Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters -  Paolo Paron

Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters (eBook)

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2014 | 1. Auflage
312 Seiten
Elsevier Science (Verlag)
978-0-12-396470-0 (ISBN)
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Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters provides an integrated look at major atmospheric disasters that have had and continue to have major implications for many of the world's people, such as floods and droughts. . This volume takes a geoscientific approach to the topic, while also covering current thinking about some directly relevant social scientific issues that can affect lives and property. Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters also contains new insights about how climate change affects hazardous processes. For the first time, information on the many diverse topics relevant to professionals is aggregated into one volume. - Contains contributions from experts in the field selected by a world-renowned editorial board - Cutting-edge discussion of natural hazard topics that affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of humans worldwide - Numerous full-color tables, GIS maps, diagrams, illustrations, and photographs of hazardous processes in action

Paolo is a Senior Lecturer at IHE Delft in the River Basin Development research group. He has more than 15 years of combined professional experience in the Humanitarian, Professional and Academic world in the areas of mapping, geology and geomorphology and remote sensing. In the last years he has been developing methods and tools for the use of UAV in hydraulic research including flood mapping as well as in ecology and soil erosion. He has worked and lived extensively in Eastern and Southern Africa with shorter assignments in Asia and East Asia, and at present he is based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters provides an integrated look at major atmospheric disasters that have had and continue to have major implications for many of the world's people, such as floods and droughts. . This volume takes a geoscientific approach to the topic, while also covering current thinking about some directly relevant social scientific issues that can affect lives and property. Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters also contains new insights about how climate change affects hazardous processes. For the first time, information on the many diverse topics relevant to professionals is aggregated into one volume. - Contains contributions from experts in the field selected by a world-renowned editorial board- Cutting-edge discussion of natural hazard topics that affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of humans worldwide- Numerous full-color tables, GIS maps, diagrams, illustrations, and photographs of hazardous processes in action

