Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction

Haraldur Ólafsson is a professor of atmospheric physics at the University of Iceland, leading the Reykjavik School of Meteorology. He is a former professor and the leader of the Bergen School of Meteorology at the University of Bergen in Norway. He has a doctorate from Université Paul Sabatier in France and a Cand. Scient. from the University of Oslo, Norway. Haraldur Olafsson is an expert in mesoscale meteorology and climatology and orographic processes. Jian-Wen Bao is a research meteorologist at NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. He was responsible for developing and testing the physics component of a research global weather prediction model. He is currently participating in a project as a project co-lead to develop an advanced physics suite in NOAA’s Unified Forecast System.

1. DYNAMICAL CORES FOR NWP: AN UNCERTAIN LANDSCAPE

2. DYNAMICAL MODEL DISCRETIZETION

3. PROBABILISTIC VIEW OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION AND ENSEMBLE PREDICTION

4. PREDICTABILITY

5. MODELING MOIST DYNAMICS ON SUBGRID SCALES

6. ENSEMBLE DATA ASSIMILATION

7. SUBGRID TURBULENCE MIXING

8. UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SURFACE LAYER PHYSICS PARAMETERIZATIONS

9. INTERACTION OF CLOUDS AND RADIATION

10. UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PARAMETERIZATION OF CLOUD MICROPHYSICS: AN ILLUSTRATION OF THE PROBLEM

11. MEOSCALE OROGRAPHIC FLOWS

12. TRACERS AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

13. DYNAMIC IDENTIFICATION AND TRACING OF ERRORS IN NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE