Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change (eBook)

Yassine Charabi is Assistant Professor at the Department of Geography at Sultan Qaboos University, Oman. Her main research interests are in applied climatology and meteorology. She is the author more than 20 scientific publications including the book Elements de Climatologie Urbaine: cas de la ville de Sfax (2006, Centre de Publication Universitaire, Tunisie). Salim Al-Hatrushi is Assistant Professor at the Department of Geography at Sultan Qaboos University, Oman. His research focuses on coastal processes and geomorphology. Yassine Charabi and Salim Al-Hatrushi were in the scientific organizing committee of the First International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, co-sponsored by The World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Acknowledgments 5
Preface 6
Yassine Charabi 7
A Climatology of Intense Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean Over the Past Three Decades (1980–2008) 14
Introduction 14
Data and Methodology 14
The Interannual and Intraseaonal Activity of the Intense NIO Cyclones 15
Summary 17
References 18
Tropical Cyclones in a Hieararchy of Climate Models of Increasing Resolution 19
Introduction 19
Data and Methodology 19
Results 21
Summary 23
Modeling Climate Change: Perspective and Applications in the Context of Bangladesh 25
Introduction 25
Physiography of Bangladesh 26
Biophysical 26
Social 26
Economic 26
Key Environmental Stresses 27
Land and Soil 27
Water 27
Forestry and Biodiversity 27
Natural Disasters of Bangladesh 28
Floods in Bangladesh 28
Cyclones in Bangladesh 28
Droughts 29
River Erosion 29
Effect of Climate Change 29
Climate Change Models with Application in Bangladesh 30
Conclusion 33
References 33
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Over China 34
Toward Improved Projection of the Future Tropical Cyclone Changes 38
Introduction 38
Projection of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity 38
IPCC Conclusions and Remaining Issues 40
Tropical Cyclogenesis Process 41
Conclusions 41
References 44
Global Warming and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific 45
Introduction 45
Variations in TC Activity 45
Annual TC Numbers 45
Annual Number of Intense TCs 46
Summary 50
Variations in Tracks and Landfall Locations 50
Interannual Variations 50
Interdecadal Variations 51
Summary 53
Summary and Discussion 53
References 54
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: An Indian Ocean Perspective 55
Introduction 55
Tropical Cyclone Intensities 55
Tropical Cyclone Frequencies 56
Conclusions 57
References 57
Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Indian Ocean 58
Introduction 58
Results and Discussion 59
Trends in the Frequency of Stronger TCs (Maximum Sustained Wind [MSW] 96 knots and Above) 59
Simulation Experiments 60
Simulation of Intensity 60
References 61
Generating Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Databases for Input to Modeling of Extreme Winds, Waves, and Storm Surges 63
Introduction 63
Track and Pressure Model, SynCyc 64
Simulation of Synthetic Ensemble 67
References 69
Numerical Simulation of the Genesis of Cyclone Nargis Using a Global Cloud-System Resolving Model, NICAM 71
Introduction 71
Methodology 72
Simulation Results 72
Discussion 75
Summary 77
References 78
Simulation of the North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones Using the Regional Environment Simulator: Application to Cyclone Nargis 79
Introduction 79
Climatic Factors Affecting the Tropical Storms in the NIO 80
RES’s Cyclone Surge Simulation System 83
Storm Surge Computations 85
References 88
Simulation of Track and Intensity of Gonu and Sidr with WRF-NMM Modeling System 89
Introduction 89
Model Description 90
Numerical Experiments and Data Used 90
Systems Descriptions 91
Results and Discussion 93
Conclusion 93
References 95
Monitoring and Prediction of Cyclonic Disturbances Over North Indian Ocean by Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, New 97
Introduction 97
Intraseasonal and Interannual Variation 99
Cyclone Warning Procedure of RSMC, New Delhi 99
Observational System 99
Surface Observatories 101
Upper Air Observatories 101
Cyclone Detection Radar 101
Satellite Observation 102
Analysis 103
Prediction Systems in Operational Use 103
Products Generated by RSMC, New Delhi 105
