Predictability of Weather and Climate

Tim N. Palmer is Head of the Probability Forecasting and Diagnostics Division at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Renate Hagedorn is the education officer for the ECMWF research department.

Preface; 1. Predictability of weather and climate: from theory to practice T. N. Palmer; 2. Predictability from a dynamical meteorology perspective B. Hoskins; 3. Predictability - a problem partly solved E. N. Lorenz; 4. The Liouville Equation and atmospheric predictability M. Ehrendorfer; 5. Application of generalized stability theory to deterministic and statistical prediction P. J. Ioannou and B. F. Farrell; 6. Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation T. M. Hamill; 7. Ensemble forecasting and data assimilation: two problems with the same solution? E. Kalnay, B. Hunt, E. Ott and I. Szunyogh; 8. Approximating optimal state estimation B. F. Farrell and P. J. Ioannou; 9. Predictability past predictability present L. A. Smith; 10. Predictability of coupled processes A. Timmermann and F.-F. Jin; 11. Predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability D. E. Waliser; 12. Predictability of seasonal climate variations: a pedagogical review J. Shukla and J. L. Kinter III; 13. Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation M. Latif, H. Pohlmann and W. Park; 14. On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales F. Molteni, F. Kucharski and S. Corti; 15. Model error in weather and climate forecasting M. Allen, D. Frame, J. Kettleborough and D. Stainforth; 16. Observations, assimilation and the improvement of global weather prediction - some results from operational forecasting and ERA-40 A. J. Simmons; 17. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system R. Buizza; 18. Limited-area ensemble forecasting: the COSMO-LEPS system S. Tibaldi, T. Paccagnella, C. Marsigli, A. Montani and F. Nerozzi; 19. Operational seasonal prediction D. L. T. Anderson; 20. Weather and seasonal climate forecasts using the superensemble approach T. N. Krishnamurti, T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, A. K. Mitra, W. T. Yun, L. Stefanova, B. P. Mackey, A. J. O'Shay and W. K. Dewar; 21. Predictability and targeted observations A. Thorpe and G. N. Petersen; 22. The attributes of forecast systems: a framework for the evaluation and calibration of weather forecasts Z. Toth, O. Talagrand and Y. Zhu; 23. Predictability from a forecast provider's perspective K. Mylne; 24. Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings? F. Lalaurette and G. van der Grijn; 25. Predictability and economic value D. S. Richardson; 26. A three-tier overlapping prediction scheme: tools for strategic and tactical decisions in the developing world P. J. Webster, T. Hopson, C. Hoyos, A. Subbiah, H.-R. Chang and R. Grossman; 27. DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts R. Hagedorn, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and T. N. Palmer; Index.