Judgment and Decision Making

Series preface; Contributors; Editors' preface to the second edition; Part I. Introduction and Overview: 1. Multiattribute evaluation; 2. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases; 3. Coherence and correspondence theories in judgment and decision making; 4. Enhancing diagnostic decisions; Part II. Applications in Public Policy: 5. Illusions and mirages in public policy; 6. The psychology of sunk cost; 7. Value-focused thinking about strategic decisions at BC Hydro; 8. Making better use of scientific knowledge: separating truth from justice; Part III. Applications in Economics: 9. Choices, values and frames; 10. Who uses the cost-benefit rules of choice? Implications for the normative status of microeconomic theory; 11. Does studying economics inhibit cooperation?; Part IV. Legal Applications: 12. Leading questions and the eyewitness report; 13. Explanation-based decision making; 14. Decision theory, reasonable doubt and the utility of erroneous acquittals; Part V. Medical Applications: 15. Capturing policy in hearing-aid decisions by audiologists; 16. Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting; 17. On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies; 18. Enhanced interpretation of diagnostic images; Part VI. Experts: 19. Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers; 20. Expert judgment: some necessary conditions and an example; 21. The expert witness in psychology and psychiatry; Part VII. Forecasting and Prediction: 22. What forecast (seems to) mean; 23. Proper and improper linear models; 24. Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: implications for research and the improvement of forecasts; Part VIII. Bargaining and negotiation: 25. The judgment policies of negotiators and the structure of negotiation problems; 26. The effect of agents and mediators on negotiation outcomes; Part IX. Risk: 27. Risk within reason; 28. Risk perception and communication; 29. Perceived risk, trust and democracy; Part X. Research Methods: 30. Value elicitation: is there anything in there?; 31. The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items; 32. The a priori case against graphology: methodological and conceptual issues; Part XI. Critiques and New Directions I: 33. The two camps on rationality Helmut Jungermann; 34. On cognitive illusions and their implications; 35. Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality; 36. Judgment and decision making in social context: discourse processes and rational inference; Part XII. Critiques and New Directions II: 37. Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: toward an integrative approach; 38. Nonconsequentialist decisions; 39. Algebra and process in the modeling of risky choice; 40. The theory of image theory: an examination of the central conceptual structure; Author index; Subject index.