Cyclone Warning Dissemination System 106
Problems and Perspective of Existing Early Warning System 106
Conclusions 106
References 107
Evaluation of the WRF and Quasi-Lagrangian Model (QLM) for Cyclone Track Prediction Over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea 108
Introduction 108
Data and Methodology 109
Forecast Experiment 109
Case 1: Super Cyclone “GONU” Over Arabian Sea During 01–07 June, 2007 109
Synoptic Situation 109
Model Forecast 110
QLM Forecast 110
WRF Forecast 111
Case 2: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “SIDR,” Bay of Bengal During 11–16 November 2007 112
Synoptic Situation 112
Model Forecast 113
QLM Forecast 113
WRF Forecast 113
Track Forecast Errors 114
Concluding Remarks 116
References 117
Simulation of Tropical Cyclones Over Indian Seas: Data Impact Study Using WRF-Var Assimilation System 118
Introduction 118
Numerical Experiments and Data Used 119
Results 119
Impact of Model Simulation 120
Storm Track, and Its VDEs 120
Statistical Verification 120
Diagnosis of Simulation 123
Summary 126
References 127
Impact of Rain-Affected SSM/I Data Assimilation on the Analyses and Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones, and Study of Flow-Dependen 128
Introduction 128
Data and Methodology 129
Discussion and Results 130
Statistical Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones for Bangladesh 133
Introduction 133
Tropical Cyclone Forecasting 135
Is There a Trend in Cyclonic Activity over Bangladesh? 136
Data Selection and Source 138
Statistical Modeling 139
Conclusion 141
References 142
THORPEX and Its Application for Nargis by Ensemble Prediction 144
THORPEX 144
JMA Weekly Ensemble Prediction of Nargis 145
Summary 145
Cyclone Gonu: The Most Intense Tropical Cyclone on Record in the Arabian Sea 150
Introduction 150
Historical Tropical Cyclones 151
Assessment of Digital “Best Track” Data (1945–2003) 152
Assessment of India Meteorological Department Cyclone Data 153
Cyclone Gonu 2007 154
Simulation of Cyclones 155
Conclusion 156
References 157
Real-Time Prediction of SIDR Cyclone Over Bay of Bengal Using High-Resolution Mesoscale Models 159
Introduction 159
Description of the Models 159
Description of the “SIDR” Cyclone 161
Description of the Data and Model Experiments 161
Results 161
References 167
Performance Evaluation of DGMANs NWP Models During Gonu 168
Introduction 168
Case Study Configuration 168
Initial Data Analysis 169
Track Evaluation 171
Wind Intensity Evaluation 171
Rainfall Evaluation 174
Conclusion 175
References 175
Capabilities of Using Remote Sensing and GIS for Tropical Cyclones Forecasting, Monitoring, and Damage Assessment 176
Introduction 176
The Need for Warning Systems for Tropical Cyclones 177
Capabilities of GIS and Remote Sensing for Tropical Cyclones Forecasting 177
Capabilities of GIS and Remote Sensing for Tropical Cyclones Monitoring 178
Capabilities of GIS and Remote Sensing for Tropical Cyclones Damage Assessment 180
Conclusions 184
References 184
On Developing a Tropical Cyclone Archive and Climatology for the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans 187
Introduction 187
Data 188
Climatology 189
Trends 192
Concluding Remarks 193
References 194
Improving the Australian Tropical Cyclone Database: Extension of the GMS Satellite Digital Image Archive 196
Introduction 196
The GMS Satellite 197
The Reception, Distribution, and Display Method 197
From Photo-Negative to AREA Format 199
Retrieving Calibration Information 199
Navigating the Images 199
Known Issues and Problems 202
Conclusion 202
References 203
Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Based on Historic Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea 204
Introduction 204
Methodology 205
Storm Surge Model Description 205
Hurricane Wind Model Description 206
Grid Development 207
Hypothetical Storm Tracks and Parameter Selection 208
Results and Discussion 208
Conclusions 210
References 211
The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Project: Overview of Methods and Indian Ocean Statistics 212
Introduction 212
Data 213
Methods 213
Indian Ocean Statistics 214
Summary 217
References 218
Remote Sensing Imagery Assessment of Areas Severely Affected by Cyclone Gonu in Muscat, Sultanate of Oman 219
Introduction 219
Study Area 220
Methodology 221
Results 222
Conclusion 225
References 227
