AIDS Epidemiology

Section 1. The Backcalculation Technique for Reconstruction of HIV Infection Patterns and AIDS Projections.- Perspectives on Using Backcalculation to Estimate HIV Prevalence and Project AIDS Incidence.- Statistical Methods for Reconstructing Infection Curves.- Uncertainty About the Incubation Period of AIDS and Its Impact on Backcalculation.- A Comprehensive Back-Calculation Framework for the Estimation and Prediction of AIDS Cases.- Use of Empirical Transformations in Nonparametric Back-projection of AIDS Incidence Data.- The HIV Epidemic in New York City: Statistical Methods for Projecting AIDS Incidence and Prevalence.- Section 2. HIV Transmission Models.- Triangles in Heterosexual HIV Transmission.- Structured Population Models for HIV Infection Pair Formation and Non-constant Infectivity.- Weak Linkage Between HIV Epidemics in Homosexual Men and Intravenous Drug Users in New York City.- Section 3. Statistical Approaches to Markers of HIV Disease Progression.- Marker Models in Survival Analysis and Applications to Issues Associated with AIDS.- Modeling a Marker of Disease Progression and Onset of Disease.- The Relationship of CD4 Counts Over Time to Survival in Patients with AIDS: Is CD4 a Good Surrogate Marker?.- Modeling the Relationship Between Progression of CD4-Lymphocyte Count and Survival Time.- Recovery of Information and Adjustment for Dependent Censoring Using Surrogate Markers.- Section 4. General Methodological Investigations.- Semi-Parametric Estimation of the Incubation Period of AIDS.- Using Semiparametric Risk Sets for the Analysis of Cross-Sectional Duration Data.- Is Earlier Better for AZT Therapy in IIIV Infection? A Mathematical Model.- On the Estimation Problem of Mixing/Pair Formation Matrices with Applications to Models for Sexually-Transmitted Diseases.