Biometeorology for Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change (eBook)

Foreword 6
Contents 8
Biometeorology for Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change 10
1.1 Introduction 10
1.2 Adaptation to Climate and Climate Change 11
1.3 Organization of This Volume 13
Section I Research Frontiers 15
Adaptation and Thermal Environment 16
2.1 Introduction 17
2.2 Thermoregulation, Human Heat Budget, and Thermal Assessment Procedures 19
2.3 The Near Future: The Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI 23
2.4 Use for Adaptation (Selected Examples) 26
2.5 Conclusions 35
References 36
Heat / Health Warning Systems: Development, Implementation, and Intervention Activities 40
3.1 The Evaluation of Thermal Stress 41
3.2 Considerations in Evaluating Thermal Stress 43
3.3 The Determination of Thresholds 45
3.4 Creation of a Warning System 47
3.5 Intervention Measures and Public Outreach 48
3.6 Effectiveness of Intervention Activities 51
3.7 Methods to Check Effectiveness of Urban Heat Programs 52
3.8 Conclusions 53
References 54
Malaria Early Warning Systems 56
4.1 Introduction 57
4.2 Malaria 58
4.3 Components of an Early Warning System 60
4.4 Developments in Malaria Early Warning Systems 63
4.5 Projections of the Future Incidence and Geographic Range of Malaria 73
4.6 Discussion 77
References 78
Pollen, Allergies and Adaptation 82
5.1 Introduction 83
5.2 Human Allergy, Sensitivity to Natural Pollen and Pre- emptive Measures Based on Forecasting of Pollen Atmospheric Concentrations 86
5.3 Pollination Ecology 90
5.4 Impact of Long-Range Pollen Transport to Allergenic Episodes: Forecasting Possibilities 97
5.5 Perspectives of Changing Climate: Most-Evident and Probable Impact and Means of Adaptation 102
References 106
Plant Biometeorology and Adaptation 114
6.1 Plant Responses to Weather Conditions 114
6.2 Preliminary Considerations of Climate Change and Variability 116
6.3 Impact of Climate 119
6.4 Main Adaptive Options Available 125
6.5 Key Research Challenges 130
References 131
Response of Domestic Animals to Climate Challenges 137
7.1 Introduction 138
7.2 Impact of Climate Change on Animal Agriculture 138
7.3 Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Animal Agriculture 141
7.4 Impact of Climate Change on Animal Health 142
7.5 Animal Adaptation 145
7.6 Animal Management Adaptations 157
7.7 Conclusions 163
References 164
Adaptation in the Tourism and Recreation Sector 177
8.1 Introduction 177
8.2 Climate Adaptation Portfolio for the Tourism-Recreation Sector 179
8.3 Conclusion 195
References 197
Adaptation and Water Resources 201
9.1 Introduction 202
9.2 Adaptation Options in the Water Sector 202
9.3 Alternative Approaches and Research Frontiers 207
9.4 Conclusion 214
References 214
Psychological Perspectives on Adaptation to Weather and Climate 217
10.1 Psychological Conceptions of Adaptation 219
10.2 Protection Motivation Theory: An Organizing Framework 221
10.3 Conclusions 233
References 234
Section II Perspectives 239
Human Adaptation within a Paradigm of Climatic Determinism and Change 240
11.1 Constant Climate Determinism 241
11.2 The Homeothermic Imperative 243
11.3 Human Biological Adaptation: The Thermal Coping Range 249
11.4 Deterministic Disaster: Exceeding the Coping Range 250
11.5 Anthropogenic Climate Change: A Consensus Paradigm 254
11.6 Integration and Adaptation Definition 256
11.7 Towards an Integrated Adaptive Model 260
11.8 Conclusion: Philosophies, Responsibilities and Adaptability 265
References 267
The Status and Prospects for Biometeorology 273
12.1 Introduction 273
12.2 Driving Forces of Impacts Often Interact in Complex Ways 275
12.3 Global Environmental Changes Are Increasing the Complexity of Challenges and Responses 276
12.4 Understanding of the Interactions Between Climatic Factors and Human, Animal, and Plant Systems Can Increase Adaptive Capacity 278
12.5 Effective Adaptation Will Come from Adjustments in Behavior, and Social and Economic Systems 279
12.6 Opportunities for Biometeorology to Contribute to Adaptation 280
References 282
Index 283