Front 
1 
Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, 
4 
Copyright 5
Contents 6
Contributors 10
Editorial 
12 
Foreword 16
Section 1 Floods and Storms 18
Chapter 1 - Flood Processes and Hazards 20
1.1 INTRODUCTION 20
1.2 FLOOD TYPES AND THEIR PROCESSES 21
1.3 FLOOD HAZARD PROBABILITIES 36
1.4 FLOODS IN A CHANGING WORLD 39
REFERENCES 44
Chapter 2 - Measuring and Mapping Flood Processes 52
2.1 INTRODUCTION 52
2.2 FLOODPLAIN TOPOGRAPHY 54
2.3 WATER AREA AND EXTENT MONITORING 58
2.4 MONITORING RIVER HYDRAULIC PARAMETERS 61
2.5 HYDRAULIC MODELS 68
2.6 INTEGRATION OF HYDRAULIC MODELS AND REMOTE SENSING DATA 73
2.7 CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK 76
ACKNOWLEDGMENT 77
REFERENCES 77
Chapter 3 - Palaeoflood Hydrology: Reconstructing Rare Events and Extreme Flood Discharges 82
3.1 INTRODUCTION 82
3.2 PALAEOFLOOD APPROACHES AND METHODOLOGY 84
3.3 GEOLOGICAL AND BOTANICAL PALAEOFLOOD DATA 87
3.4 DATING PALAEOFLOOD EVIDENCE 95
3.5 PALAEOFLOOD DISCHARGE ESTIMATION 98
3.6 FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS USING PALAEOFLOOD DATA 100
3.7 ESTIMATION OF PALAEOFLOOD VOLUME 101
3.8 APPLIED PALAEOFLOOD HYDROLOGY 102
3.9 CONCLUSIONS 108
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 109
REFERENCES 109
Chapter 4 - Global and Low-Cost Topographic Data to Support Flood Studies 122
4.1 INTRODUCTION 122
4.2 TEST SITE AND DATA AVAILABILITY 126
4.3 INUNDATION MODELING 128
4.4 THE EFFECT OF TOPOGRAPHY RESOLUTION ON INUNDATION MODELING 129
4.5 UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WITHIN A GENERALIZED LIKELIHOOD UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION FRAMEWORK 130
4.6 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 131
4.7 CONCLUSIONS 136
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 137
REFERENCES 137
Chapter 5 - Vulnerability and Exposure in Developed and Developing Countries: Large-Scale Assessments 142
5.1 INTRODUCTION 142
5.2 VULNERABILITY: DEFINITIONS AND COMPLEXITY 144
5.3 APPROACHES TO VULNERABILITY 149
5.4 METHODOLOGY 156
5.5 COPING WITH FLOOD VULNERABILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 159
5.6 COPING WITH FLOOD VULNERABILITY IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 165
5.7 DISCUSSIONS AND PERSPECTIVES 170
ANNEX 1. PO'S DELTA COMMUNES ABBREVIATIONS 172
ANNEX 2. AWARENESS AND PREPAREDNESS INDICATOR SCALED 175
REFERENCES 176
Chapter 6 - Integrated Risk Assessment of Water-Related Disasters 180
6.1 INTRODUCTION AND STATE-OF-THE-ART OF RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS OF WATER-RELATED PROCESSES 181
6.2 METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT 184
6.3 THE EVALUATION OF BENEFITS OF RISK REDUCTION 191
6.4 THE SOCIAL DIMENSION: ADAPTIVE AND COPING CAPACITIES FOR RISK PREVENTION 192
6.5 THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE KR-FWK 193
6.6 A DEMONSTRATION OF SERRA APPLIED TO FLOOD RISK IN THE CITY OF DHAKA 199
6.7 FINAL REMARKS 213
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 214
REFERENCES 214
Chapter 7 - KULTURisk Methodology Application: Ubaye Valley (Barcelonnette, France) 218
7.1 INTRODUCTION 218
7.2 METHODOLOGY 220
7.3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 222
7.4 CONCLUSION 225
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 227
REFERENCES 227
Chapter 8 - Floods and Storms Practical Exercises 230
8.1 INTRODUCTION TO FLOOD MODELING 230
8.2 EXERCISE 1: NUMERICAL FLOOD MODELING IN LISFLOOD-FP 234
8.3 FURTHER EXERCISES 242
8.4 APPENDIX: GOVERNING EQUATIONS FOR LISFLOOD-FP SOLVERS 242
REFERENCES 246
Section 2 Wind, Heat Waves, and Droughts 248
Chapter 9 - Drought Monitoring and Assessment: Remote Sensing and Modeling Approaches for the Famine Early Warning Systems ... 250
9.1 INTRODUCTION 251
9.2 RAINFALL-BASED DROUGHT MONITORING 254
9.3 VEGETATION INDEX-BASED DROUGHT MONITORING 261
9.4 MODEL-DRIVEN DROUGHT INDICATORS 264
9.5 HAZARD OUTLOOK (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT BULLETIN) 271
9.6 VALIDATION OF DROUGHT INDICATORS 273
9.7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 273
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 276
REFERENCES 276
Chapter 10 - Hydrological Modeling for Drought Assessment 280
10.1 INTRODUCTION 280
10.2 DROUGHTS AS A NATURAL HAZARD WORLDWIDE 281
10.3 CHARACTERIZATION OF DROUGHTS: DROUGHT INDICES 282
10.4 SIGNIFICANCE OF HYDROLOGICAL MODELS FOR DROUGHT ASSESSMENT 288
10.5 CASE STUDY: HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT FOR THE LIMPOPO BASIN 289
10.6 CONCLUSIONS 297
REFERENCES 297
Index 300

Chapter 1

Flood Processes and Hazards


Alberto Viglione,  and Magdalena Rogger     Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria

