Rise and Fall of the Carbon Civilisation (eBook)

Patrick Moriarty is presently an Adjunct Senior Research Fellow in the Department of Design at Monash University, Australia. For more than three decades he has researched urban transport and urban land-use planning, with emphasis on equity and ecological sustainability issues. More recently, he has become interested in the climate change implications of different fuels/energy sources for both transport and electricity generation. This research is not only future-focussed and interdisciplinary, but also considers problems such as oil depletion and climate change in a global context. For six years in the 1970s, he taught Civil Engineering at Dar es Salaam Institute of Technology in Tanzania, and carried out field research on low-cost housing.Damon Honnery has been involved in energy related research for more than 25 years. He currently leads the energy research group in the laboratory for Turbulence Research in Aerospace and Combustion in the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Monash University, Australia. His major research activities focus on the development and performance of alternative liquid fuels for transport. These activities extend into the broader areas of renewable energy systems and their potential to replace traditional energy sources and mitigate the effects of global warming. Although his focus is primarily technical, he also has a keen interest in policy and policy development, particularly as it relates to energy use and carbon emissions.

Acknowledgments 5
Contents 6
Abbreviations 10
Chapter 1 - The Problems We Face 13
1.1 Introduction 13
1.2 Assessment of Technology Is Often Over-optimistic 14
1.3 An Earth Systems Science Approach Is Needed 16
1.4 Uncertainty About the Future Is Increasing 17
1.5 Equity Issues Are Central in a Finite World 19
1.6 Energy Is Vital for Economies 20
1.7 Time to Make the Needed Changes Is Limited 21
1.8 Proposed Solutions Can Often Make Matters Worse 22
1.9 A New Approach to Economics Is Needed 23
References 24
Chapter 2 - Global Climate Change 26
2.1 Introduction 26
2.2 The Science of Global Warming 27
2.2.1 The Science Basics 27
2.2.2 Mathematical Models and the Temperature Record 30
2.2.3 Greenhouse Gases and Their Anthropogenic Sources 32
2.2.4 Learning from the Past 35
2.2.5 The Polar Regions Are Critical 37
2.3 What Impacts Can We Expect? 38
2.4 What Should We Do? 40
2.4.1 Mitigation 40
2.4.2 Adaptation 42
2.5 Climate Change, the Public and Policy-making 43
2.6 Closing Comments 45
References 45
Chapter 3 - Earth’s Resources Are Finite 48
3.1 Introduction 48
3.2 Earth’s Energy Flows 49
3.3 Fossil Fuels Availability 51
3.4 Mineral Resource Availability 55
3.5 Humans in the Biosphere 59
3.5.1 World Population Growth and Food and Water Availability 59
3.5.2 Declining Ecosystem Service Provision 63
3.5.3 Declining Species Diversity 65
3.6 Living Sustainably in the Anthropocene Epoch 66
References 66
Chapter 4 - Uncertainty in Global Environmental and Resource Problems 70
4.1 Introduction 70
4.2 Uncertainty, Prediction and Climate 71
4.2.1 Uncertainty and Prediction: General Considerations 72
4.2.2 Uncertainty in Climate Prediction 73
4.2.3 Effects of Climate Uncertainty 75
4.3 Uncertainty in Resource Estimates and Availability 76
4.4 Responses to Uncertainty 78
4.4.1 The Future Is Determined: An IIASA Approach 78
4.4.2 Expert Solicitation and Delphi Analysis 80
4.4.3 Scenario Analysis 81
4.4.4 The Precautionary Principle 82
4.5 Responding to a New, More Uncertain, Future 83
References 86
Chapter 5 - Renewable Energy: Too Little, Too Late? 89
5.1 Introduction 89
5.2 Biomass Energy 90
5.3 Hydropower 93
5.4 Geothermal Energy 94
5.5 Wind Energy 96
5.6 Solar Energy 100
5.7 Ocean Energy 103
5.8 Comparison of RE Sources 105
5.9 Renewable Energy in the Future 107
References 108
Chapter 6 - Nuclear Energy: The Ultimate Technological Fix? 112
6.1 Introduction 112
6.2 Nuclear Energy: History and Forecasts 113
6.3 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle 115
6.4 Reactor Design 118
6.5 Difficulties with Existing Nuclear Power Programs 120
6.5.1 Uranium Resources Are Limited 121
6.5.2 Low Level Radiation 122
6.5.3 Nuclear Accidents and Reactor Safety 123
6.5.4 Natural Hazards 124
6.5.5 Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Sabotage 125
6.6 Nuclear Power: New Technology for the Long-term? 126
6.6.1 Breeder Reactors 126
6.6.2 Fusion Reactors 128
6.7 An Uncertain Nuclear Future 130
References 131
Chapter 7 - Engineering for Greater Energy Efficiency 134
7.1 Introduction 134
7.2 Defining Efficiency and Its Limits 135
7.3 Transport 137
7.4 Buildings and Their Equipment 142
7.5 Energy Conversion 145
7.6 Obstacles to Energy Savings from Energy Efficiency 146
7.7 Energy Efficiency in a Wider Context 149
References 150
Chapter 8 - Getting Rid of Atmospheric Carbon: Sequestration and Air Capture 153
8.1 Introduction 153
8.2 Carbon Sequestration in Soils and Forests 154
8.3 Carbon Sequestration by Ocean Fertilisation 156
8.4 Carbon Capture from Large Power Plants 157
8.5 Air Capture 160
8.6 Geological Carbon Sequestration 162
8.7 Carbon Sequestration in the Real World 164
References 167
Chapter 9 - Great and Desperate Measures: Geo-engineering 169
9.1 Introduction 169
9.2 Global Albedo Decreases 170
9.2.1 Stratospheric Aerosol Placement 171
9.2.2 Other Approaches 172
9.3 Regional Albedo Decreases 173
9.4 Unwanted Impacts of Geoengineering 176
9.4.1 Unwanted Climate-related Impacts 176
9.4.2 Ocean Acidification 178
9.5 The Ethics and Politics of Geoengineering 179
9.6 Geoengineering: Weighing the Costs and Benefits 182
References 184
Chapter 10 - The New Economy 186
10.1 Introduction 186
10.2 The Global Economy and Energy: Past and Present 189
10.3 What’s Wrong with the Old Economy? 192
10.4 The Human Needs Approach 194
10.5 Human Settlements Case Study 196
10.5.1 Is the World Future Urban? 196
10.5.2 Transport in the Transition and Long-term 198
10.5.3 Dwellings 204
10.6 Toward a Carbon Neutral Civilisation 205
References 208
Chapter 11 - Conclusions 211
11.1 Introduction 211
11.2 A Brief Review of the Main Themes 211
11.3 What if We Continue Our Present Path? (A Look at a World 4 ºC Hotter) 214
11.4 A Just and Ecologically Sustainable Future 216
References 219
Index 220