The Future of Antarctica

Jeffrey McGee is Associate Professor at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) and Faculty of Law at the University of Tasmania. His work is published in leading international journals in the fields of Antarctic policy, international environmental law, and climate change policy. He co-edited the book Anthropocene Antarctica, a special issue of the Australian Journal of Maritime and Ocean Affairs on 21st Century Challenges to the Antarctic Treaty System, and the Edward Elgar Research Handbook on Climate Change, Oceans and Coasts. He is an affiliated researcher with Humanities and Social Science expert group of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research. He is also a member of the Australian Government’s consultative forum for the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources and the Tasmanian Polar Network. In 2021, Jeff was a member of the Australian delegation to the 43rdAntarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting. He also has experience as a lecturer on tourist flights to the Ross Sea area and East Antarctica. David Edmiston is a PhD candidate in the Faculty of Law at the University of Tasmania. A career public servant, David holds Masters degrees in public administration and environmental governance, with a focus on Antarctica. In 2019, David undertook an intensive course in geopolitical scenario planning at the Maastricht University Summer School, under the guidance of Dr Leonhardt van Efferink. David’s doctoral project is titled: Portents from the North: Is the Arctic an indicator of future challenges for Antarctic geopolitics, law and governance? Marcus Haward is Professor of Antarctic and Ocean Governance at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania.  He has been a member of Australian delegations to the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting, and to the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources. Marcus has published extensively on Antarctic and ocean governance. He is currently co-leading (with Jeffrey McGee) a multi-year project on Antarctic Geopolitics funded by the Australian Research Council. Marcus co-edited Australia and the Antarctic Treaty System: Fifty Years of Influence UNSW Press, 2011 and most recently authored Governing Oceans in a Time of Change: Fishing for a Future, Edward Elgar, 2020.

Introduction.- History of Antarctic territorial claims and spatial contestation.- Scenario analysis and the limits of prediction.- Objectives, approaches and techniques.- Antarctic geopolitics: Background.- Militarisation of Antarctica.- Antarctic militarisation: Scenario analysis.- Antarctic militarisation: Five scenarios.- Scenario analysis and the classical view of geopolitics.- Conclusion.