Solar Variability and Planetary Climates (eBook)

TABLE OF CONTENTS 7
FOREWORD 12
INTRODUCTION 15
1. Background 15
2. Solar Irradiance 17
3. Observations of Solar Influence on the Atmosphere 18
4. Atmospheric Dynamics and Modelling 19
5. Clouds and Aerosols 20
6. Conclusions 21
References 22
ASSESSING SOLAR VARIABILITY 26
1. Introduction 26
2. A Controversial Issue 27
3. Measuring Solar Variability 28
4. Reconstructing Solar Variability 30
5. Conclusion 32
References 33
SOLAR VARIABILITY OF POSSIBLE RELEVANCE FOR PLANETARY CLIMATES 34
1. Introduction 34
2. Short-Term Total Solar Irradiance Variations 35
3. Short-Term Solar Spectral Irradiance Variations 37
4. Longer-Term Solar Variations 38
5. Solar Variability Over Millenia 43
6. Summary and Outlook 43
Acknowledgements 44
References 44
MEASUREMENT OF TOTAL AND SPECTRAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE 47
1. Introduction 47
2. Measurement of Solar Irradiance 48
3. Today’s Measurement and Prospects for the Future 54
Acknowledgements 57
References 58
SOLAR IRRADIANCE VARIABILITY SINCE 1978 60
1. Introduction 60
2. Radiometric Corrections 62
3. The PMOD Composite 66
4. Comparison with a 3-Component Proxy Model 69
5. Conclusions 71
Acknowledgements 71
References 72
SOLAR VARIABILITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MILLENNIA 73
1. Introduction 73
2. Solar Forcing: Orbital Parameters 75
3. Solar Variability 77
4. Reconstruction of Long-Term Solar Variability 78
5. Solar Variability and Solar Forcing 82
Acknowledgements 84
References 84
SOLAR AND HELIOSPHERIC MODULATION OF GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS 86
1. Introduction 86
2. Transport of Charged Particles in the Heliosphere 88
3. Solar Cycle Variation 93
4. Summary 95
References 96
WHAT DO COSMOGENIC ISOTOPES TELL US ABOUT PAST SOLAR FORCING OF CLIMATE? 99
1. Introduction 99
2. Paleoclimate Evidence for Solar Variability Effects on Climate 101
3. Direct Cosmic-Ray Effects: Clouds and the Global Electric Circuit 103
4. The Connection Between Cosmic Rays and TSI on Centennial Time Scales 106
5. Conclusions 109
Acknowledgements 109
References 110
OBSERVED LONG-TERM VARIATIONS OF SOLAR IRRADIANCE AT THE EARTH’S SURFACE 114
1. Introduction 114
2. Data Compilation and Quality Control 115
3. Results 116
4. The Cause of the Secular Variation 128
Acknowledgements 130
References 130
AEROSOL EFFECTS ON CLOUDS AND CLIMATE 132
1. Introduction 132
2. Conclusions 138
Acknowledgements 138
References 139
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS OF NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOL EFFECTS ON CLOUDS AND CLIMATE 141
1. Introduction 141
2. Natural Versus Anthropogenic Aerosol 142
3. Aerosol Effect on Shallow Cloud Development 145
4. Summary 148
References 148
AEROSOL-CLOUD INTERACTIONS CONTROL OF EARTH RADIATION AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE BUDGETS 150
1. The Major Role of Clouds and Precipitation in the Earth’s Energy Budget 150
2. Quantifying the Relative Magnitudes of the Albedo and Cloud Cover Effects 152
3. The Mechanism by which Aerosols Dominate the Convective Regime of the MBL 152
4. Aerosols Forcing of Deep Convective Clouds 154
5. Conclusions 156
References 157
ATMOSPHERIC ION-INDUCED AEROSOL NUCLEATION 159
1. Introduction 159
2. Measurements 162
3. Kinetic Model of Ion-Induced Nucleation 164
4. Results 164
5. Summary and Outlook 166
References 166
ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOL AND CLOUD CONDENSATION NUCLEI FORMATION: A POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF COSMIC RAYS? 168
1. Introduction 168
2. Atmospheric Ions 171
3. Ion Induced Sulphuric Acid Nucleation 173
4. Atmospheric Sulphuric Acid 176
5. Observations of Large Cluster Ions in the Upper Troposphere 179
6. Aerosol Growth 180
7. Conclusions 182
Acknowledgements 183
References 183
ON THE RESPONSE OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM TO SOLAR FORCING 186
1. Introduction 186
2. The Mechanisms of Climate Forcing and Response: Geographically- Dependent Feedbacks 188
3. Dynamical Contributions 190
4. A Recent Model Experiment 192
5. Concluding Remarks 193
References 194
DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNDERSTANDING SOLAR INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE 197
1. Introduction and Motivation 197
2. Basic Logic of D& A
3. Methods 202
4. Results 204
5. Conclusions 207
References 207
THE CLIMATE RESPONSE TO THE ASTRONOMICAL FORCING 210
1. Calculating Orbital Parameters 210
2. Insolation 213
3. Challenges Posed by Quaternary Glaciations 215
4. The LLN Model to Study Ice Volume Variations 216
5. The Future of Palæoclimate Modelling 218
Key to symbols 219
References 220
REGIONAL RESPONSE OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM TO SOLAR FORCING: THE ROLE OF THE OCEAN 224
1. Introduction 224
2. Thermodynamical Processes 226
3. Transport of Temperature Anomalies by the Ocean 227
4. Changes in Ocean Currents 228
5. Conclusions 230
Acknowledgements 231
References 231
DISCUSSION OF THE SOLAR UV/PLANETARYWAVE MECHANISM 233
1. Introduction 233
2. A Little Bit of History 234
3. Progress on the Solar UV/PlanetaryWave Mechanism 236
4. Some Closing Remarks 239
References 241
SOLAR VARIATION AND STRATOSPHERIC RESPONSE 243
1. Introduction 243
2. Data and Methods 244
3. Variability in the Stratosphere 244
4. Influences of the 11-Year Sunspot Cycle on the Stratosphere 246
5. The QBO – Solar Cycle Relationship Throughout the Year 251
Acknowledgements 254
References 255
SIGNATURE OF THE 11-YEAR CYCLE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE 257
1. Introduction 257
2. Our Observational Results 258
3. Comparison with Other Datasets 261
4. Comparison with a Mechanistic Model 263
5. Conclusions 267
Acknowledgements 267
References 268
THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERIC OZONE RESPONSE TO THE 11-YEAR SOLAR CYCLE 269
1. Introduction 269
2. Extraction of the 11-Year Solar Signal from Observational Data Sets 271
3. Observed and Modeled Solar Signal in Total Ozone 274
4. Vertically-Resolved Observed and Modeled Solar Signal 275
5. Discussion 276
Acknowledgements 279
References 279
INFLUENCE OF THE SOLAR CYCLE ON THE GENERAL CIRCULATION OF THE STRATOSPHERE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE 283
1. Introduction 283
2. Interannual Variations of Dynamical Structure 284
3. Systematic Changes Coherent with Solar Activity 287
4. Origin of the Solar Correlation 291
5. Closing 296
Acknowledgements 298
References 298
MULTIDECADAL SIGNAL OF SOLAR VARIABILITY IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DURING THE 20TH CENTURY 300
1. Introduction 300
2. Data and Methods 302
3. Results 305
4. Discussion 308
5. Conclusions 309
Acknowledgements 310
References 310
THE ROLE OF DYNAMICS IN SOLAR FORCING 313
1. Introduction 313
2. Downward Transmission of the Solar Signal 314
3. ExtratropicalWinter 316
