Fatal Grievances

Gregory M. Vecchi earned a B.S. in Management/Human Resources from Park University, Parkville, Missouri, an M.S. in Criminal Justice from the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and a Ph.D. in Conflict Analysis and Resolution from Nova Southeastern University, Fort Lauderdale, Florida. He currently serves as a Professor of Criminal Justice and Homeland Security at Keiser University, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and he is the Principal of VGI Consulting and Training. Dr. Vecchi has over 30 years of law enforcement experience. Dr. Vecchi formerly served as the Chief of the FBI Behavioral Science Unit and career FBI negotiator. In these positions, he gained extensive experience assessing and interacting with violent offenders, as well as researching, training, and conducting threat assessments. Dr. Vecchi has conducted dozens of workplace threat assessments for Fortune 500 companies. Mary Ann Markey received a B.A. in Psychology and an M.A. in Psychology from Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida, and Ph.D. in Conflict Analysis and Resolution from Nova Southeastern University, Fort Lauderdale, Florida. She currently serves as an Adjunct Professor of Psychology at Ringling College of Art and Design, Sarasota, Florida while continuing to conduct research on intra-family violence and homicide, mass murder, and serial murder. Jeffrey A. Daniels earned a B.A. in Psychology at Metropolitan State University, Denver, Colorado, an M.S. in Counseling Psychology from Central Washington University, Ellensburg, Washington, and a Ph.D. in Counseling Psychology from the University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska. He is currently a professor in the School of Counseling and Well-Being at West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia. Dr. Daniels has been engaged in research pertaining to violence and violence prevention for over 23 years and he has engaged in collaborative research with the FBI for over 16 years using Perpetrator-Motive Research Design.

Preface

Chapter 1. Introduction And Orientation to Active Killer Threat Assessment






Scope of this book






A paradigm shift from active shooters to active killers






A change in mindset from being reactive to proactive






Assessment versus analysis






Threat intelligence collection and assessment






The problem with "profiling" active killers






The importance of operationalizing definitions

Chapter 2. Active Killer Characteristics: Myths Vs. Statistics






Myth 1: active killers are everywhere






Myth 2: active killers are only a problem in the United States






Myth 3: disgruntled students and employees are the only threat to safety






Myth 4: the attacker just "snapped"






Myth 5: demographics can identify an active killer

Chapter 3. Direct Behaviors of Planned Lethal Violence






Active killer motivations






Grievance as a precursor of lethal violence






Grievance and the crisis state






The fatal grievance pathway






Planned lethal violence






Direct behaviors and stages of planned lethal violence






Direct behavioral clusters of planned lethal violence






The planned lethal violence stairway model

Chapter 4. Indirect Behavioral Indicators of Planned Lethal Violence And Situational Distressors






Indirect behaviors






Primary indirect behavioral indicators






Secondary indirect behavioral indicators






Stress and violence






Situational distress






Situational distressors

Chapter 5. Threat Management and Resolution: Identifying The Threat






The necessity of structure in active killer threat assessment






Forensic investigation and behavioral analytical methods






Contextual factors






Factors of social desirability






The role of social fabric in threat assessment






Detecting behavioral indicators of planned lethal violence






Baselines and anomalies






Establishing baselines and identifying anomalies






Bias and error considerations in detecting concerning behavior

Chapter 6. Threat Management and Resolution: Assessing The Threat






The problem with relying on "pre-attack behaviors" in threat assessment






Understanding significancy and frequency of anomalies



Prediction and threat assessment






Forecasting in threat assessment






Qualitative and quantitative forecasting






Predictive analytics and modeling






Predictive behavioral threat forecasting






Methodology






Qualitative adjustments to threat confidence levels






Completing the threat assessment






Bias errors in assessing a threat

Chapter 7. Threat Management and Resolution: Engaging The Threat






Conflict management vs. conflict resolution






Monitoring






Third-party intervention






Direct interventions






Engagements based on threat level

Chapter 8. Limitations And Conclusion






Summary of key takeaways






Limitations

Appendix A

Appendix B

Appendix C

Index

References