Urban Sprawl and City Vulnerability: Where Does Muscat Stand? 229
Introduction 229
Study Area 231
Methodology 232
Data Analysis 233
Mapping 233
Results 233
The Physical Constraints 233
A Context of Growth 234
From Growth to Sprawl Scar 236
Discussion 238
Recommendations 238
References 239
Flood Studies in Oman and the Difficulties in Using Rainfall-Runoff Analysis 240
Introduction 240
Hydrological Analysis 241
Rainfall Analysis 241
Runoff Analysis 242
Flood Guideline Manual 246
Conclusions 246
References 247
Cyclone Gonu Storm Surge in the Gulf of Oman 249
Introduction 249
Cyclone Gonu 250
Post-Cyclone Field Observations 251
Coastal Flooding 251
Wadi Flooding 252
Comparison with Indian Ocean Tsunami 254
Numerical Storm Surge Modeling 255
Conclusions 256
References 256
How the National Forecasting Centre in Oman Dealt with Tropical Cyclone Gonu 258
Introduction 258
History of Tropical Cyclones that Affected Omani Coasts 259
Tropical Cyclone Gonu (02A) 260
Track 260
Storm History 260
Preparations 261
Observations 262
Coordination with the National Committee for Civil Defence (NCCD) 262
Coordination with Press and Media 265
Lessons Learned and Future Directions 265
The Need to Strengthen the Coordination with NCCD and the Need for Better Organization on How to Handle the Various Press and 265
The Need to Re-Organize the Organization Structure and Increase the Number of Staff and Provide Necessary Training 266
The Need to Upgrade the Current Tools Used to Observe and Forecast Weather in ONFC 266
Increase Public Awareness 267
Broadcasting in Several Languages 267
Conclusion 267
References 268
Cyclone Disaster Management: A Case Study of MODES Experience with Cyclone Gonu 269
Introduction 269
Background on MODES 270
Definitions and Terminologies 270
The MODES Experience 271
Preparedness Phase 271
Response Phase 273
Recovery Phase 273
Water 273
Roads 274
Lessons Learnt 275
Recommendations 276
Conclusions 277
References 277
The Impact of Cyclone Gonu on Selected Coral Rich Areas of the Gulf of Oman Including Indications of Recovery at the Daymanyiat 279
Introduction 279
Data 280
Results and Discussion 282
References 283
Cyclone Nargis Storm Surge Flooding in Myanmar’s Ayeyarwady River Delta 284
Introduction 284
Cyclone Nargis 286
Post-Cyclone Field Observations 286
Coastal Vulnerability and Land Use 289
Numerical Storm Surge Modeling 290
Conclusions 290
References 291
The First Ever Super Cyclonic Storm “GONU” over the Arabian Sea During 1–7 June 2007: A Case Study 293
Introduction 293
Data and Methodology 294
Results and Discussion 294
Genesis, Intensification, and Movement of Cyclone, Gonu 295
Performance of NWP Models 298
Trends in Frequencies of Cyclonic Disturbances 299
Conclusions 301
References 301
Characteristics of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “NARGIS” over the Bay of Bengal During 27 April to 3 May 2008 302
Introduction 302
Data and Methodology 303
Results and Discussion 303
Brief Life History of Nargis 303
Satellite Imageries 306
Dynamical and Thermodynamical Parameters 306
Adverse Weather 309
Performance of Forecast Issued by RSMC, New Delhi, and NWP Predictions 309
Performance of Forecast Issued by RSMC, New Delhi 309
NWP Model Prediction 309
Conclusions 311
References 312
Characteristics of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “SIDR” over the Bay of Bengal During 11–16 November 2007 313
Introduction 313
Data and Methodology 314
Results and Discussion 315
Genesis, Intensification, Movement, and Landfall of “SIDR” 315
Monitoring of “SIDR” by Satellite 316
DWR Imageries 319
Utilities of AWS Data 319
Performance of Forecast Issued by RSMC, New Delhi, and NWP Predictions 319
Performance of Forecast Issued by RSMC, New Delhi 319
NWP Model Prediction 319
Conclusions 322
References 322
Influence of a Tropical Cyclone Gonu on Phytoplankton Biomass (Chlorophyll a) in the Arabian Sea 324
Introduction 324
Methods 325
Results 325
Discussion 328
Conclusion 331
References 331
Recent Outbreaks of Harmful Algal Blooms Along the Coast of Oman: Possible Response to Climate Change? 333
Introduction 333
Materials and Methods 335
Results and Discussions 336
Conclusion 340
References 341
Understanding the Tropical Cyclone Gonu 342
Introduction 342
Tropical Cyclones at Oman Coast 343
Gonu Cyclone Case Description 344
Model Description and Data 345
Results 347
Conclusion 347
References 352