Climate Change Research (eBook)

Cover 1
Contents - Volume A. 4
Contents - Volume B 10
Part I: THEME "IMPACTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE" 20
Chapter 1. Assessment report on NRP subtheme "Effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems" 22
Short papers within NRP subtheme "Effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems" 52
Climate change and agricultural productivity 54
Integrating the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems 60
Selection of bio-indicators to assess the possible landscape ecological effects of climate change 64
Phenological reactions of Dutch tree species to climate change described by a simulation model of the annual cycle 70
The role of organic soil profiles on water availability in forests: sensitivity analysis 74
Carbon allocation in mature grass (Lolium perenne) under elevated CO2 at two soil nitrogen levels 80
Wheat and maize production in Hungary under doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration 86
Effects of climate change on yield potential of wheat and maize crops in the European Union 90
Mediterranean soilscapes and climatic change. An overview 96
A mathematical model for predicting the impact of climate changes on Mediterranean plant landscapes 102
Vulnerability of Mediterranean ecosystems to climatic change, study of soil degradation under different climatological conditions in an altitudinal transect in the south east of Spain 108
The impact of climatic change and land use on the hydrological response of Mediterranean soils a study along a climatological gradient in Crete (Greece)
Climate change and malaria risk 116
Will malaria return to Europe under the greenhouse effect? 120
Chapter 2. Assessment report on NRP subtheme ''Impact of climate change on the Wadden Sea" 126
Discussion on the NRP assessment report "Impact of climate change on the Wadden Sea" 164
Short papers within NRP subtheme "Impact of climate change on the Wadden Sea" 166
Salt marshes and sea level rise: marsh dynamics in relation to accretion processes and accretion enhancement techniques 168
The effect of sea level rise on a migratory wader 172
Winter temperature and reproductive success in shell-fish in the Dutch Wadden Sea 176
Chapter 3. Assessment report on NRP subtheme "Impact of climate change on regional hydrology" 180
Short papers within NRP subtheme "Impact of climate change on regional hydrology" 254
Impact of climate change on the discharge of the river Rhine 256
The effects of an increase in CO2 on the hydrology of forests 264
The effect of temperature change on soil structure stability 268
The impact of climate change on the sedimentation rates on the embanked floodplains in the Netherlands 276
The impact of climate change on suspended sediment transport by the river Rhine 282
Effect of sea-level rise and climate change on groundwater salinity and agro-hydrology in a low coastal region of the Netherlands 288
Impacts of changes in climate change and socio-economic factors on land use in the Rhine basin: projections for decade 2040-49 292
Chapter 4. Assessment report on NRP subtheme "Effects of enhanced UV-B radiation " 296
Short papers within NRP subtheme "Effects of enhanced UV-B radiation" 336
Effects of enhanced UV-B radiation on structure and function of phytoplankton communities 338
Impact of enhanced solar UV-B radiation on plants from terrestrial ecosystems 342
UVB can affect the immune system resulting in decreased resistance to infections and tumors 350
Part II: THEME "SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS" 356
Chapter 5. Assessment report on NRP subtheme "Energy demand and supply options to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions" 358
Discussion on the NRP asssessment report "Energy demand and supply options to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions" 400
Short papers within NRP subtheme "Energy demand and supply options to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions" 404
Long-term energy and materials strategies for CO2 reduction 406
Energy conservation and investment behaviour of firms 420
Long term energy efficiency improvement 426
Energy efficiency improvement in industrial sectors: international comparisons 432
Carbon dioxide removal studies in The Netherlands 438
Storage of carbon dioxide in aquifers in the Netherlands 444
Waste reduction and the structure of the Dutch waste sector 450
Institutional barriers to waste reduction in Finland 454
Energy production on farms - sustainability of energy crops 458
A simple method to estimate regional yields of biomass crops 462
Energy accounting on farms 468
Space for biomass 472
Conversion routes for energy crops integrating agricultural and environmental opportunities in Europe
Forests and wood consumption on the carbon balance 482
Potential of controlled anaerobic wastewater treatment in order to reduce the global emissions of methane and carbon dioxide 488
Chapter 6. Assessment report on "NRP's" subtheme "Mobility and motorised transport in relation to sustainable development" 492
Discussion on the NRP assessment reports "Mobility and motorised transport in relation to sustainable development" and "Culture, consumption and lifestyles" 510
Short papers within NRP subtheme "Mobility and motorised transport in relation to sustainable development" 516
Private car mobility. Problem awareness, willingness to change, and policy evaluation: a national interview study among Dutch car users 518
A behavioral analysis of private car use by households 522
Differences among car user groups regarding CO2 emissions and sensitivity to policy measures 526
Choosing a means of transportation: two inquiries into situational and personal determinants of moving behaviour 530
Changing attitudes and behaviour by means of providing information a study on private car use
Energy and environmental issues as choosing elements for selecting options in the transportation sector aimed at reducing CO2 emissions: on application to the Italian case 538
Comparative analysis of options for sustainable transport and traffic systems in the 21st century 542
Chapter 7. Assessment report on NRP subtheme "Culture, consumption and lifestyles in relation to sustainable development" 546
Short papers within NRP subtheme "Culture, consumption and lifestyles in relation to sustainable development" 572
Reduction of CO2 emissions by lifestyle changes 574
Life styles and domestic energy consumption: a pilot study 580
SCAN: SCenario ANalysis: Analysis of the social significance, acceptability and feasibility of long-term low energy/low CO2 scenarios for The Netherlands 586
Toward a morality of increasing moderation 592
Climate Change, living environment and ways of life 596
Welfare and its relation to the environmental question 600
Chapter 8. Assessment report on NRP subtheme "National instruments for climate change policy" 606
Discussion on the NRP assessment report "International and national instruments for climate change policy" 616
Short papers within NRP subtheme "National instruments for climate change policy" 618
Tradeable carbon permits 620
The feasibility of ecological taxation 624
Socio-economic aspects of the greenhouse effect: climate fund 628
Socio-economic aspects of the greenhouse effect: applied general equilibrium model 634
Chapter 9. Assessment report on NRP subtheme "International instruments for climate change policy" 638
Short papers within NRP subtheme "International instruments for climate change policy" 660
Tropical forest policies for the global climate 662
International policies to address the greenhouse effect: encouraging developing country participation in global greenhouse control strategies 668
Practical aspects of Joint Implementation 672
Industrial energy efficiency in developing countries present situation and scope for new initiatives
Macroeconomic analysis of CO2 emission limits for China 690
Part III: THEME "INTEGRATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH" 694
Chapter 10. Assessment report on NRP subtheme "Risk analysis" 696
Discussion on the NRP asssessment report "Risk analysis" 708
Short papers within NRP subtheme "Risk analysis" 710
Integrated assessment of the global warming problem, a decision- analytical approach 712
Clouds, aerosols and biogeochemical cycles: risks of non-linear climate change 716
Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme weather events. Preliminary results 722
Probability of climatic change identification of key questions
The role of fear and threat in communicating risk scenarios and the need for actions: effect of fear on information processing 732
Short papers within NRP subtheme "Integrated modelling" 738
Overview of IMAGE 2.0: An integrated model of climate change and the global environment 740
Uncertainty management in integrated modelling, the IMAGE case 746
Linking IMAGE 2.0 and WORLD SCAN 752
Modelling land use dynamics by integrating biophysical and human dimensions (CLUE) Costa Rica 1973-1984 758
Short papers on climate change research in Europe presented during the entire conference 762
The Finish research programme on climate change SILMU 764
Climate change research in Bulgaria 768
ANNEXES 770
1. List of participants 772
2. Acronyms 806
3. Units 808