Abstract


Floods are classified into different types depending on where the water comes from and on their generating processes. Several types of floods are described in this chapter, including river floods, flash floods, dam-break floods, ice-jam floods, glacial-lake floods, urban floods, coastal floods, and hurricane-related floods. Examples of each flood type are provided and their dominant processes are discussed. Hydrological flood processes such as runoff generation and routing depend on the type of landscape, soils, geology, vegetation, and channel characteristics. They are driven and modulated by climate through precipitation and temperature. Also evapotranspiration and snow processes play a critical role determining, for example, before-event soil saturation. These processes vary widely around the world and, even at the same location, they vary between events. The chapter reviews methods for estimating the probability and magnitude of floods as a measure of the flood hazard. It is argued that understanding the flood processes for each of the flood types is a prerequisite for estimating the flood hazard reliably. This is particularly important if one expects the landscape or climate characteristics to change in the future.

Keywords


Black swan; Dominant processes; Flood frequency hydrology; Flood types

1.1. Introduction


People have settled close to water bodies (rivers, lakes, and the sea) since the beginning of time and this has been for understandable reasons. Living close to water bodies was economically advantageous. Water bodies have long been the easiest transport corridors and the most important communication routes. Flood plains along rivers and near lakes were also attractive because of the fertility of the land and the easy access to irrigation water. Accessibility to the sea meant accessibility to (at that time) unlimited food availability. For all these reasons, the link between people and water bodies has always been strong and is still today (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013). However, living close to water bodies also involves the risk of flooding. Floods are among the most devastating natural (and sometimes human-produced) threats on Earth (Ohl and Tapsell, 2000). Floods involve inundations, i.e., submerged land from overflowing rivers and lakes when water overtops or breaks levees, from the sea because of high tides, and/or develop in otherwise dry areas due to accumulation of heavy rainfall. The risk at which people are exposed depends on many factors: the magnitude of flood events, how frequently they occur, the susceptibility of the people and their properties to be adversely affected, and their preparedness in the emergency situations caused by floods. In more technical worlds, flood risk is the result of the interactions between the flood hazard (which combines the flood probability and magnitude) and the vulnerability of the people and their properties. In this chapter, we focus on the flood hazard, whereas vulnerability is covered in Chapter 1.5. Both hazard and vulnerability very much depend on the type of flood and the processes determining it. In Section 1.2, floods of different types are discussed: river floods, flash floods, dam-break floods, ice-jam floods, glacial-lake floods, urban floods, coastal floods, and hurricane-related floods. We illustrate their process mechanisms through real world examples. For instance, most flood types are driven and modulated by climate, through precipitation and temperature, and by the landscape, since runoff generation and routing depend on soils, geology, vegetation, channel characteristics, etc. Also evapotranspiration and snow processes play a critical role, e.g., by controlling before-event soil saturation. These processes vary widely around the world and, even at the same location, they vary between events. Flood processes determine the way floods develop, their magnitude, volume, and speed. In Section 1.3, we discuss how the reliability of flood hazard estimation may be increased by understanding the flood generating processes of the different flood types. Finally, in Section 1.4 we discuss how the flood hazard may change in the future and how we can deal with it.

