Physical Earthquake Forecasting and Prediction

Dr. Zalohar is a physicist and geologist working as an independent researcher, giving scientific and philosophical lectures at various institutions. He obtained his Ph.D. from the University of Ljubljana in 2008. Dr. Zalohar’s main research fields are physics of faults and earthquakes, stratigraphy, and palaeontology. Among his most important achievements are a series of articles on the Cosserat mechanics of faulting for the Journal of Structural Geology and the development of the T-TECTO software for fault-slip data and earthquakes analysis, which is now recognized and used by structural geologists around the world. During numerous field trips observing tectonic structures in the Alps he and his colleagues made important paleontological discoveries, including identifying the oldest and only-known fossils of seahorses, pipehorses and pygmy pipehorses, new fossil sites with complete skeletons of Triassic reptilians, and fish and other biota from the Tethys ocean. His most important contribution to science is a discovery of a new physical theory of earthquakes that brings a redefinition and solution of the earthquake prediction problem.

PART 1: Statistical testing of the physical earthquake predictions 1. Intrinsic predictability of earthquakes 2. Log-likelihood and PI-tests 3. The reference model – seismic potential 4. Molchan tests 5. Dynamic potential and statistical forecasting PART 2: Tectonic stress 6. Time-dependent tectonic stress and strain fields 7. Analysis of the global vertical deformation 8. Analysis of the global shear stress 9. Precursory stress changes and statistical tests PART 3: Time-synchronizations 10. Time-synchronizations and the local interaction potential 11. Global ensemble analysis of the Time-synchronizations 12. Forecasting the magnitudes of earthquakes 13. Critical regions 14. Statistical tests PART 4: Tectonic couple-stress 15. Systems of tectonic waves 16. Shear tractions 17. Dual tectonic waves 18. Ensemble models of shear tractions and statistical tests 19. Dynamic shear traction and statistical tests 20. Global interaction potential and earthquake triggering PART 5: Alert system and operational earthquake forecasting and prediction 21. Hybrid probability models 22. Comparison between Omega, ETAS and smoothed seismicity models 23. Alert system 24. Long-range forecasting 25. Operational centers and FIS