Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems - Louis Anthony Cox Jr.

Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems

Buch | Softcover
436 Seiten
2010 | Softcover reprint of hardcover 1st ed. 2009
Springer-Verlag New York Inc.
978-1-4419-4703-1 (ISBN)
192,59 inkl. MwSt
In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure.  This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers.

1 INTRODUCTION TO RISK ANALYSIS.- Quantitative Risk Assessment Goals and Challenges.- to Engineering Risk Analysis.- to Health Risk Analysis.- 2 AVOIDING BAD RISK ANALYSIS.- Limitations of Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices.- Limitations of Quantitative Risk Assessment Using Aggregate Exposure and Risk Models.- 3 PRINCIPLES FOR DOING BETTER.- Identifying Nonlinear Causal Relations in Large Data Sets.- Overcoming Preconceptions and Confirmation Biases Using Data Mining.- Estimating the Fraction of Disease Caused by One Component of a Complex Mixture: Bounds for Lung Cancer.- Bounding Resistance Risks for Penicillin.- Confronting Uncertain Causal Mechanisms – Portfolios of Possibilities.- Determining What Can Be Predicted: Identifiability.- 4 APPLICATIONS AND EXTENSIONS.- Predicting the Effects of Changes: Could Removing Arsenic from Tobacco Smoke Significantly Reduce Smoker Risks of Lung Cancer?.- Simplifying Complex Dynamic Networks: A Model of Protease Imbalance and COPD Dynamic Dose-Response.- Value of Information (VOI) in Risk Management Policies for Tracking and Testing Imported Cattle for BSE.- Improving Antiterrorism Risk Analysis.- Designing Resilient Telecommunications Networks.

Erscheint lt. Verlag 8.12.2010
Reihe/Serie International Series in Operations Research Management Science ; 129
Zusatzinfo XXVIII, 436 p.
Verlagsort New York, NY
Sprache englisch
Maße 155 x 235 mm
Themenwelt Mathematik / Informatik Mathematik Angewandte Mathematik
Medizin / Pharmazie Medizinische Fachgebiete Arbeits- / Sozial- / Umweltmedizin
Studium Querschnittsbereiche Klinische Umweltmedizin
Naturwissenschaften Biologie Ökologie / Naturschutz
Wirtschaft Allgemeines / Lexika
Wirtschaft Betriebswirtschaft / Management Unternehmensführung / Management
ISBN-10 1-4419-4703-5 / 1441947035
ISBN-13 978-1-4419-4703-1 / 9781441947031
Zustand Neuware
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