Climate Change Biology (eBook)

Lee Hannah (Autor)

eBook Download: PDF | EPUB

2014 | 2. Auflage
470 Seiten
Elsevier Science (Verlag)
978-0-12-799923-4 (ISBN)

Climate Change Biology, 2e examines the evolving discipline of human-induced climate change and the resulting shifts in the distributions of species and the timing of biological events. The text focuses on understanding the impacts of human-induced climate change by drawing on multiple lines of evidence, including paleoecology, modeling, and current observation. This revised and updated second edition emphasizes impacts of human adaptation to climate change on nature and greater emphasis on natural processes and cycles and specific elements. With four new chapters, an increased emphasis on tools for critical thinking, and a new glossary and acronym appendix, Climate Change Biology, 2e is the ideal overview of this field. - Expanded treatment of processes and cycles - Additional exercises and elements to encourage independent and critical thinking - Increased on-line supplements including mapping activities and suggested labs and classroom activities.

Lee Hannah is Senior Researcher in Climate Change Biology at the Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science and Oceans at Conservation International (CI). Tracking with his interest in the role of climate change in conservation planning and methods of corridor design, he heads CI's efforts to develop conservation responses to climate change. He works collaboratively with the Bren School at UC Santa Barbara to model climate impacts on species in California, and with the National Botanical Institute in Cape Town, South Africa to model biotic change resulting from global warming in biodiversity hot spots in that region. He has written on the global extent of wilderness and the role of communities in the management of protected areas.

Front
1
Climate Change
4
Copyright 5
Contents 6
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 14
SECTION 1 -
16
Chapter
18
A GREENHOUSE PLANET 20
BOUNDARIES OF LIFE 21
SHIFTING INTERACTIONS 23
CHEMISTRY OF CHANGE 23
LINKAGES BACK TO CLIMATE 24
CLIMATE CHANGE BIOLOGY 25
Chapter 2 - The Climate System and Climate Change 28
THE CLIMATE SYSTEM 28
EVOLUTION OF THE EARTH’S CLIMATE 30
NATURAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE 34
MAJOR FEATURES OF PRESENT CLIMATE 40
STABLE STATES OF THE SYSTEM 43
HUMAN-DRIVEN CHANGE: RISING CO2 45
RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE 52
THE VELOCITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE 55
MODELING THE CLIMATE SYSTEM 56
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS 60
COMMONLY USED GCMS 63
EMISSIONS PATHWAYS 65
GCM OUTPUTS 65
BIOLOGICAL ASSESSMENTS WITH DOWNSCALED DATA 67
FURTHER READING 67
SECTION 2 -

