Space Debris (eBook)

Table of Contents 5
Prolog 9
1 Introduction 11
1.1 HISTORY OF THE EVOLVING SPACE DEBRIS RESEARCH 11
1.2 GUIDANCE FOR READING THIS BOOK 14
1.3 REFERENCES 14
2 The Current Space Debris Environment and its Sources 15
2.1 LAUNCH HISTORY AND THE RESULTING ORBITAL ENVIRONMENT 15
27,044 23
2.2 HISTORIC ON-ORBIT BREAK-UP EVENTS 28
2.3 NON-FRAGMENTATION DEBRIS SOURCES 33
2.4 GROUND-BASED RADAR AND OPTICAL MEASUREMENTS 37
2.5 IN-SITU MEASUREMENTS AND RETRIEVED SURFACES 57
2.6 REFERENCES 67
3 Modeling of the Current Space Debris Environment 69
3.1 ORBIT PROPAGATION METHODS FOR LARGE POPULATIONS 69
3.2 VOLUME DISCRETIZATION AND CELL-PASSAGE EVENTS 71
3.3 THE TRACKABLE SPACE OBJECT POPULATION 76
3.4 MODELING EXPLOSION AND COLLISION FRAGMENTS 77
3.5 MODELING SOLID ROCKET MOTOR SLAG AND DUST 86
3.6 MODELING SODIUM–POTASSIUM COOLANT DROPLETS 93
3.7 MODELING WESTFORD NEEDLE CLUSTERS 96
3.8 MODELING SURFACE DEGRADATION AND IMPACT EJECTA 97
3.9 HISTORIC EVOLUTION AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF DEBRIS 101
3.10 COMPARISON OF MEASUREMENTS AND MODELED DATA 114
3.11 ALTERNATIVE SPACE DEBRIS ENVIRONMENT MODELS 121
3.12 REFERENCES 122
4 Modeling of Collision Flux for the Current Space Debris Environment 125
4.1 DETERMINATION OF COLLISION FLUX 125
4.2 ANALYSIS OF COLLISION GEOMETRIES 129
4.3 COLLISION FLUX ASSESSMENT FOR TYPICAL TARGET ORBITS 132
4.4 REFERENCES 152
5 Modeling of the Future Space Debris Environment 153
5.1 ORBIT PROPAGATION METHODS FOR LONG-TERM PREDICTIONS 153
5.2 CONCEPTS OFALONG-TERM DEBRIS ENVIRONMENT PROJECTION 154
5.3 MODELING FUTURE LAUNCH TRAFFIC AND RELEASE EVENTS 155
5.4 DEPLOYMENTS OF CONSTELLATIONS AND NANO-SATELLITES 158
5.5 DEFINITION OF A BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FORECAST SCENARIO 161
5.6 VARIATIONS OF A BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FORECAST SCENARIO 169
5.7 ALTERNATIVE DEBRIS ENVIRONMENT PROJECTION MODELS 171
5.8 REFERENCES 172
6 Effects of Debris Mitigation Measures on Environment Projections 175
6.1 SPACE DEBRIS MITIGATION OPTIONS 175
6.2 EXPLOSION PREVENTION BY END-OF-LIFE PASSIVATION 178
6.3 POST-MISSION DISPOSAL FROM LOW-EARTH ORBITS 180
6.4 POST-MISSION DISPOSAL FROM GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ORBITS 193
6.5 DE-ORBIT OF GTO UPPER STAGES 200
6.7 REFERENCES 207
7 Hypervelocity Impact Damage Assessment and Protection Techniques 209
7.1 HYPERVELOCITY ACCELERATORSANDHYDROCODESIMULATIONS 209
7.2 EFFECTS OF HYPERVELOCITY IMPACTS 213
7.3 SINGLE-WALL DAMAGE EQUATIONS 215
7.4 MULTIPLE-WALL DAMAGE EQUATIONS 218
7.5 HVI SHIELD DESIGNS AND IMPLEMENTATIONS 222
7.6 REFERENCES 224
8 Operational Collision Avoidance with Regard to Catalog Objects 225
8.1 ORBIT PREDICTION AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTIES 225
8.2 DETERMINATION OF NEAR-MISS CONJUNCTION EVENTS 229
8.3 COLLISION RISK ESTIMATE FOR NEAR-MISS CONJUNCTIONS 232
8.4 STATISTICAL FORECAST OF AVOIDANCE MANEUVER FREQUENCY 236
8.5 COLLISION AVOIDANCE FOR OPERATIONAL SATELLITES 243
yes 246
9 Re-Entry Prediction and On-Ground Risk Estimation 251
9.1 HISTORY OF HAZARDOUS RE-ENTRY EVENTS 251
9.2 LONG- AND MEDIUM-TERM RE-ENTRY PREDICTIONS 254
9.3 SHORT-TERM RE-ENTRY PREDICTIONS 259
9.4 PREDICTION OF BREAK-UP AND SURVIVAL OF ENTRY OBJECTS 266
9.5 ESTIMATION OF ON-GROUND RISK DUE TO RE-ENTRIES 276
9.6 LONG- AND SHORT-TERM RE-ENTRY RISK MANAGEMENT 282
9.7 HAZARDOUS RE-ENTRYMATERIALS 295
9.8 REFERENCES 297
10 Modeling of the Terrestrial Meteoroid Environment 299
10.1 THE DIVINE–STAUBACH METEOROID MODEL 299
10.2 METEOROID FLUX ASSESSMENT FOR TYPICAL TARGET ORBITS 304
10.3 MODELING METEOROID STREAM EVENTS 306
10.4 NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS AND ASSOCIATED RISKS 311
10.5 REFERENCES 319
11 Space Debris Activities in an International Context 321
11.1 INTERNATIONAL FORUMS FOR INFORMATION EXCHANGE 321
11.2 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AT A TECHNICAL LEVEL 322
11.3 INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS AND POLICIES 323
11.4 REFERENCES 324
Epilog 325
A Basics of Orbit Mechanics 326
A.1 KEPLER ORBITS 326
A.2 PLANAR ORBIT TRANSFER MANEUVERS 330
A.3 SHAPE OF THE EARTH AND THE GEODETIC POSITION 331
A.4 MAJOR PERTURBATIONS ON EARTH ORBITS 331
A.5 THE PERTURBED NEWTON EQUATIONS 333
A.6 THE GAUSS PERTURBATION EQUATIONS 334
A.7 THE LAGRANGE PERTURBATION EQUATIONS 335
A.8 INTEGRATING THE PERTURBATION EQUATIONS 335
A.9 RESULTING PERTURBATIONS ON EARTH ORBITS 337
A.10 REFERENCES 339
B The Atmosphere of the Earth 340
B.1 STRUCTURE OF THERMOSPHERE MODELS 340
B.2 IMPLEMENTATIONS OF THERMOSPHERE MODELS 343
B.3 SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES 345
B.4 REFERENCES 356
C The Gravitational Potential of the Earth 358
C.1 MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL 358
C.2 HARMONIC COEFFICIENTS OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL 359
C.3 REFERENCES 363
D The World Population Viewed from Orbit 364
D.1 MODEL OF THE WORLD POPULATION DENSITY DISTRIBUTION 364
D.2 SAMPLING THE WORLD POPULATION ALONG GROUND TRACKS 365
D.3 REFERENCES 378
List of Symbols 395
List of Abbreviations 401
List of Tables 407
List of Figures 409