for the UN System 1261
96.2.3 Human Security - From Debate to Policy? 1261
96.2.4 Challenges and Opportunities of Human Security-based Early Warning 1263
96.2.4.1 Focus of Early Warning 1263
96.2.4.2 Method 1263
96.2.4.3 Recipient of Analysis 1264
96.2.4.4 Quality of Analysis 1264
96.2.4.5 Warning-Response Gap 1264
96.2.4.6 Political Sensitivity 1265
96.2.4.7 Measuring Success 1265
96.3 Contours of a Human Security- Based Early Warning System 1266
96.3.1 Human Security Threat Analysis 1266
96.3.2 Structure and Procedure 1267
96.3.3 Taking an Early Warning ‘System’ Approach 1267
96.4 Conclusion 1268
97 Methods and Techniques of Remote Sensing to Contribute to Security in Tropical Rain Forests 1271
Dirk H. Hoekman 1271
97.1 Introduction to Information Needs and Techniques 1271
97.2 Space Agencies and Ecosystem Monitoring 1272
97.2.1 Ecosystems 1272
97.2.2 Observations from Space 1272
97.2.3 Recent Developments 1272
97.2.4 New Opportunities 1273
97.2.5 New Approaches 1273
97.3 Peat Swamp Forests and the K& C Initiative
97.3.1 Present Condition of Peat Swamps 1273
97.3.2 K& C Initiative
97.3.3 Radar Observation Methods 1274
Figure 97.1: Satellite radar observations of JERS-1 at 24 September 1996 (top) and 21 January 1998 (bottom) of an area in Centra... 1275
Figure 97.2: JERS-1 SAR time series of the collapse of the peat dome in Kahiyu: (a) 12 Jul 1995 (b) 19 Mar 1997
97.3.4 Mega Rice Project (Central Kalimantan) 1276
97.3.5 Mawas - Kahiyu Peat Swamp Forest (Central Kalimantan) 1276
97.3.6 Sebangau Peat Swamp Forest (Central Kalimantan) 1277
Figure 97.3: In the Sebangau National park several areas of peat dome forest collapse, caused by the 1997 ENSO event, show up as... 1277
97.3.7 Berbak Peat Swamp Forest (Jambi, Sumatra) 1277
97.4 Tree Mapping 1277
97.4.1 Information Needs 1277
Figure 97.4: Analysis of high-resolution interferometric airborne radar data. A strip of approximately 180 m in length and 30 m ... 1278
97.4.2 Tree Mapping Algorithm 1277
97.4.3 TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X Missions 1278
97.5 Summary and Evaluation 1279
97.5.1 Information Needs 1279
97.5.2 Future Missions 1279
97.5.3 Individual Tree Monitoring 1279
97.5.4 Peat Swamp Monitoring 1279
97.5.5 New Approaches to Implement Environmental Security Services 1280
98 Linking Anthropocene, HUGE and HESP: Fourth Phase of Environmental Security Research 1281
Úrsula Oswald Spring, Hans Günter Brauch and Simon Dalby 1281
98.1 Introduction 1281
98.2 Earth System Research and the ‘Anthropocene’ 1282
98.3 Human, Gender and Environmental Security (HUGE) 1283
98.4 Human and Environmental Security and Peace (HESP) 1284
1. Orientation: An equity-oriented Grotian perspective may support multilateral environmental efforts in international organizations and regimes to avoid conflictual outcomes of global environmental change, environmental scarcity, degradation and stress. 1284
2. Spatial Approach. The analysis of environmental security issues on a regional level requires a spatial approach which may be called a political geo-ecology. 1284
3. Human Security Focus: The reference for research and policy should be human beings, individual victims and communities of distress migration, disasters, crises and conflicts. 1284
4. Sustainable Development and Sustainable Peace: A human security perspective to the analysis of environmental security issues may aim at an enduring “sustainable peace”. 1284
5. Causes: The research should broaden the scope to include both environmental degradation and environmental scarcity and their ... 1284
6. Outcomes: The research should include hazards, distress migration and environmental refugees as well as the complex interactions among these outcomes which may often lead to disasters, crises and conflicts. 1284
7. Policy Process: Case studies should include the policy processes, e.g. how the state and the society have responded to the ch... 1285
8. Regional Orientation: A regional perspective on the causes, the policy process and its outcomes is needed. This requires regi... 1285
9. Policy Goals on the Societal and Individual Level: Environmental security studies should contribute to strategies for reducing the impact of environmental stress, decreasing the vulnerability and strengthening the coping capacities and resilience. 1285
10. Policy Goals on the Communal, Sub-national, National and International Level: Strategies for coping with outcomes of environ... 1285
98.5 Substantive Issues for the Fourth Research Phase 1286
Figure 98.1: Scenarios for GHG emissions from 2000 to 2100 (in the absence of additional climate policies) and projections of su... 1287
