Risk Based Technologies (eBook)

Prabhakar V. Varde is as an Associate Director in the Reactor Group and a senior Professor in the Homi Bhabha National Institute at Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai. He completed his BE (Mech.) from APS University, Rewa and his PhD in Reliability Engineering from IIT Bombay. He started his career as an operations engineer for nuclear research reactors in the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai, and for over three decades he has been serving at BARC in the area of nuclear reactor operations and safety.  His specializations are probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) and the development of risk-based applications. Prof Varde is the co-chairman of the PSA Committee (Level 2 and External Event) at the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, India, and a postdoctoral research scientist at Korea Atomic Energy Institute, South Korea and a visiting Professor at University of Maryland, Maryland, USA. He has served as an expert in many international forums including the International Atomic Energy Agency (Vienna), Nuclear Energy Agency (Paris), etc. He is founder of Society for Reliability and Safety and Chief Editor for the SRESA International Journal of Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering, and has authored over 220 peer-reviewed publications, in addition to serving as the editor for more than 5 conference proceedings, and co-authoring a textbook on Risk-based Engineering with Michael Pecht. Dr. Raghu Prakash is currently a Professor in the Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras (IIT Madras) where he specializes in the areas of fatigue, fracture of materials (metals, composites, hybrids), structural integrity assessment, remaining life prediction of critical components used in transportation and energy sectors, apart from new product design. He has developed test systems for use in academia, R&D and industry during his tenure as Technical Director at BiSS Research, Bangalore and at IIT Madras he teaches courses relating to Fracture Mechanics, Design with Advanced Materials, Product Design, DFMA. He is a voting rights member of ASTM International (Technical Committees, D-30, E-08 and E-28) and the vice-Chair of the Technical Committee on Materials Processing and Characterization of ASME. He serves in the editorial boards of multiple journals including the Journal of Structural Longevity, Frattura ed Integrità Strutturale (IGF Journal), Journal of Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering, and is a member of several technical societies. He has won several prestigious awards and recognition for his work, including the Binani Gold Medal (Indian Institute of Metals). Mr. Narendra Joshi completed his Bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from Govt. College of Engineering, Karad and joined BARC in year 1990, and has worked on the operation and maintenance of research reactors for 13 years- he was involved in the preparation of Probabilistic Risk Assessment of many research reactors, including Dhruva, Cirus, Upgraded Apsara, High Flux Research Reactor and other nuclear facilities. He is the Secretary and founder member of the Society for Reliability & Safety, in addition to serving as the Managing Editor of the International Journal on Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering. He was instrumental in successful organization of International Conference on Reliability, Safety and Hazard (ICRESH) held in 2005 and 2010 at Mumbai and 2015 at Lulea, Sweden. He has over 20 publications to his credit in journals and conferences. Mr. Joshi is currently looking after the activities of Human Resource Development, Simulator Training, Root Cause Analysis of Significant Events in research reactors at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai.

Preface 5
Contents 9
About the Editors 11
Material Reliability in Nuclear Power Plants: A Case Study on Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors 14
1 Introduction 14
2 Nuclear Materials Design 15
3 Materials Reliability in Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs) 16
4 What Does Materials Reliability Mean Under Critical Situation? 17
5 Gen. IV Reactor Concepts, Materials Issues, and Reliability 19
5.1 Brief on SFR Core Internal Materials [2, 3, 5, 10–12] 19
5.2 Metal Fuels for SFR [5] 21
5.3 Core Structural for SFR (for MOX and Metal-Fuel Kernels) [2, 3] 22
6 Overall Technology Maturity of SFR In-Core Systems [3] 24
6.1 Primary Sodium Pumps: Material and Fabrication 24
6.2 Intermediate Heat Exchanger (IHX) 24
6.3 Power Conversion Cycle 25
7 Conclusions 26
References 27