70
Chapter 3 - Species Range Shifts 72
FIRST SIGN OF CHANGE: CORAL BLEACHING 73
FIRST CHANGES ON LAND 77
MOUNTING EVIDENCE OF RANGE SHIFTS 79
PATTERNS WITHIN THE PATTERNS 87
EXTINCTIONS 89
FRESHWATER CHANGES 91
PESTS AND PATHOGENS 93
FURTHER READING 96
Chapter 4 - Phenology: Changes in Timing of Biological Events Due to Climate Change 98
ARRIVAL OF SPRING 102
FRESHWATER SYSTEMS 104
SPRING AHEAD, FALL BEHIND 106
TROPICAL FOREST PHENOLOGY 106
MARINE SYSTEMS 109
MECHANISMS: TEMPERATURE AND PHOTOPERIOD 110
LIFE-CYCLES OF INSECT HERBIVORES 111
TIMING MISMATCHES BETWEEN SPECIES 114
FURTHER READING 117
Chapter 5 - Ecosystem Change 118
TROPICAL ECOSYSTEM CHANGES 118
CLOUD FORESTS 121
TEMPERATE ECOSYSTEM CHANGE 124
HIGH MOUNTAIN ECOSYSTEMS 128
GLACIER AND SNOWPACK-DEPENDENT ECOSYSTEMS 130
POLAR AND MARINE SYSTEMS 133
POLAR FOOD WEBS: CHANGES IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN 137
TROPICAL MARINE SYSTEMS 139
PELAGIC MARINE SYSTEMS 141
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION 143
ECOSYSTEM FEEDBACKS TO CLIMATE SYSTEM 146
FURTHER READING 148
SECTION 3 - Lessons from the past 150
Chapter 6 - Past Terrestrial Response 152
SCOPE OF CHANGE 152
THE EARTH MOVES 153
CLIMATE RUNS THROUGH IT 155
FAST AND FAR: THE RECORD OF THE ICE AGES 160
ICE RACING IN NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE 161
OUT OF LAND: THE SOUTHERN TEMPERATE RESPONSE 164
NORTH MEETS SOUTH 165
RAPID CHANGE: THE YOUNGER DRYAS 168
TROPICAL RESPONSES 171
MILANKOVITCH FORCING IN THE BIOLOGICAL RECORD 174
LESSONS OF PAST CHANGE 175
FURTHER READING 175
Chapter 7 - Past Marine Ecosystem Changes 178
EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE 178
EFFECTS OF SEA-LEVEL CHANGE 181
CHANGES IN OCEAN CIRCULATION 184
CHANGES IN OCEAN CHEMISTRY 186
FURTHER READING 192
Chapter 8 - Past Freshwater Changes 194
LAKES AS WINDOWS TO PAST CLIMATE 195
TYPES OF FRESHWATER ALTERATION WITH CLIMATE 200
FRESHWATER BIOTAS, HABITATS, AND FOOD CHAINS 204
DEEP TIME: PACE OF EVOLUTION AND SPECIES ACCUMULATION 205
RECENT-TIME (TERTIARY AND PLEISTOCENE) RECORDS OF CHANGE 207
FAST FORWARD 208
FURTHER READING 209
Chapter 9 - Extinctions 210
THE FIVE MAJOR MASS EXTINCTIONS 210
CAUSES OF EXTINCTION EVENTS 214
CLIMATE AS THE COMMON FACTOR IN MAJOR EXTINCTIONS 215
IMPACTS AND CLIMATE 215
DOES CLIMATE CHANGE ALWAYS CAUSE EXTINCTION? 217
CLIMATE AND EXTINCTIONS IN DEEP TIME 217
THE PAST 100 MILLION YEARS 219
THE PAST 2 MILLION YEARS: EXTINCTION AT THE DAWN OF THE ICE AGES AND THE PLEISTOCENE EXTINCTIONS 221
THE MISSING ICE AGE EXTINCTIONS 224
PATTERNS IN THE LOSSES 224
FURTHER READING 225
SECTION 4 -
226
Chapter 10 - Insights from Experimentation 228
THEORY 228
LABORATORY AND GREENHOUSE EXPERIMENTS 232
FIELD EXPERIMENTS 240
RESULTS OF WHOLE-VEGETATION EXPERIMENTS 243
RESULTS OF FIELD CO2 EXPERIMENTS 245
FRESHWATER EXPERIMENTS 248
ARCTIC EXPERIMENTS 248
FURTHER READING 250
Chapter 11 - Modeling Species and Ecosystem Response 252
TYPES OF MODELS 254
DYNAMIC GLOBAL VEGETATION MODELS 258
SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS 262
GAP MODELS 268
MODELING AQUATIC SYSTEMS 271
EARTH SYSTEM MODELS 276
FURTHER READING 277
Chapter 12 - Estimating Extinction Risk from Climate Change 278
EVIDENCE FROM THE PAST 281
ESTIMATES FROM SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING 282
SPECIES–AREA RELATIONSHIP 284
A QUESTION OF DISPERSAL 286
THE PROBLEM WITH ENDEMICS 286
CHECKING THE ESTIMATES 288
NOT JUST ABOUT POLAR BEARS ANYMORE 290
ARE A MILLION SPECIES AT RISK? 291
WHY THE FUTURE MAY NOT BE LIKE THE PAST 293
FURTHER READING 294
Chapter 13 - Ecosystem Services 296
FOOD PROVISION—MARINE FISHERIES 296
WATER PROVISIONING 300
CARBON SEQUESTRATION 303
FIRE 305
TOURISM 306
ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION 308
COASTAL PROTECTION 309
WATER SUPPLY 312
FOOD PRODUCTION 313
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION 314
FURTHER READING 315
SECTION 5 -
316
Chapter 14 - Adaptation of Conservation Strategies 318
EARLY CONCEPTS OF PROTECTED AREAS AND CLIMATE CHANGE 319
PROTECTED AREA PLANNING 322
PLANNING FOR PERSISTENCE 327
RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE 328
PROTECTED-AREA MANAGEMENT 330
MARINE PROTECTED AREAS 332
PROTECTED AREAS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 338
FURTHER READING 340
Chapter 15 - Connectivity and Landscape Management 342
AREA-DEMANDING SPECIES 345
Anchor 56 346
MIGRATORY SPECIES 347
SPECIES RANGE SHIFTS 348
PLANNING FOR CONNECTIVITY 350
MANAGING CONNECTIVITY IN HUMAN-DOMINATED LANDSCAPES 353
PLANNING FOR CLIMATE “BLOWBACK” 354
REGIONAL COORDINATION 355
MONITORING 357
FURTHER READING 358
Chapter 16 - Species Management 360
THREATENED SPECIES 360
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THREATENED SPECIES 363
SPECIES THREATENED BY CLIMATE CHANGE 363
ASSESSING SPECIES THREATENED BY CLIMATE CHANGE 363
AN ICONIC EXAMPLE 366
MANAGING SPECIES THREATENED BY CLIMATE CHANGE 368
RESOURCES FOR THE JOB 375
FURTHER READING 376
SECTION 6 -

