Global Nuclear Developments (eBook)

Preface 7
Acknowledgements 9
Contents 11
Acronyms 16
1 Introduction 19
1.1 History, Science, Politics—Power and Primacy 19
1.2 Nuclear Fission and Nuclear Weapons—Intelligence and Absurdity 22
References 23
2 Facts and Institutions 24
2.1 Realities 24
2.2 Global Legal Framework 26
2.2.1 International Atomic Energy Agency—IAEA 26
2.2.2 Non-proliferation Treaty—NPT 26
2.2.3 Nuclear Weapon Free Zones—NWFZ 27
2.2.4 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty—CTBT 28
2.2.5 Nuclear Suppliers Group—NSG 29
2.2.6 UNSC Resolution 1887/2009 on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Nuclear Disarmament 30
2.2.7 Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons—TPNW 30
2.2.8 Treaties, Conventions, Agreements, Resolutions 31
References 32
3 Capability, Threat, Response 33
3.1 Nuclear Capability 33
3.2 Nuclear Threat 34
3.3 Addressing the Nuclear Threat—The Three IAEA “S” 36
3.3.1 Nuclear Safeguards 37
3.3.2 Nuclear Safety and Security 38
Reference 39
4 Nuclear Crises 40
4.1 North Korea 1993–2020 41
4.1.1 History of the Crisis 41
4.2 Iraq 1991 and 2003 51
4.2.1 Personal Experience 51
4.2.2 Historical Events 52
4.3 Iran 2003–2015 and 2018–2020 55
4.3.1 History of Crisis 55
4.3.2 Consequences—Possible Developments 67
4.3.3 Comments 69
4.4 Syria 2011–2020 70
4.4.1 History of an Outstanding Issue 70
4.4.2 Consequences—Results 70
4.4.3 Comment 71
4.5 Libya 2003–2004 72
4.5.1 History 72
4.5.2 Consequences—Results 73
4.5.3 Comment 73
4.6 Romania 1978–1989 74
4.6.1 History 74
4.6.2 Concealed Nuclear Military Dimension 75
4.6.3 Comment 76
4.7 Former Soviet Union 1991–2000 76
4.7.1 New Nuclear Risks 76
4.7.2 Mission to the Nuclear Reactor Beloyarsk, 1986 77
4.7.3 Mission “Sapphire”—Kazakhstan, 1993 80
References 80
5 Nuclear Suitors or Would-be Proliferators 82
5.1 Turkey: Capable or Cunning Bluffer? 82
5.1.1 History—Planning 82
5.1.2 Akkuyu 83
5.1.3 Sinop 87
5.1.4 Igneada 88
5.1.5 International Support 89
5.1.6 Assessment of Turkey’s Nuclear Program 89
5.1.7 Perspective 90
5.1.8 Erdogan—Putin and Geopolitical Uncertainty 90
5.1.9 US Nuclear Weapons in Incirlik 93
5.1.10 Turkish Nuclear Bomb: Reality or Myth? 94
5.1.11 Comments and Conclusions 97
5.2 Saudi Arabia 99
5.3 Egypt 101
5.4 Japan 102
5.4.1 Peaceful Nuclear Energy Program 102
5.4.2 Possible Military Dimension 103
5.5 South Korea 104
5.5.1 Peaceful Nuclear Program 104
5.5.2 Possible Military Dimension 105
References 106
6 Nuclear Accidents—Nuclear Incidents 108
6.1 Nuclear Accidents—Safety 108
6.2 Nuclear Incidents—Security 111
References 117
7 NPT Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) 118
7.1 United States 118
7.1.1 History 118
7.1.2 Trump’s Doctrine and the Munich Security Conference 119
7.1.3 Global Concern and Uncertainty 121
7.1.4 The US and Nuclear Crises 123
7.2 Russia 127
7.2.1 History 127
7.2.2 Present 128
7.2.3 Future 129
7.3 China 131
7.3.1 History 131
7.3.2 Peaceful Nuclear Program 131
7.3.3 Military Nuclear Program 133
7.4 United Kingdom 133
7.4.1 History 133
7.4.2 Peaceful Nuclear Program 134
7.4.3 Military Nuclear Program 135
7.5 France 135
7.5.1 History 135
7.5.2 Peaceful Nuclear Program 135
7.5.3 Military Nuclear Program 136
7.6 Nuclear Weapons in Non-nuclear Weapon States 137
References 137
8 Non-NPT Nuclear Weapon States 138
8.1 India 138
8.1.1 Peaceful Nuclear Program 138
8.1.2 Military Nuclear Program 139
8.1.3 Future 140
8.2 Pakistan 141
8.2.1 Peaceful Nuclear Program 141
8.2.2 Military Nuclear Program 141
8.2.3 Future 144
8.3 North Korea (See also Sect. 4.1) 144
8.4 Israel 145
8.4.1 History 145
8.4.2 Present 148
8.4.3 Future 148
8.5 South Africa 149
8.5.1 History 149
8.5.2 Peaceful Nuclear Program 150
8.5.3 Nuclear Weapon Development 151
8.5.4 Twenty-Six Years Later 156
References 157
9 Observations, Conclusions, Perspective 158
9.1 Four Observations 158
9.1.1 Technical “Details” 158
9.1.2 A Prelude to Worrying Nuclear Developments 158
9.1.3 Common Characteristics of Nuclear Weapon Holders 159
9.1.4 Mutual Assistance Between Nuclear Weapon Holders 159
9.2 Three Conclusions 160
9.2.1 Safeguards After the AP 160
9.2.2 Shaking NPT 161
9.2.3 “Double Standards” 163
9.3 Gloomy Perspective—“Tetra-Polar” Balance 165
References 169
10 Correction to: Nuclear Suitors or Would-be Proliferators 171
Correction to: P. F. Ikonomou, Global Nuclear Developments, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-46997-9_5 171
Epilogue—Policy Proposal 172
References 180
Annex I Einstein’s Letter to the US President F. D. Roosevelt—1939 181
Annex II 2005-Nobel Peace Prize’s Political Message 183
Annex III Global Overview of Power Reactors and Nuclear Share 185
Annex IV Nuclear Power Reactors Under Construction 187
Annex V Status of Nuclear Arsenals (Warheads) in 2019 189
Annex VI World Enrichment Capacity—Operational and Planned (Thousand SWU/yr) 190
Annex VII International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) 191
Index 192