Physics-of-Failure Methods and Prognostic and Health Management of Electronic Components 28
1 Introduction 28
2 Reliability Physics Approaches for Developing Robust Electronics Systems 29
3 Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) Approaches for Supporting Electronic Systems 34
4 Summary 35
References 36
Design of Advanced Reactors with Passive Safety Systems: The Reliability Concerns 37
1 Introduction 38
2 Can the Passive Systems Fail? 40
2.1 Difficulties in Evaluation of Functional Failure of Passive Systems 43
3 Methodologies for Reliability Assessment of Passive Systems 44
3.1 APSRA Versus RMPS: A Comparative Assessment 45
4 Issues in the Methodologies of Passive System Reliability Analysis 56
4.1 Treatment of Dynamic Failure Characteristics of Components 56
4.2 Treatment of Independent Process Parameter Variations in Passive System Reliability Analysis 56
4.3 Treatment of Model Uncertainties in a Consistent Manner 57
5 Closure 58
References 59
Uncertainty Modeling for Nonlinear Dynamic Systems––Loadings Applied in Time Domain 61
1 Introduction 61
2 Background Information 62
3 Challenges in Implementation of the SFEM-Based Reliability Evaluation Concept 64
4 A Novel Reliability Approach for Nonlinear Dynamic Systems––Loads Applied in Time Domain 65
5 Moving Least Squares and Kriging Methods 67
6 Improved Kriging Method 70
7 Verification Using a Case Study 70
8 Conclusions 74
References 74
Uncertainty Quantification of Failure Probability and a Dynamic Risk Analysis of Decision-Making for Maintenance of Aging Infrastructure 77
1 Introduction 78
2 A Statistical Analysis Methodology for a Multi-scale Fatigue Model 80
3 Development of a Multi-scale Fatigue Model in Five Steps 82
4 Steps 1–3 of a Fatigue Model for a Steel Pipe––A Numerical Example 83
5 Step 4 (Life at Level 3) of a Fatigue Model for a Steel Pipe––A Numerical Example 84
6 Step 5 (Life at Small Failures of Coverage) of a Fatigue Model for a Steel Pipe 85
7 From a Multi-scale Fatigue Model to a Dynamic Risk Analysis of a Maintenance Strategy 88
8 Significance and Limitations of the Multi-scale Fatigue Life Model and Risk Analysis 89
9 Concluding Remarks 90
References 91
Risk and Reliability Management Approach to Defence Strategic Systems 93
1 Introduction 94
2 Systems Safety Analysis 94
2.1 Systems Safety in Long-Range Ballistic Missiles 95
2.2 Systems Safety in Air Defence Systems 95
2.3 Flight Safety with Aerospace Vehicles 95
2.4 Systems Safety for Ship and Aerial Platforms Based Weapons 96
2.5 Software Vulnerability Assessment for Systems Safety 96
3 Systems Safety Analysis Tools 96
3.1 Fault Hazard Analysis 97
3.2 Fault Tree Analysis 97
3.3 Event Tree Analysis 98
3.4 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) 100
3.5 Failure Modes, Effects, Criticality Analysis (FMECA) 101
3.6 Consequence Analysis 102
3.7 Tools for Testing Software Vulnerability 102
4 Risk Management of Defence Systems 103
5 Challenges in Risk Management of Defence Systems 110
6 Systems Safety and Reliability 110
7 Conclusions 112
References 113
Risk-Informed Approach for Project Scheduling and Forecasting, During Commissioning Phase of a First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) Nuclear Plant: A System Theoretic and Bayesian Framework 114
1 Introduction 115
2 Layout of the SSEs of a Liquid Metal Cooled Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) 116
2.1 Formulation of Commissioning Methodology 118
3 The System Theoretic Approach for Estimation of the Commissioning Time 120
3.1 Rudimentary Model for the Industrial Worker 123
3.2 Models for the Human–Machine Interface in Erection, Installation, and Commissioning of SSEs 123
3.3 Estimation of the State 127
3.4 Use of a Kalman Filter 128
4 Factors for Building in Accuracy in Project Schedules 129
5 Robust Models for Factoring in Uncertainties 131
6 Bayesian Framework 132
7 Conclusion 135
References 135
Human Reliability as a Science—A Divergence on Models 137
1 Introduction 137
2 A Very Brief Overview of Human Reliability Models 138
3 The Definition of Science 139
4 Do We Know Enough? 141
5 A Very Brief Introduction to HRA Data 147
6 Have We Experimented Enough? 150
7 Conclusions 151
References 151
Human Reliability Assessment—State of the Art for Task- and Goal-Related Behavior 153
1 Importance of the Reliability of Human Actions 153
1.1 The Human Factor 153
2 Systemic Consideration of Human Reliability 155
2.1 Importance of the Working Levels 155
2.2 Influence of the Context 157
2.3 Influence of System Complexity on Human Action 158
3 Approaches to Human Reliability Assessment 168
3.1 Principle of the Procedures for Judging Human Actions 168
3.2 Task-Oriented Procedures 170
3.3 Utility-Oriented Procedures 172