378
Chapter 17 - International Climate Policy 380
ON CLIMATE CHANGE 380
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE 383
CARBON MARKETS 384
AND DEGRADATION 387
ADAPTATION 389
WHY DOESN’T IT WORK? 391
FURTHER READING 392
Chapter 18 - Mitigation: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Sinks, and Solutions 394
STABILIZING ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS 394
PRACTICAL STEPS FOR THE NEXT 50YEARS 395
ENERGY EFFICIENCY 397
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES 397
NUCLEAR POWER 402
THE END OF OIL 403
CLEAN COAL? 404
TAR SANDS, OIL SHALES AND FRACKING 405
GEOENGINEERING 406
EXTINCTION RISK FROM CLIMATE CHANGE SOLUTIONS 408
LAND USE REQUIREMENTS OF ALTERNATE ENERGY 410
SHORT-TERM WEDGES AND LONG-TERM PATHWAYS 416
FURTHER READING 417
Chapter 19 - Carbon Sinks and Sources 418
THE CARBON CYCLE 418
SLOW CARBON 419
FAST CARBON 420
OCEAN CARBON CYCLE 421
TERRESTRIAL CARBON CYCLE 424
HUMAN INFLUENCE ON THE CARBON CYCLE 426
RECENT TRENDS IN TERRESTRIAL SOURCES AND SINKS 428
CARBON CYCLE AND CARBON SEQUESTRATION 430
GETTING CO2 BACK 435
FURTHER READING 437
Chapter 20 - Assessing Risks, Designing Solutions 438
IMPACTS, RISKS, AND ADAPTATION 438
THE ASSESSMENT PROCESS 438
DOMAIN AND GRAIN 439
BIOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT 440
STAND-ALONE BIOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT 442
DESIGN OF ADAPTATION SOLUTIONS 443
TWO EXAMPLES OF ADAPTATION SOLUTIONS 444
AND DO IT AGAIN 446
References 448
Index 460

Chapter 1

A New Discipline

Climate Change Biology

Abstract

The sun warms the Earth. Gases in the atmosphere capture heat and reradiate it back to the surface. This “greenhouse effect” transforms the Earth from a cold, rocky ball into a living planet. But how does this system operate, and how are human actions affecting this natural process?

Keywords

Carbon cycle; Carbon dioxide (CO2); Coral reefs; Earth’s atmosphere; Greenhouse effect; Ocean chemistry; Pinyon–juniper “community”

These questions have been largely ignored in biology and conservation in the past. The recognition that human change is occurring in the climate—and that natural change is inevitable—is leading to a revolution in biology. A new discipline is emerging, melding well-established fields of inquiry such as paleoecology with new insights from observations of unfolding upheaval in species and ecosystems. The scope of the discipline encompasses all of the effects of human greenhouse gas pollution on the natural world. This is climate change biology.

The changes are too big to ignore. Extinctions have begun, and many more are projected. Species are moving to track their preferred climates, the timing of biological events cued to climate is shifting, and new plant and animal associations are emerging, whereas well-established ones are disappearing. Biologists are seeing change everywhere, and nowhere is change more important than in dealing with climate.

Climate change biology is the study of the impact of climate change on natural systems, with emphasis on understanding the future impacts of human-induced climate change. To understand future change, the discipline draws on lessons from the past, currently observed changes, biological theory, and modeling. It encompasses many existing disciplines, including paleoecology, global change biology, biogeography, and climatology. Climate change biology uses insights from all of these disciplines but not all of the results of these disciplines. For instance, paleoecological data that help us understand how biological systems will respond to anthropogenic climate change are a major part of climate change biology, but many aspects of paleoecology may remain outside the realm of the new discipline. Climatology is relevant to climate change biology but most climate studies fall outside the discipline. However, when climatologists conduct studies specifically to unlock biological mysteries, climatology is part of climate change biology. The practitioners of climate change biology therefore come from a broad range of biological and physical sciences, and their inclusion within the discipline is defined by their interest in understanding biological responses to climate change, particularly future changes due to human influences on the Earth’s atmosphere (Figure 1.1).

Spotlight: Birth of a Discipline

Rob Peters and Thomas E. Lovejoy founded climate change biology when both were with the World Wildlife Fund in the late 1980s. Lovejoy famously met with Steve Schneider (then director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research) and said, “I want to talk about how what you do affects what I do.” Lovejoy describes the ensuing discussion as an “aha” moment for both scientists. Peters took the “aha” idea and turned it into the discipline of conservation in the face of climate change. A great poker and street hockey player, Peters was no stranger to getting to the spot before others. His papers with various coauthors in the late 1980s and early 1990s outlined much of early thinking on the subject. They were the first in their field. The classic 1985 article, “The Greenhouse Effect and Nature Reserves,” framed the issues to be confronted succinctly (Peters and Darling, 1985). It even opened with a passage from Shakespeare (Macbeth): “I look’d toward Birnam, and anon, methought, the wood began to move.”

