Changing Climates, Earth Systems and Society (eBook)

Foreword 5
Preface 8
Contents 10
Contributors 12
Reviewers 15
Introduction 16
Setting the Scene: How Do We Get to a Fitting Future? 18
Introduction 18
Climate Change 19
Climate Impacts on Societies 19
Climate Models 20
This Book 21
References 21
Impacts of Climate Change on Terrestrial Ecosystems and Adaptation Measures for Natural Resource Management 22
Introduction 22
Observed Impacts 24
Observed Changes in Climate 24
Observed Impacts on Vegetation 24
Observed Impacts on Fauna 27
Observed Impacts on Global Biogeochemistry 27
Projected Impacts 28
Projected Changes in Climate and Uncertainties 28
Projected Impacts on Vegetation 29
Projected Impacts on Fauna 31
Projected Impacts on Global Biogeochemistry 31
Adaptation 32
Types of Adaptation 32
Evolutionary Species Adaptation 32
Species-Specific Natural Resource Management Adaptation 32
Landscape-Scale Natural Resource Management Adaptation 33
References 34
Fire in the Earth System 38
Introduction 38
Observations of Wildfire Regimes 39
Contemporary Fire Patterns 39
Historical Records of Fire 42
Paleofires 42
Controls of Fire 45
People and Fire 47
Fire and Vegetation Dynamics 48
Potential Feedbacks to Climate 49
Carbon Cycle Feedbacks 49
Atmospheric Chemistry Feedbacks 50
Impacts of Soot 51
Costs 52
Future Fire Regimes 54
Mitigation and Adaptation: Can We Manage Future Fire 56
Conclusions 58
References 58
Vanishing Polar Ice Sheets 66
Polar Ice Sheets Drivers and Recorders of the Global Climate System 67
The Polar-Tropical Power Struggle 67
Antarctica 67
Greenland 68
The Deep Time History of Polar Ice Sheets 69
Continents in Motion 69
Gauging Past Temperatures and CO 2 Levels 70
Green Antarctica 73
Icy Antarctica -- Big Dynamic Ice Sheets 75
EAIS Freezes -- WAIS Stays Dynamic 77
Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheets Take Over 79
From Wobbles to Cycles 79
Swings of the Past 1 Million Years 80
Stories from Tiny Bubbles 81
The Polar See-Saw 83
Modern Rise of Greenhouse Gases 84
Feeling the Heat 84
Polar Bears Adrift 85
Antarctica Loses Chill 87
Southern Ocean Warming 88
Ice Shelf Collapse 90
Pace Picking Up 91
Bracing for the Future It Is Our Choice 94
More Information 95
References 96
Climate and Peatlands 101
Introduction 101
Peatlands as Archives of Past Climate Variability 102
Chronologies of Wetlands 102
Determination of Peat Humification 103
Peat Macrofossils 104
Testate Amoebae 106
Biomarker Compounds and Stable Isotope Ratios as Indicators of Environmental Change in Peatlands 109
Biomarkers 109
Environmental Stable Isotopes 109
Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotopes 109
Carbon Isotopes 110
Sand Grain and Dust Influx in Peat Bogs as Proxies of Past Circulation Strength 110
Sand Grains in Peat Deposits 110
Dust Particles in Peat Bogs 111
Tracing the Sources of Dust Input 111
Reconstructions of Past Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics 112
Strengths and Weaknesses 113
Stomatal Records from Subfossil Leaves as Proxies of Plants' Responses to Past Atmospheric CO2 Variations 113
Experimental Settings to Study Stomatal Frequency Responses 114
Methods of Assessing Stomatal Frequency 115
Ice Core and Stomatal Based Reconstructions of Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations 115
Signal or Noise: Validation of Stomatal-Based CO2 Reconstructions? 116
Impacts of CO2 Changes on Plants and Ecosystems 118
Climate Variability Reconstructed from Peat Bogs 119
Impact of Climate Change on Peatlands and Potential Feedback Mechanisms on Climate 119
Palsa Mires in a Changing Climate 119
Dating of Permafrost Phases in Palsa Mires 120
Ecosystem Protected Permafrost in Palsa Mires 121
Carbon Cycling in Relation to Degradation of Permafrost in Palsa Mires 121
Current and Future Development of Palsa Mires 123
Active Layer and Permafrost Temperatures 123
Experimental Snow Depth Manipulation 124
