Evidence-Based Climate Science (eBook)

Front Cover 1
Evidence-Based Climate Science 4
Copyright 5
Contents 6
Preface 8
Part I Geologic Perspectives 10
Chapter 1 Geologic Evidence of Recurring Climate Cycles and Their Implications for the Cause of Global Climate Changes—The ... 12
1. Introduction 13
2. Is Global Warming Real? 13
3. Melting Glaciers 17
4. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 24
5. Lessons from Past Global Climate Changes 28
6. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 45
7. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) 48
8. Solar Variability and Climate Change 49
9. Where are We Headed During the Coming Century? 54
References 57
Chapter 2 Evidence for Synchronous Global Climatic Events: Cosmogenic Exposure Ages of Glaciations 62
1. Introduction 62
2. Late Pleistocene Climate Oscillations Recorded by Glaciers 63
3. Conclusions 92
References 93
Part II Temperature Measurements 98
Chapter 3 A Critical Look at Surface Temperature Records 100
1. Introduction 100
2. The Global Data Centers 101
3. The Golden Age of Surface Observation 105
4. Vanishing Stations 107
5. See For Yourself – The Data is a Mess 110
6. Station Dropout was not Totally Random 112
7. Instrument Changes and Siting 115
8. Along Comes ‘Modernization’ 115
9. Adjustments not Made, or Made Badly 119
10. Heat from Population Growth and Land-use Changes 119
11. U.S. Climate Data 120
12. U.S. State Heat Records Suggest Recent Decades are not the Warmest 122
13. Major Changes to USHCN in 2007 123
14. Hadley and NOAA 128
15. Final Adjustments – Homogenization 134
16. Problems with Sea Surface Temperature Measurements 140
17. Long-Term Trends 141
18. Summary 146
References 148
Chapter 4 2010—The Hottest Year on Record? 152
1. Comparisons vs. 1998 155
2. Divergence from Other Data Sources 157
3. What is GISS Doing Wrong? 157
4. Was 2010 a Record Hot Year? 159
5. What Caused the Positive Anomalies in Early 2010? 162
6 Some History About Dr. James Hansen 164
7 Conclusion 165
Part III The Role of Oceans 168
Chapter 5 Relationship of Multidecadal Global Temperatures to Multidecadal Oceanic Oscillations 170
1. Introduction 170
2. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) 171
3. Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) 173
4. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 174
5. Frequency and Strength of ENSO and the PDO 175
6. Correlation of the PDO and Glacial Fluctuations in the Pacific Northwest 179
7. ENSO vs. Temperatures 179
8. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) 180
9. North Atlantic Oscillation, The Arctic Oscillation, and The AMO 181
10. Synchronized Dance of the Teleconnections 183
11. Short-term Warm/Cool Cycles from the Greenland Ice Core 187
12. Where are we Headed During the Coming Century? 188
References 190
Chapter 6 Setting the Frames of Expected Future Sea Level Changes by Exploring Past Geological Sea Level Records 194
1. Introduction 194
2. Sea Level Changes by Year 2100 195
3. Frames of Glacial Eustatic Rise in Sea Level 195
4. Frames of Steric Expansion of the Water Column 198
5. Setting the Frames of Future Sea Level Changes 199
6. Solar Cycles in the Near Future 201
7. The State of Fear 201
8. Conclusions 203
References 204
Chapter 7 The Maldives: A Measure of Sea Level Changes and Sea Level Ethics 206
1. Introduction 206
2. The Maldives Sea Level Project 208
3. Problems 209
4. Field Evidence in the Maldives 213
5. Comparisons 216
6. Conclusions 217
References 218
Chapter 8 Arctic Sea Ice 220
1. Introduction 220
2. Summary 231
Chapter 9 Have Increases in CO2 Contributed to the Recent Large Upswing in Atlantic Basin Major Hurricanes Since 1995? 232
1. Introduction 233
2. Causes of the Upswing in Atlantic Basin Major Hurricane Activity Since 1995 234
3. Why CO2 Increases are not Responsible for Atlantic SST and Hurricane Activity Increases 236
4. Contrast of Theories of Hurricane Activity Changes 240
5. Discussion 242
6. IPCC-IV'S Tropical Cyclone Mis-statements 245
7. Special Characteristics of the Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Basin 245
8. Variations in Strength of the THC 249
9. Storage of West-Atlantic Sub-tropical Salinity 253
10. Summary 255
References 257
Part IV Solar Activity 260
Chapter 10 Solar Changes and the Climate 262
1. Introduction 262
2. Earth–Sun Connection 263
3. Summary 282
References 283
Chapter 11 The Current Solar Minimum and Its Consequences for Climate 286
1. Introduction 286
2. The Current Minimum 287
3. Summary 296
References 296
Chapter 12 Total Solar Irradiance Satellite Composites and their Phenomenological Effect on Climate 298
1. Introduction 298
2. SMM/ACRIM1 vs. NIMBUS7/ERB 302
3. The ACRIM-GAP: 15/07/1989–03/10/1991 306
4. SMM/ACRIM1 vs. UARS/ACRIM2 313
5. UARS/ACRIM2 vs. ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 314
6. Three updated ACRIM TSI Composites 315
7. TSI Proxy Secular Reconstructions 317
8. Phenomenological solar signature on climate 319
9. Conclusion 321
References 323
Chapter 13 Global Brightening and Climate Sensitivity 326
1. Introduction 326
2. The Data 326
3. Analysis and Results 328
4. Discussion 332
5. A Note on the Planck Parameter 334
6. Conclusions 335
Acknowledgments 336
Appendix: Reanalysis of Satellite Radiative-flux Data 336
References 340
Chapter 14 The Relationship of Sunspot Cycles to Gravitational Stresses on the Sun: Results of a Proof-of-Concept Simulation 344
1. Introduction 344
2. Approach 346
3. Method 349
4. Result 351
5. Discussion 356
6. Conclusion 358
References 358
Part V Modeling 360
Chapter 15 A Simple KISS Model toExamine the RelationshipBetween Atmospheric CO2Concentration, and Ocean & Land Surface Temperatures,Taking into ConsiderationSolar and Volcanic Activity,As Well As Fossil Fuel Use
1. Introduction 363
2. Modeling Principles 363
3. Scientific Basis for the Model 364
4. Model Estimation and Results 369
5. Conclusions and Ramifications 389
References 391
Index 392