4 Important Pitfalls in System Safety Assessment 174
4.1 Design-Bases Versus Beyond- Design-Bases Events 174
4.2 Scope of the System Addressed in the Safety Assessment 176
References 179
Reliability of Non-destructive Testing in the Railway Field: Common Practice and New Trends 182
1 Introduction 182
2 Probability of Detection Curves in a Nutshell 185
3 Reliability of Non-destructive Testing of Solid Railway Axles 188
4 Reliability of Non-destructive Testing of Hollow Railway Axles 192
5 Reliability of Non-destructive Testing of Rails 194
6 Conclusions 198
References 199
Toward Improved and Reliable Estimation of Operating Life of Critical Components Through Assessment of Fatigue Properties Using Novel Fatigue Testing Concepts 201
1 Introduction 202
2 Fatigue Properties Estimation in Power Plant Materials Through Novel Test Methods 204
2.1 Cyclic Ball Indentation Test Method 204
2.2 Cyclic Small Punch Tests 208
3 Advances in Corrosion-Fatigue Crack Growth Rate Studies 210
3.1 Mitigation of Corrosion-Fatigue Crack Growth Rates Through Electrode Potential 212
4 Summary 214
References 215
Joint Release and Testing Stop Time Policy with Testing-Effort and Change Point 217
1 Introduction 218
2 Software Reliability Modeling 220
2.1 Notations 221
2.2 Assumptions 221
2.3 Testing-Effort Dependent Modeling Framework 222
2.4 Cost Modeling 224
3 Optimal Policies Using MAUT 225
3.1 Multi-attribute Utility Theory 226
4 Numerical Example 227
5 Conclusion 228
References 228
MIRCE Science Based Operational Risk Assessment 231
1 Introduction 232
2 Reliability Theory Approach to Risk Assessment 233
2.1 Reliability Function 234
2.2 Physical Meaning of a Reliability Function 235
2.3 Mathematical Meaning of Reliability Function 236
3 What Is Beyond a Reliability Function? 237
4 Physical Reality Beyond the Reliability Function 237
4.1 Boeing N747PA 238
4.2 Monaco Grand Prix 2018 240
4.3 Summary 241
5 The Philosophy of MIRCE Science 242
6 Axioms of MIRCE Science 243
7 MIRCE Space Is Beyond the Reliability Function 244
8 The Concept of MIRCE Space in MIRCE Science 246
8.1 Probabilistic Motion Through MIRCE Space 247
8.2 Sequentiality of Functionability Events in MIRCE Science 248
9 MIRCE Functionability Equation 250
10 MIRCE Functionability Work Equations 251
11 MIRCE Mechanics 252
11.1 Negative Functionability Events Generating Mechanisms 253
11.2 Positive Functionability Actions 254
11.3 Physical Scale of MIRCE Mechanics 255
12 The Role of MIRCE Science in Life Cycle Engineering and Management 257
13 Conclusions 258
Appendix: Worldwide Observed MIRCE Science Functionability Events 259
Reference 263
Polya Urn Model for Assessment of Prestress Loss in Prestressed Concrete (PSC) Girders in a Bridge System using Limited Monitoring Data 264
1 Introduction 265
2 Polya Urn Model 266
3 Procedure for Condition Assessment of Prestressed Concrete Girders in a Bridge System using Limited Monitoring Data 270
3.1 Prediction of Expected Prestress Loss at Different Times 271
3.2 Estimation of Prestress Loss Using Strain Monitoring Data 271
4 Illustrative Example 272
4.1 Determination of Allowable Prestress Loss at Different Times 272
4.2 Application of Polya Urn Model 273
5 Case Study 275
6 Summary 283
References 284
Metamodeling-Based Reliability Analysis of Structures Under Stochastic Dynamic Loads with Special Emphasis to Earthquake 286
1 Introduction 286
2 Reliability Analysis of Structures by MCS in the Metamodeling Framework 289
2.1 Dual RSM Approach of Response Approximation 290
2.2 Proposed Direct Response Approximation Approach 290
3 Various Metamodeling Approaches 291
3.1 LSM-Based RSM 292
3.2 MLSM-Based RSM 292
3.3 ANN-Based Metamodeling 293
3.4 Kriging Metamodeling 294
3.5 SVR-Based Metamodeling 296
4 Design of Experiment Scheme for Metamodel Construction 298
5 Numerical Demonstration 299
6 Summary and Observations 302
References 303
Application of Reliability and Other Associated Mathematical Principles to Engineering and Other Disciplines 305
1 Introduction: How to Conduct Interdisciplinary Research? 306
2 Case-1 Sociology: Mathematical Formulation of Poverty Index 306
2.1 Description of New Model 307
2.2 Validation of the New Model 308
2.3 Analysis of Data 308
2.4 Application of Optimization Principles to Poverty Index 311
2.5 Results 311
2.6 Conclusions 313
3 Case-II Civil Engineering: Probabilistic Analysis of Cycle Length for Signalized Intersections in Transportation Engineering 313
3.1 Methodology 314
3.2 Results and Discussion of Results 315
3.3 Conclusions 315
4 Case-III Kinesiology: Calculation of Forces in a Lumbar Spine Model with Multiple Support Stays 315
4.1 Refined Lumbar Spine Model 317
4.2 Conclusion 319
References 320