Critical Infrastructures: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment in Transportation of Dangerous Goods (eBook)

Preface 7
Acknowledgments 11
Contents 12
1 Introduction 15
Abstract 15
1.1 Critical Infrastructures 15
1.2 Major Themes 17
1.3 Transportation of Hazardous Materials 20
References 21
2 Risk Assessment 24
Abstract 24
2.1 Risk Assessment in Hazmat Transportation 24
2.1.1 The Hot Spots Approach 25
2.1.1.1 Representing Risk in the Hot Spot Method: The Risk Matrix 27
2.1.2 The Statistical Approach 27
2.1.2.1 The Framework 27
2.1.2.2 The Statistical Method 28
2.2 Extension of the Risk Assessment Methodology for Multimodal Transportation 31
2.2.1 The ‘Hot Spot’ Method 31
2.2.2 The Statistical Method 32
2.2.3 The Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function as a Risk Expression of the Health Impact 32
References 33
3 Quantitative Probability Assessment of Loc Accident 35
Abstract 35
3.1 The Methodology: Loc Accident Probability Computation 35
3.1.1 Tools and Techniques 37
3.2 Models and Algorithms: Loc Accident Probability in Transportation by Rail 39
3.2.1 Computational Scheme for LOC Accident by Rail 40
3.3 Models and Algorithms: Loc Accident Probability in Transportation By Road 53
3.3.1 Deductively Model the Reality—MLD Development for LOC During Road Transportation 53
3.3.2 Computational Scheme for LOC Accident by Road 55
References 67
4 Loc Consequence Assessment 68
Abstract 68
4.1 Physical to Biological Effects’ Relationship 69
4.2 Fire Consequence Assessment 70
4.2.1 Pool Fire Consequence Assessment 72
4.2.1.1 Inputs 73
4.2.1.2 Risk-Relevant Output 74
4.2.1.3 Computational Steps 74
4.2.1.4 Effects Computation 75
4.2.2 Flare Fire Consequence Assessment 76
4.2.2.1 Saturation Pressure Constants 77
4.2.2.2 Inputs 77
4.2.2.3 Risk-Relevant Output 78
4.2.2.4 Computational Steps 78
4.2.2.5 Effects Computation 79
4.2.3 BLEVE Consequence Assessment 80
4.2.3.1 Input Data 81
4.2.3.2 Risk-Relevant Output 81
4.2.3.3 Computational Steps 81
4.2.3.4 Effects Computation 82
4.3 Explosion Consequence Assessment 83
4.3.1 The Algorithm 83
4.3.1.1 Constants 83
4.3.1.2 Inputs 84
4.3.1.3 Computational Steps 84
4.3.1.4 Lethality Percentage Due to Overpressure 88
4.3.1.5 Lethality Percentage Due to Fragments 90
4.4 Acute Intoxication Consequence Assessment 91
4.4.1 Computing the Risk Radii 92
4.4.2 Computing the Lethality Percentage 95
4.4.3 An Algorithm for Acute Intoxication Assessment 97
4.4.3.1 Inputs 98
4.4.3.2 Computational Steps 98
References 100
5 The Vulnerability Issue 102
Abstract 102
5.1 Definitions and Conceptualization 104
5.2 Methodological Aspects in Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment in Transport Systems 108
5.2.1 Transportation System Definition 109
5.2.2 Defining the System by Indicators 109
5.2.3 The Vulnerability Assessment of Transportation System 111
References 114
6 Consensus-Driven Models for QVA in Transportation Corridors 117
Abstract 117
6.1 The Index Method 117
6.1.1 Designing the System 118
6.1.2 The Risk-Management Capability Index and Weights Computation 118
6.1.2.1 Weights Computation 119
6.1.2.2 Computing the Level Weights 119
6.1.2.3 Computing the Final Weights 120
6.1.2.4 Assessment Results: The Vulnerability Index 121
6.1.3 The Index Method: Transportation Corridor Vulnerability Assessment 122
6.1.3.1 System Description by Indicators and Classification Structure 123
6.1.3.2 Transportation System Vulnerability Assessment 126
6.2 The Relevance Matrices Method 130
6.2.1 The Method 131
6.2.2 Transportation Corridor Vulnerability Assessment Model with the Relevance Matrices Method 133
References 152
7 Physical Analogies-Based Model for Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment of Transportation Corridors 154
Abstract 154
7.1 Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment Method Modeling Cooperative Phenomena in Multi-component Systems
7.1.1 System Description by Indicators 156
7.1.2 The Control Variables 157
7.1.3 System Constituents—System State Space 157
7.1.4 Vulnerability Basins—The Instability Region 163
7.1.5 The Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment 164
7.2 Applying QVA Model for the Vulnerability Assessment of Transportation Corridors 165
7.2.1 Indicators Selection 165
7.2.2 Computing the Physical Indicators—YUi and YVj 165
7.2.3 Transportation System Vulnerability Assessment 165
References 169
8 An Illustrative Example—The Case for Aarau-Zurich 171
Abstract 171
8.1 Transportation Description 171
8.1.1 Graph Coordinate Axis Limits 171
8.1.2 Transportation Statistics 172
8.2 Representation Maps of the Transportation 173
8.2.1 ‘Aarau-Zurich’ TRANSPORTATION Map Representation 173
8.2.1.1 TRIP ‘S0 Aarau-Zurich 35 t’ 173
8.2.1.2 TRIP ‘S1 Zurich’ 177
8.2.1.3 TRIP ‘S2 Zurich 5 t’ 181
Appendix ATools and Techniques for PRAand RAMs: A Primer 185
Appendix BDesign Guidelines for HazmatTransportation Decision Support Systems 191
Appendix CImplementation Guideline for HazmatTransportation DSS 200
Appendix DArriving at Equation for State of a Systemwith many Bi-stable Entities 212
Index 223