Modelling Future Palsa Distribution 124
Impact of Climate Change on Regenerating Cutover Bogs: The Future Does Not Look Bright 125
Modelling Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) 126
Concluding Remarks 127
References 128
Climate and Lacustrine Ecosystems 138
Introduction 138
Quantitative Temperature Reconstructions 140
Stable Carbon and Oxygen Isotopes of Biological Materials from Lacustrine Archives as Proxies for Phytoplankton Primary Production, Nutrient Conditions and Water Temperature 141
Quantitative Climate Reconstructions 145
Late Glacial 146
The Holocene 148
The Last Millennium 149
Recent Past Decades 151
Biodiversity 151
The Future 152
Cyanobacteria 153
Changes Through Time 153
The Last Glacial 153
The Holocene 153
The Last Millennium 154
Recent Decades 154
Modeling Future Changes 156
Eutrophication 157
Changes Through Time 157
The Last Glacial Maximum 157
The Holocene 158
The Last Millennium 158
Last Decades 158
Future Changes 158
Oxygen Availability 158
Changes Through Time 159
Long-Temporal Scale 159
The Holocene 159
The Last Millennium 159
Last Decades 159
Future Changes 159
Lake Level Changes 159
The Late Glacial 160
Holocene Lake Level Trends 161
The Last Millennium 162
Last Decades 163
Future Changes 163
UV Penetration in Lakes 163
Changes Through Time 164
Late Glacial 164
The Holocene 164
The Last Millenium 165
Last Decades 165
Future Changes 165
Conclusions 165
References 166
Rivers 176
Introduction 176
Why Fossil Insects Are a Cost Efficient Tool to Analyse Past River Changes 177
Chironomid and Coleopteran Remains as Efficient Palaeoecological Tools 177
Chironomids 177
Coleoptera 178
Climate Reconstructions 179
Pleistocene Sedimentary Sequences: Last Glacial and Late Glacial Periods 179
The Holocene 180
Historical Period (Anthopocene): Local Impacts of Human Activities on River Waterbodies 182
Evidence for Human Impact at Neolithic on the Alluvial Forests 184
Implications for the Future 187
References 188
Climate Change and Desertification with Special Reference to the Cases in China 191
Introduction 191
Desertification in the Past 193
Future Trend of Desertification 198
Interactions Between Climate Change and Desertification 199
Conclusions 199
References 200
Climate Change, Societal Transitions and Changing Infectious Disease Burdens 202
Introduction 202
Faecal-Oral Infectious Diseases 204
Vector-Borne Diseases 206
Conclusion 211
References 211
Don't We All Want Good Weather and Cheap Food? 213
Introduction 213
Food Security -- A Human Right Since 1948 213
Changes in Demand Drivers to What We Want 214
Population Growth 215
Access to Food 216
Markets and Distribution 217
Changes in Supply Can We Get It? 220
Climate Change 220
Land Use Change 222
Technological Fix 223
Concluding Remarks 224
Find Out More About... 225
References 226
Building Capacity to Cope with Climate Change in the Least Developed Countries 228
Introduction 228
Responding to the Challenges of Climate Change and Development: The CLACC Programme 230
Box 1 CLACC programme aims 231
The CLACC Fellowship Programme 231
Attending Key Meetings 232
Strengthening NAPAs 232
Research 232
Regional Workshops 232
Outreach Activities 233
Climate Change and Urban Development in Low- and Middle-Income Countries 233
Managing and Evaluating CLACC 235
Relevance 236
Effectiveness 236
Impact 237
Efficiency 238
Sustainability 238
What Next for CLACC? 239
Lessons Learned for Capacity-Building Programmes Elsewhere 239
References 240
Climate Change Mitigation Policy: An Overview of Opportunities and Challenges 242
Introduction 242
Climate Change Mitigation Options 242
Economic Case for Climate Change Mitigation 243
Implementation of Climate Policy Measures 245
Critique of Current Policy Approaches 247
New Economic Thinking for Climate Change Mitigation 249
Towards Achieving Global Climate Change Mitigation 250
References 251
Index 253