A Financial Crisis Manual

Dimitrios D. Thomakos is Professor of Applied Econometrics and Head of the Department of Economics at the University of Peloponnese, Greece, and Senior Fellow and Member of the Scientific Committee at the Rimini Center for Economic Analysis in Italy. Dimitrios holds an MA, MPhil and PhD from the Department of Economics of Columbia University. His research work has appeared in several prestigious international journals in economics and finance such as the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Canadian Journal of Economics, the Review of International Economics, the Journal of Empirical Finance, the International Review of Financial Analysis, the International Journal of Forecasting and others. He has been a guest co-editor for Mathematical & Computer Modelling, an editorial board member of the Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods and now serves at the editorial board of the International Journal of Energy and Statistics. He is also the co-founder of QuantF.com. Dr. Platon Monokroussos is Deputy General Manager and Chief Market Economist at Eurobank Ergasias S.A. He is member of the Scientific Council of the Hellenic Bank Association and member of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (EMAC) of the European Banking Federation. He is also a member of Board of Directors of Eurobank Properties REIC, a public company which manages one of the most important commercial property portfolios in Greece and Eastern Europe. He holds a Professional Qualification Certificate for the provision of investment services (type D) issued by the Bank of Greece. Before joining Eurobank, he held high-level positions in leading financial institutions, including ABN AMRO and Bank of America. Dr. Monokroussos holds a Bachelor's degree in theoretical Mathematics (University of Crete, Greece), Masters Degrees in Economics (Clark University, Worcester, MA USA) and Business Administration (Boston College, Wallace E. Carroll School of Management Boston, MA USA) as well as a Diploma in Business and Corporate Leadership from Harvard Business Publishing. He received his Ph.D. from the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (doctorate thesis on foreign exchange microstructure). Professor Kostas I. Nikolopoulos DEng, MEng (???), P2P, ITP (Kellogg-Northwestern) is the Director of forLAB, the forecasting laboratory (www.forLAB.eu) in Bangor Business School. He is an expert in Time Series Analysis & Forecasting, Forecasting Support Systems and forecasting the impact of Special Events. Professor Nikolopoulos received his Engineering Doctorate in 2002 and his Diploma in Electrical and Computer Engineering (MEng) in 1997, both from National Technical University of Athens (???). He has worked in the past for the University of Manchester and other prestigious institutions in U.K. and Greece, and now holds the Chair in Decision Sciences in Bangor Business School and is the College Director of Research (Assistant Dean/Research) for the College ofBusiness, Law, Education and Social Sciences in Prifysgol Bangor University. His work has appeared in IJF, JoF, EJOR, JORS, Omega, IJPE, IJPR, IMA JMM, JBR, JCIS, IMDS, AE among other journals, and he is an Associate Editor of Oxford IMA Journal of Management Mathematics and Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal. He is co-originator of the Theta forecasting method and the ADIDA temporal aggregation method-improving framework.

Dedications Acknowledgements List of Figures List of Tables Notes on Contributors About the Editors Preface - Introduction: D. Thomakos, P. Monokroussos and K. I. Nikolopoulos Part One The INDUSTRY perspective 1. A Retrospective on the Great Recession: Causes, Effects and Prospects: I. Lazos 2. European Public Finances through the Crisis: F. Montagne 3. ECB Monetary Policy and the Euro during the Crisis: A. Vamvakidis 4. The Repression of the Financial Markets: R. Sueppel 5. Chasing the Tail of Financial Stability: M. Kasumovich Part Two The case of GREECE 6. An empirical study on Greece's current account determinants before and after the outbreak of the global financial crisis: P. Monokroussos and D. Thomakos 7. Greek fiscal multipliers revisited: Government spending cuts vs. tax hikes and the role of public investment expenditure: P. Monokroussos and D. Thomakos 8. The Challenge of Restoring Debt Sustainability in a Deep Economic Recession: The case of Greece: P. Monokroussos 9. The case for a new reprofilling of Greek public debt and why a relaxation of the bailout program's future fiscal targets may prove to be a self-financing policy shift: Dr Fokion Karavias and P. Monokroussos 10. External Debt Crisis: Does it Matter if Global Financial Markets Are Complete?: A. Anagnostopoulos and G. Siourounis 11. Foreign Direct Investment, innovation and brain drain in Greece: turning the problem to opportunity: C. Kottaridi Part Three CRISIS ECONOMICS and the Road Ahead 12. Globalized Finance in Disarray: S. Chakravarty 13. The Elephant in the Euro Room: A. Patelis 14. From the euro-crisis to a new European economic architecture: M. Arghyrou