New Order in the Gulf

Dina Esfandiary is Senior Advisor in the Middle East and North Africa department of the International Crisis Group (ICG), Belgium. She worked previously at The Century Foundation, U.S and the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, U.S. She is the co-author of Triple-Axis: Iran’s Relations with Russia and China (I.B Tauris, 2018) and Living on the Edge: Iran and the?Practice of Nuclear Hedging (2016). She has also published in Foreign Affairs, The Atlantic, The Guardian, The Washington Post, The New York Times among others.

Introduction
Defining the change and situating it in the context of a rapidly changing region
Historical overview of relations between states in the Persian Gulf, including the 2003-2011 period
A discussion of domestic dynamics in the UAE: the rise of MBZ

Chapter One: The Arab Uprisings: a key moment for the UAE
Summary of the events
An Arab Uprisings in the Persian Gulf?
The impact of the Arab Uprisings on the UAE
Collapse of Arab powerhouses
The Perceived Rise of Iran
The Perception of US influence and Power in the Region
Changes in the region following the Arab Uprisings

Chapter Two: The US Pivot to Asia: proof of a US departure from the region
The History of the US presence in the Persian Gulf region
The Pivot
The impact of the Pivot on the region

Chapter Three: The Iran nuclear deal: the final straw
The deal itself
The Gulf Arabs and the Iran nuclear crisis
The impact of the deal on the UAE

Chapter Four: The UAE’s Assertiveness – what does it look like?
Growing capabilities
Military
Political and diplomatic clout
Economic and Cultural influence
Intent, including the UAE’s deployment in regional arenas

Chapter Five: Assertiveness: The UAE’s perception of success
Case Study: Yemen
Post 2020: Emirati over-reach?

Chapter Six: The impact of the UAE’s assertiveness for the Persian Gulf: The 2017 split
Driven by the UAE
Entrenchment of assertiveness for others
Did Al Ula resolve the dispute?
Conclusion and recommendations for the West