98.5.1 Extreme Weather Events 1287
Figure 98.2: Development of major natural hazards between 1950 and 2007 (Number of events). Source: © 2008 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft GmbH, GEO Risk Research. NatCatSERVICE. Reprinted with permission. 1288
Figure 98.3: Development of major hydro-meteorological hazards from 1950 to 2007 (Trend of economic and insured damages). Source: © 2008 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft GmbH, GEO Risk Research. NatCatSERVICE. Reprinted with permission. 1289
98.5.2 Social Systems and Gender Relations 1288
98.5.3 Environmental, Social and Urban Vulnerability 1290
98.5.4 Migration 1291
98.5.5 Complex Emergencies, Crises and Conflicts 1292
98.5.6 Resilience-Building and Political Coping Strategies 1293
98.6 Looking Forward: Implementing the Fourth Phase 1294
98.7 Anthropocene Ethics and the Fourth Phase 1297
99 Towards Sustainable Peace for the 21st Century 1299
Hans Günter Brauch and Úrsula Oswald Spring 1299
99.1 Introduction 1299
Figure 99.1: Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts, and responses. Source: IPCC (2007c: 26). Reproduction permitted under IPCC rules. 1300
99.2 Knowledge Creation: Scientific Research and Epistemic Communities 1301
a.) International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), a research programme that studies global change by analysing interactive... 1301
b.) DIVERSITAS integrates biodiversity science for human well-being by linking biology, ecology, and the social sciences, producing socially relevant new knowledge to support sustainable use of biodiversity (Larigauderie/Loreau/Walther 2009). 1302
c.) International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP), an international, interdisciplinary science organization that promotes and ... 1302
d.) World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) that draws on climate-related systems, facilities and intellectual capabilities of 1... 1302
99.3 Translating Knowledge into Policies and Measures 1302
99.4 Facing New Global Challenges: Role of Society 1304
99.5 Facing New Global Challenges: Role of the Business Sectors and Community 1306
Figure 99.2: Global GINI index of income across states and households. (Lesser is more equal). Source: UNEP (2007: 413). 1307
99.6 Responding to New Global Challenges: Role of the State and International Organizations 1307
99.7 New Challenges for International Peace and Security 1309
99.8 Sustainable Peace Policy in the Anthropocene 1310
99.8.1 Strategy of Sustainable Development 1311
Table 99.1: Phases, levels, and instruments of peace-building. 1312
99.8.2 Sustainable Peace as Peace-building 1312
99.8.3 Beyond Environmental Peacemaking 1313
99.8.4 Vision of a Sustainable Peace with Nature 1314
99.8.5 From ‘Facing’ to ‘Coping’ with Global Environmental and Climate Change 1314
100 Summary and Results: Facing Global Environmental Change and Sectorialization of Security 1315
Hans Günter Brauch 1315
100.1 Contextualization of Global Environmental Change 1315
100.2 Securitization of Global Environmental Change 1316
100.3 Securitization of Extreme Natural and Societal Outcomes 1317
100.4 Energy Security for the 21st Century 1318
100.5 Food Security for the 21st Century 1320
100.6 Livelihood and Health Security for the 21st Century 1321
100.7 Water Security for the 21st Century 1322
100.8 Environmental Security Concepts and Debates 1325
100.9 Human and Gender Security Concepts and Debate 1329
100.10 From Knowledge to Action and Policy Outlooks 1335

Erscheint lt. Verlag	4.6.2009
Reihe/Serie	Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace
Reihe/Serie	Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace
Vorwort	R. K. Pachauri, Luc Gnacadja, Achim Steiner, Michael Zammit Cutajar, Joy Ogwu, Sàlvano Briceno, Stavros Dimas, Vandana Shiva
Zusatzinfo	XCVI, 1544 p. With 27 Boxes.
Verlagsort	Berlin
Sprache	englisch
Themenwelt	Naturwissenschaften ► Biologie ► Ökologie / Naturschutz
	Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Geografie / Kartografie
	Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Geologie
	Recht / Steuern ► Öffentliches Recht ► Umweltrecht
	Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung
	Sozialwissenschaften ► Soziologie
	Technik
	Wirtschaft
Schlagworte	climate change • Climate Change Management • Desertification • Environmental change • Environmental Policy • Human geography • International Relations • Migration
ISBN-10	3-540-68488-3 / 3540684883
ISBN-13	978-3-540-68488-6 / 9783540684886

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