Peters, R.L., Darling, J.D.S., 1985. The greenhouse effect and nature reserves. BioScience 35, 707–717.

Figure 1.1 Earth’s atmosphere.

The atmosphere of the Earth is an amazingly thin layer of gases. At its thickest, the atmosphere is approximately 100 km deep, which is less than 1/100 of the Earth’s diameter (12,700 km). Viewed from this perspective, the atmosphere appears as a thin, vulnerable shroud around the Earth. Alterations to this gossamer protective layer may have major consequences for life. Source: Reproduced with permission from NASA.

Climate change biology explores the interactions of biological systems with the climate system, as well as the biological dynamics driven by climate change. The interactions are not small. The climate system is in many respects driven by biology. Atmosphere and climate are themselves the products of eons of biological processes. Biological by-products are the very gases that capture the warmth of the sun and transform the planet. Everything from the color of plants across vast areas to the cycling of moisture between plants and the atmosphere help determine climate. The cycle is completed as the interactions of climate with biology determine where plants and animals can live, in turn influencing where, how far, and how fast they will move.

A Greenhouse Planet

Water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) are the two most abundant greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. They are both transparent to visible light arriving from the sun, but each traps heat coming from the Earth’s surface (Figure 1.2). Both occur naturally, but CO2 is also released by human burning of fossil fuels. The increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from human pollution is projected to cause major alterations to the Earth’s climate system and global mean temperature in the twenty-first century.

Evidence spanning millions of years, and particularly from the past million years, suggests that greenhouse gases are a critical component of the Earth’s climate system. Warm periods have been repeatedly associated with high levels of atmospheric CO2 during the ice ages of the past 2 million years. Deeper in time, periods of high CO2 concentrations or methane release have been associated with global warm periods.

Greenhouse Effect

Some gases in the Earth’s atmosphere “trap” heat. Sunlight warms the Earth’s surface, which then radiates long-wave radiation. Some of this radiation is absorbed and reemitted by gases such as CO2 and water vapor. Part of the reemitted radiation is directed back at the Earth, resulting in a net redirection of long-wave radiation from space and back to Earth. This warms the lower reaches of the atmosphere, much as glass in a greenhouse traps heat from the sun, and so is known as the greenhouse effect.

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increased more than 30% in the twentieth century. This increase is due primarily to the burning of fossil fuels. Beginning with coal at the outset of the industrial revolution, and transitioning to oil and natural gas as economies advanced, the power for our electricity, industry, and transport has been drawn heavily from fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are rich in carbon, and burning them both releases their stored energy and combines their carbon with oxygen to produce CO2.

Figure 1.2 The greenhouse effect.

Solar radiation reaches the Earth, warming the surface. The surface then radiates long-wave radiation back toward space. Greenhouse gases absorb and reemit some of this long-wave radiation. The net effect is that some radiation that would have escaped to space is reradiated within the atmosphere, causing warming. Source: From Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001.

Rising CO2 levels have direct effects on the growth of plants and on seawater chemistry while indirectly leading to global warming. These direct and indirect effects have profound implications for biological processes and the survival of species.

Boundaries of Life

Every species has climatic and physical tolerances that determine where it can live. Most species also initiate internal processes based on climatic cues. These two factors combine to determine much of the biology of how species interact, including how individual pairs of species share space and react to one another and how multiple-species assemblages come to exist together.

For example, coral reefs grow where the combination of water temperature and seawater chemistry falls within a relatively narrow range of suitable conditions. Water temperature must be above approximately 10 °C for reef-building, shallow-water corals to survive. At between 28 and 31 °C, depending on region and species, corals suffer high mortality. These same corals require dissolved calcium carbonate levels of 0.3Ω(Ω measures the degree of saturation of seawater with aragonite, a form of calcium carbonate) in order to produce their calcium carbonate skeletons and build reefs. Coral reefs are therefore found only in warm waters, primarily in the...

Erscheint lt. Verlag	17.11.2014
Sprache	englisch
Themenwelt	Naturwissenschaften ► Biologie ► Ökologie / Naturschutz
	Naturwissenschaften ► Biologie ► Zoologie
	Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Meteorologie / Klimatologie
	Naturwissenschaften ► Physik / Astronomie ► Angewandte Physik
	Technik
ISBN-10	0-12-799923-X / 012799923X
ISBN-13	978-0-12-799923-4 / 9780127999234

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