Future Climates of the World (eBook)

Front Cover 1
Future climates of the world: a modelling perspective 4
Copyright Page 5
Contents 14
Chapter 1. Climates of the Future 28
Why consider the climate of the future? 28
Focus of this book 28
Relationship to other reviews of the future climate 29
Earth's climate and its future 31
Modelling the Earth's climate 34
Climates of the future 41
References 44
Part I: Geological Perspective on Future Climate 46
Chapter 2. Modelling the Response of the Climate System to Astronomical Forcing 48
Introduction 48
Climates of the past 49
Astronomical theory of paleoclimates 52
"Snapshot" simulations of past climate 59
Simulations of temporal evolution of climate 66
Transient response of a 2-D climate model to astronomical forcing 71
Future climates under astronomical forcing 82
References 86
Chapter 3. Warmer Worlds: Global Change Lessons from Earth History 98
Introduction 98
Cretaceous warmth 99
An alternative warm climate: an Eocene example 108
Discussion of implications for future climate and conclusions 116
References 117
Chapter 4. Catastrophe: Impact of Comets and Asteroids 122
Introduction 122
Theoretical estimates of impact-induced climate change 124
Evidence of environmental perturbations at the K/T' boundary 134
Other geological boundaries: climatic changes and possible role of impacts 140
Impact-induced volcanism? 154
Climatic changes caused by flood-basalt eruptions 156
Future climates? 162
References 163
Part II: Observations of Climate and Future Projection 176
Chapter 5. Observations from the Surface: Projection from Traditional Meteorological Observations 178
Introduction 178
Development of instrumentation and meteorological observational networks 178
What surface observations tell us about the last 140 years 183
The last 140 years in a longer term context 195
Upper air data during the last 40 years 196
Explanations of the instrumental temperature record 199
Projections to the future 206
Acknowledgements 209
References 209
Chapter 6. Climatic Variability on Decadal to Century Time-Scales 218
Introduction 218
Climate variations in the past 1,000 years 220
Possible causes of climatic variability on decadal to century time-scales 226
Climates of the future 257
References 260
Chapter 7. Satellite Systems and Models for Future Climate Change 272
Introduction 272
Global radiation balance and the role of clouds 279
Precipitation 287
Atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic fields 289
Land surface properties for climate models 291
Oceans and cryosphere 298
Satellites and future climate 301
Acknowledgements 302
References 302
Chapter 8. Dynamics of Future Climates 308
Introduction 308
Diagnostic methods 309
Large-scale dynamics 315
Regional-scale interactions 327
Future climate dynamics 333
References 337
Part III: Human Factors Affecting Future Climate 342
Chapter 9. The Greenhouse Effect of Trace Gases 344
Introduction 344
Uniformly mixed gases 349
Atmospheric ozone 361
Future climates 369
Acknowledgement 371
References 371
Chapter 10. Climatic Effects of Changing Atmospheric Aerosol Levels 374
Introduction 374
Aerosol sources 376
Climatic effects 385
Evidence for the climatic impact of anthropogenic aerosols 406
The effect of atmospheric aerosols on future climate scenarios 411
References 416
Chapter 11. Ozone Depletion 426
Introduction 426
Ozone photochemistry 427
Ozone in the polar regions 433
Ozone observations 435
Ozone depletion 439
Ozone changes and the climate system 445
Increases in ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion 447
Policy strategies to protect the ozone layer 452
Issues for research pertaining to future climates 455
Conclusion 456
Acknowledgements 456
References 457
Chapter 12. Human Effects on Climate Through the Large-Scale Impacts of Land-Use Change 460
Introduction 460
Human-induced land-use change 465
Land-cover change influences on climate 473
Land-cover changes and global climate 473
Regional-scale impacts of land-cover change on climate 483
Future land-use change and future climate 491
Acknowledgements 495
References 495
Chapter 13. Urban Climates 504
Introduction 504
Urban climate processes 512
Current and future urban climates 524
Future urban climates 532
References 536
Part IV: Geophysiology and Future Climates 542
Chapter 14. Future Climate Surprises 544
Introduction 544
Changes in climate and ocean circulation in the past 545
Atmospheric C02 variations in the past 551
Causes of glacial-to-interglacial change in atmospheric C02 552
Role of ocean conveyor circulation 555
Future surprises 558
Acknowledgement 560
References 560
Chapter 15. The Geophysiology of Climate 564
Introduction 564
Climate regulation 565
Geophysiology of paleoclimate 568
Geophysiology of future climates 576
Acknowledgements 578
References 578
References Index 582
Geographical Index 630
Subject Index 632