Analyzing and Modeling Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Infectious Diseases

Dongmei Chen, PhD, is Associate Professor in the Department of Geography and Director of the Laboratory for Geographic Information and Spatial Analysis at Queen’s University, Canada. Bernard Moulin, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering at Laval University, Canada. Jianhong Wu, PhD, is Canada Research Chair and University Distinguished Research Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics and Director of the Center for Disease Modeling at York University, Canada.

Foreword ix
Nicholas Chrisman

Acknowledgements xi

Editors xiii

Contributors xv

PART I OVERVIEW

1 Introduction to Analyzing and Modeling Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Infectious Diseases 3
Dongmei Chen, Bernard Moulin, and Jianhong Wu

2 Modeling the Spread of Infectious Diseases: A Review 19
Dongmei Chen

PART II MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

3 West Nile Virus: A Narrative from Bioinformatics and Mathematical Modeling Studies 45
U.S.N. Murty, Amit K. Banerjee, and Jianhong Wu

4 West Nile Virus Risk Assessment and Forecasting Using Statistical and Dynamical Models 77
Ahmed Abdelrazec, Yurong Cao, Xin Gao, Paul Proctor, Hui Zheng, and Huaiping Zhu

5 Using Mathematical Modeling to Integrate Disease Surveillance and Global Air Transportation Data 97
Julien Arino and Kamran Khan

6 Malaria Models with Spatial Effects 109
Daozhou Gao and Shigui Ruan

7 Avian Influenza Spread and Transmission Dynamics 137
Lydia Bourouiba, Stephen Gourley, Rongsong Liu, John Takekawa, and Jianhong Wu

PART III SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND STATISTICAL MODELING OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

8 Analyzing the Potential Impact of Bird Migration on the Global Spread of H5N1 Avian Influenza (2007–2011) Using Spatiotemporal Mapping Methods 163
Heather Richardson and Dongmei Chen

9 Cloud Computing–Enabled Cluster Detection Using a Flexibly Shaped Scan Statistic for Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance 177
Paul Belanger and Kieran Moore

10 Mapping the Distribution of Malaria: Current Approaches and Future Directions 189
Leah R. Johnson, Kevin D. Lafferty, Amy McNally, Erin Mordecai, Krijn P. Paaijmans, Samraat Pawar, and Sadie J. Ryan

11 Statistical Modeling of Spatiotemporal Infectious Disease Transmission 211
Rob Deardon, Xuan Fang, and Grace P.S. Kwong

12 Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Schistosomiasis in China: Bayesian-Based Geostatistical Analysis 233
Zhi-Jie Zhang

13 Spatial Analysis and Statistical Modeling of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area 247
Frank Wen, Dongmei Chen, and Anna Majury

14 West Nile Virus Mosquito Abundance Modeling Using Nonstationary Spatiotemporal Geostatistics 263
Eun-Hye Yoo, Dongmei Chen, and Curtis Russel

15 Spatial Pattern Analysis of Multivariate Disease Data 283
Cindy X. Feng and Charmaine B. Dean

PART IV GEOSIMULATION AND TOOLS FOR ANALYZING AND SIMULATING SPREADS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

16 The ZoonosisMAGS Project (Part 1): Population-Based Geosimulation of Zoonoses in an Informed Virtual Geographic Environment 299
Bernard Moulin, Mondher Bouden, and Daniel Navarro

17 ZoonosisMAGS Project (Part 2): Complementarity of a Rapid-Prototyping Tool and of a Full-Scale Geosimulator for Population-Based Geosimulation of Zoonoses 341
Bernard Moulin, Daniel Navarro, Dominic Marcotte, Said Sedrati, and Mondher Bouden

18 Web Mapping and Behavior Pattern Extraction Tools to Assess Lyme Disease Risk for Humans in Peri-urban Forests 371
Hedi Haddad, Bernard Moulin, Franck Manirakiza, Christelle M´eha, Vincent Godard, and Samuel Mermet

19 An Integrated Approach for Communicable Disease Geosimulation Based on Epidemiological, Human Mobility and Public Intervention Models 403
Hedi Haddad, Bernard Moulin, and Marius Thériault

20 Smartphone Trajectories as Data Sources for Agent-based Infection-spread Modeling 443
Marcia R. Friesen and Robert D. McLeod

Index 473