Action in Uncertainty (eBook)

Jean-Charles Pomerol is a specialist in decision support systems and a pioneer in the teaching of artificial intelligence. He headed the Pierre and Marie Curie University (UPMC), France, for several years and has since been president of several foundations and of AGORANOV, the most renowned incubator in Paris.

Chapter 1 Born to Act 1

1.1 It's hard not to act 1

1.2 What is the result of the action taken? 3

1.3 To act or not to act 4

1.4 Synopsis 6

Chapter 2 Two Kinds of Actions: Immediate or with Reasoning 7

2.1 To depend on us or to not depend on us 7

2.2 Action triggered by recognition 9

2.3 Human decision-making 12

2.4 Reasoning before action 17

2.5 Between recognition and reasoning, learning 22

2.6 Conclusion 25

Chapter 3 Anticipation and Planning 27

3.1 A more desirable state of the world 27

3.2 Anticipations 28

3.3 Individual planning 37

3.4 Organizational planning 40

3.5 Conclusion 44

Chapter 4 Act Anyway! 45

4.1 Rationality of the action 46

4.2 Dying of hunger or dying of thirst? 54

4.3 Individual obstacles 59

4.4 Organizational barriers to change and action 68

4.5 Speed of action, heuristics and probabilities 79

4.6 Conclusion 90

Chapter 5 The Conduct of Action and Leadership 93

5.1 On the implementation of decisions 93

5.2 Teaming up 96

5.3 The leader and leadership 105

5.4 Conclusion 111

Chapter 6 Intuition, Expertise and Decision-making 113

6.1 Intuition and "natural decision-making" 113

6.2 Expertise, experts and decision-making 123

6.3 Expertise, environment and uncertainty 129

6.4 Conclusion 137

Conclusion 139

Index of Proper Names 147

Index of Terms 151