Climate Change in the 21st Century

Stewart J. Cohen is senior researcher in climate change impacts and adaptation, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, and adjunct professor, Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia. Melissa W. W

Preface; Acknowledgments; List of Figures; List of Tables; List of Websites of Interest 1 The Many Dimensions of Climate Change in the 21st Century 2 The History of Climate Change Research from the 1820s Introduction; Pioneer studies of anthropogenic climate change, 1820s - 1930s; Broadening of the climate change research effort, 1950s - 1970s; The growth of scenario-based research, 1980s; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Conferences of the Parties (COPs); GHG Scenarios; Kyoto Protocol; Role of Mass Media; Discussion 3 The Climate Science Aspects of Climate Change Introduction; The Energy Balance and the Global Climate System; The Global Carbon Cycle; Signal Detection; Atmosphere Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs); Challenges for Climate Model Development; Radiative Forcing; Model Resolution; Clouds and Precipitation; The Land-Surface "Bucket"; Summary of Climate Model Issues; Emission Scenarios; Alternative Climate Change Scenarios; Choosing a Scenario; Discussion 4 Impact and Adaptation Assessment Framework Introduction; Organizing the Assessment; Challenges for Impact and Adaptation Assessment; Scenario Approach versus Vulnerability Approach; Discussion 5 Ecosystem Processes and Climate Change Introduction; Background; General Plant Responses to Changing CO2 and Temperature; C3 and C4 Plants and Their Responses to Changing Climate and Temperature; CO2 Enrichment and Effects on Plant Communities; Observed Impacts of Recent Climatic Variability on Ecosystems and Landscapes; Potential Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios; Impacts on Crops; Impacts on Parks; Impacts on Water Resources; Impacts on Fisheries; Discussion 6 The Economic Aspects of Climate Change Introduction; Challenges to Economic Assessments of Climate Change Impacts; Terminology and Key Concepts; Welfare, value, and Purchasing Power Parity; Supply and demand; Discounting; Willingness to Pay and other concepts; Market Versus Non-market Values; Uncertainties in Defining Costs; Cost-Benefit Analysis; The Ricardian approach; Sustainability approach; Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change; Agriculture; Water Resources; Coastal Zones; Disasters from Extreme Events; Higher Order Impacts of Climate Change; Health; Value of a Statistical Life (VOSL); Total Monetized Damages; Ethical concerns associated with economic analyses; Discussion 7 The Social Aspects of Climate Change Impacts Introduction; Social Dimensions to Climate Change; Background; Vulnerability; Adaptive Capacity and Coping Range; Studying Impacts Versus Studying Vulnerabilities; Differential Capacities for Responses to Climate Change; Climate Change and Human Settlements; Differential Impacts; Differential Vulnerabilities and Risks; Differential Emissions; Equity in Climate Change Responses; Adaptation; New Adaptation Considerations; Discussion 8 Mitigation Responses to Climate Change - Overview of the Process Introduction; Background; Emission Trends, Scenarios, and Stabilisation; UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol Negotiation Process; Negotiations of Emission Reduction Targets; The 1998-2004 COPs; Introduction to the Kyoto Protocol Instruments; Overview of the Kyoto Instruments; Supporting Infrastructure; Summary 9 Mitigation Responses to Climate Change - Trading and Investment Mechanisms Introduction; Carbon Sinks; Carbon Sinks and the Carbon Cycle; Challenges with Carbon Accounting; Carbon Sinks as a Policy Mechanism; Joint Implementation; Clean Development Mechanism; Emissions Trading; Challenges with "Hot Air"; New Technology; Contraction and Convergence; Adaptation and Mitigation Linkages; Climate Change Policy Challenges and Dilemmas; Can Kyoto Succeed?; Discussion 10 Integrated Assessments of Climate Change Introduction; Integrated Assessment Tool Kit; Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs); Cultural Theory; Complex Adaptive Systems; Examples of IAMs; Case Studies of IAMs; TARGETS; ICAM; AIM; Participatory Integrated Assessments (PIAs); Stakeholder Commitment; Organizing Integrated Assessments of Climate Change Impacts; Case Studies of PIAs; Mackenzie Basin Impacts Study (MBIS); Okanagan Water Resources; Modelling versus Participatory Processes; Future Challenges and Opportunities; Discussion 11 Context: Climate Change and Other Global Environmental Problems Introduction; Defining Dangerous Climate Change; Linking Climate Change and Sustainable Development; Evolution of the Climate Change Discourse; Evolution of the Sustainable Development Discourse; Consequences of the Separation of these Discourses; Efforts to Link Climate Change and Sustainable Development; Emergence of a South-North Dialogue; Sustainable Development Policy as Part of Climate Change Policy; Climate Policy and Sustainable Development; Discussion 12 Conclusion References