Techno-economic and ecological evaluation of demand-side management in electrified residential energy systems

Driven by international climate targets, the electrification of heating systems and mobility is causing the boundaries between the electricity, heating and transport sectors to disappear in the energy system and existing market mechanisms to face their limits. Heat pumps and electric vehicles increase electricity consumption in residential buildings and create a new use cases for Demand-Side Management (DSM). This is where the present dissertation begins, aiming to quantify the techno-economic and ecological potential of DSM from the perspective of households and to investigate aspects of its implementation. In this thesis, the potential of DSM is described by its effect on the change of three evaluation measures: costs, CO2 emissions and degree of self-sufficiency, which are determined in timediscrete annual simulations. The model of an electrified residential energy system with model predictive control developed for this purpose is based on mixed-integer linear programming and produces an optimised energy schedule to minimise electricity costs or CO2 emissions. The detailed consideration of CO2 emissions based on the dynamic CO2 factor and its use as an optimisation objective brings a new perspective to the scientific debate. Furthermore, a design-of-experiments simulation study is conceived to analyse technical influencing factors. Five electricity market scenarios are created to examine different development paths of the electricity market. The results show that residential DSM always achieves an improvement in the techno-economic and ecological evaluation measures: if a photovoltaic system is available, cost savings are 2 – 3 %, emission reductions are up to 8 % and the degree of self-sufficiency increases by 15 – 30 %. However, it is a prerequisite to include a minimum prediction horizon of 8 – 12 h into the optimisation. The cost saving potential under dynamic electricity tariffs depends on the price range and distribution of high and low prices (2 – 13.1 %). Participating in decentralised peer-to-peer markets offers a large cost saving or revenue potential for owners of photovoltaic systems (14.4 – 31.3 %). At the same time, households without on-site generation benefit both monetarily (savings of 8.1 – 10.1 %) and ecologically (CO2 reduction of 7.6 – 10.3 %). In summary, this dissertation provides an understanding of the potential and requirements of DSM implementation in residential buildings. Furthermore, the consideration of the market concepts provides a framework for drawing conclusions on the impact of particular incentive mechanisms.