4. Tropical Summer 317
5. Discussion and Concluding Remarks 321
Acknowledgements 322
References 322
SOLAR INFLUENCES ON DYNAMICAL COUPLING BETWEEN THE STRATOSPHERE AND TROPOSPHERE 325
1. Introduction 325
2. Response of Tropospheric ZonalWind to Solar Variability 326
3. Impact of Stratospheric Heating on the Troposphere of a Simplified GCM 327
4. Investigation of Mechanisms Using an Ensemble of Model Spin-ups 334
5. Conclusions 336
References 337
THE RESPONSE OF THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE TO SOLAR CYCLE FORCING IN THE HAMBURG MODEL OF THE NEUTRAL AND IONIZED ATMOSPHERE 339
1. Introduction 339
2. Model Description and Simulation Setup 340
3. The Zonal Mean Atmospheric Response to Solar Variability 341
4. The Zonal Structure of the Temperature Response 345
5. Discussion 347
Acknowledgements 348
References 348
A POSSIBLE TRANSFER MECHANISM FOR THE 11-YEAR SOLAR CYCLE TO THE LOWER STRATOSPHERE 351
1. Introduction 351
2. The Solar Cycle Signal in ERA-40 Analysis 353
3. Mechanistic Modelling 356
4. General Circulation Modelling 360
5. Discussion 362
References 363
RECENT SPACE DATA 365
1. Introduction 365
2. Impact of Solar Proton Events on Atmospheric Composition 366
3. New Generation Atmospheric Chemistry Space Instruments 367
4. New Developments in Stratospheric Chemistry and Dynamics 373
Acknowledgements 373
Reference 373
SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS OF MIDDLE ATMOSPHERIC IMPACTS BY SOLAR PROTON EVENTS IN SOLAR CYCLE 23 374
1. Introduction 374
2. Solar Proton Flux and Production of HOx and NOy 376
3. Satellite Measurements of NOy Constituent Changes from SPEs 377
4. Satellite Measurements of ClO and HOCl Constituents Change from SPEs 378
5. Satellite Measurements of Ozone Changes from SPEs 379
6. Model Predictions of SPE Influences 379
7. Conclusions 381
Acknowledgements 382
References 382
IMPACT OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ON STRATOSPHERIC OZONE AND NO2 OBSERVED BY GOMOS/ ENVISAT 385
1. Introduction 385
2. Instrument 386
3. Data Processing 387
4. October 2003 Solar Proton Event 388
5. AustralWinter 2003 389
6. Conclusion 393
Acknowledgements 393
References 393
THE STRATOSPHERIC AND MESOSPHERIC NOy IN THE 2002– 2004 POLAR WINTERS AS MEASURED BY MIPAS/ ENVISAT 395
1. Introduction 395
2. MIPAS Data 397
3. Variability in NO2 398
4. Variability in HNO3 403
5. Discussion and Conclusions 405
Acknowledgements 406
References 407
EARLY DATA FROM AURA AND CONTINUITY FROM UARS AND TOMS 409
1. Introduction 409
2. Science Objectives of the Aura Mission 411
3. Spacecraft and Instrument Descriptions 414
4. Summary 421
References 421
WHAT DO WE KNOWABOUT THE CLIMATE OF TERRESTRIAL PLANETS? 423
SOLAR VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE IMPACT ON TERRESTRIAL PLANETS 427
1. Introduction 427
2. The Earth 428
3. Climate on Venus 431
4. Mars 433
5. Conclusions 435
Acknowledgements 435
References 435
CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON VENUS AND TITAN 437
1. Introduction 437
2. The Climate on Venus 439
3. Climate Change on Titan 444
4. Summary and Conclusions 446
References 447
THE ORBITAL FORCING OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON MARS 448
1. Introduction 448
2. Today’s MarsWater Cycle 449
3. Mars and Its Shaking Orbit. . . 451
4. Precession Changes 453
5. MarsWater Cycle at High Obliquity 456
6. From High to Low Obliquity 459
7. Conclusion 461
Acknowledgements 461
References 462