1.2. Flood Types and Their Processes


1.2.1. River Floods


In June 2013 the Upper Danube Basin (i.e., the German–Austrian part of the basin) was struck by a major flood (Blöschl et al., 2013a). The city centre of Passau (at the confluence of the Danube, Inn, and Ilz) experienced flood levels that were similar to the highest recorded flood in 1501, which is considered the “millennium flood” in central Europe (see Figure 1.1). Extraordinary flood discharges were recorded along the Saalach and Tiroler Ache at the Austrian-Bavarian border. The flood discharge of the Danube at Vienna, downstream of Passau, exceeded those observed in the past two centuries, in particular it exceeded the big August 2002 flood, till then referred to as the “century” flood in Austria.
The atmospheric situation of the event was a typical one for floods in the Upper Danube basin. A large-scale stationary atmospheric regime led to the blocking of a number of synoptic systems including the Azores and the Siberian anticyclone in the second half of May 2013. The moisture brought from the north-western Atlantic caused rainfall in the Upper Danube Basin from May 18 to 27. The cyclonic system, with its rotation and spatial extent, collected additional moisture from the Mediterranean, producing what van Bebber (1891) termed “Vb”-system, which caused persistent, heavy precipitation over the northern fringe of the eastern Alps, lasting from May 30 to June 4, 2013. Figure 1.2 shows the spatial pattern of precipitation for a period of seven days (May 29 to June 4, 2013). As indicated in the figure, precipitation was highest along the northern ridge of the Alps in Austria (Tirol, Salzburg, and Upper Austria) and very significant precipitation also occurred further in the north. Precipitation interpolated between the rain gauges based on weather radar exceeded 300 mm during this time period. The event consisted of two main precipitation blocks separated by a few hours of no or lower intensity rain (Blöschl et al., 2013a).

FIGURE 1.1 Flood marks on the Passau city hall. The 2013 flood mark is clearly visible and is significantly higher than the 1501 flood. This is probably due to the effect of waves, since the 2013 and the 1501 floods were of similar magnitudes. From Blöschl et al. (2013b).
Moreover, May 2013 was one of the three wettest months of May in the past 150 years in the Upper Danube Basin. Air temperatures in the first three weeks of May were somewhat lower than the long-term average in the Upper Danube Basin and significant snowfall occurred at the high-elevation stations in the Alps. At the beginning of the event, the soils were wet throughout the Upper Danube Basin, although there was a pronounced north–south gradient with higher soil moisture in the north, and lower soil moisture in the south. Because of the relatively high antecedent precipitation, and therefore soil moisture, the event runoff coefficients were quite large in the Alpine catchments. However, when compared to runoff coefficients of other flood events in the same region, the runoff coefficients were not unusually high (Blöschl et al., 2013a). This is because part of the precipitation fell as snow and remained as snow cover until after the event in the highest parts of the catchment. In the Bavarian Danube catchment, instead, temperatures were above 0 °C in almost the entire catchment. However, because of the highly permeable soils and the large storage capacity in the catchment, only one-fourth of the precipitation contributed to the runoff in spite of the high antecedent soil moisture.

FIGURE 1.2 Total amount of the precipitation event and propagation of the June 2013 flood along the stream network of the Upper Danube Basin. Red circles indicate stream gauges. The scale shown on the bottom right relates to all hydrographs. Redrawn from Blöschl et al. (2013a).
The spatiotemporal rainfall patterns of the 2013 flood, combined with differences in runoff response characteristics between the catchments (Gaál et al., 2012), produced complex patterns of runoff hydrographs within the Upper Danube Basin. Figure 1.2 gives an overview of the evolution of the flood within the basin. At the Bavarian Danube in the northwest of the basin, the flood response was delayed with relatively flat peaks. However, the total volume of the 2013 flood along the Bavarian Danube was exceptionally large because of the high rainfall and very high antecedent soil moisture. The Inn, coming from the Alps, exhibited a much faster response as is always the case with this type of regional floods (Blöschl et al., 2013a). The confluence of the Inn with the Bavarian Danube at Passau resulted in an amplification of the combined shape of the flood wave, significantly higher than in other big flood events in the area, because the flood wave of the Bavarian Danube arrived somewhat earlier than usual with smaller differences in the time lag between the...

Erscheint lt. Verlag 28.10.2014
Sprache englisch
Themenwelt Naturwissenschaften Biologie Ökologie / Naturschutz
Naturwissenschaften Geowissenschaften Hydrologie / Ozeanografie
Naturwissenschaften Geowissenschaften Meteorologie / Klimatologie
Naturwissenschaften Physik / Astronomie Angewandte Physik
Technik
ISBN-10 0-12-396470-9 / 0123964709
ISBN-13 978-0-12-396470-0 / 9780123964700
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