Under the Weather

Evaluates our understanding of the linkages among climate, ecosystems, and infectious disease. This book also examines the potential for using climate forecasts and ecological observations to help predict infectious disease outbreaks, and reviews lessons learned from the use of climate forecasts in other realms of human activity.

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Since the dawn of medical science, people have recognized connections between a change in the weather and the appearance of epidemic disease. With today's technology, some hope that it will be possible to build models for predicting the emergence and spread of many infectious diseases based on climate and weather forecasts. However, separating the effects of climate from other effects presents a tremendous scientific challenge.



Can we use climate and weather forecasts to predict infectious disease outbreaks? Can the field of public health advance from "surveillance and response" to "prediction and prevention?" And perhaps the most important question of all: Can we predict how global warming will affect the emergence and transmission of infectious disease agents around the world?



Under the Weather evaluates our current understanding of the linkages among climate, ecosystems, and infectious disease; it then goes a step further and outlines the research needed to improve our understanding of these linkages. The book also examines the potential for using climate forecasts and ecological observations to help predict infectious disease outbreaks, identifies the necessary components for an epidemic early warning system, and reviews lessons learned from the use of climate forecasts in other realms of human activity.


Table of Contents


Front Matter
Executive Summary
Introduction
Climate and Infectious Diseases: The Past as Prologue
Linkages Between Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Diseases
Climate Influences on Specific Diseases
Analytical Approaches for Studying Climate/Disease Linkages
Temporal and Spatial Scaling: An Ecological Perspective
Towards the Development of Disease Early Warning Systems
Key Findings and Recommendations
Acronyms/Abbreviations
Glossary
References
Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members
Appendix B: Speakers/Presentations at the Committee eetings
Index