Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences

A Test-Drive Method for Critical Decision-Making in Organizations

Richard M. Adler (Autor)

Buch | Hardcover

XXI, 304 Seiten

2020 | 1st ed. 2020
Springer International Publishing (Verlag)
978-3-030-32713-2 (ISBN)

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This title provides managers, executives and other professionals with an innovative method for critical decision-making. The book explains the reasons for decision failures using the Law of Unintended Consequences. This account draws on the work of sociologist Robert K. Merton, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, and economist Herbert Simon to identify two primary causes : cognitive biases and bounded rationality. It introduces an innovative method for "test driving" decisions that addresses both causes by combining scenario planning and "what-if" simulations. This method enables professionals to learn safely from virtual mistakes rather than real ones. It also provides four sample test drives of realistic critical decisions as well as two instructional videos to illustrate this new method. This book provides leaders and their support teams with important new tools for analyzing and refining complex decisions that are critical to organizational well-being and survival.

Richard M. Adler is Founder and President of DecisionPath (USA), where he creates advanced decision support solutions for diverse problems including competitive marketing, counter-terrorism strategy, and enabling organizational change. He has more than three decades of experience building software tools and applications to automate and improve business operations and critical decision-making. Richard has published on topics including intelligent and distributed systems, simulation, homeland security, and knowledge management.

Chapter 1. Critical decisions.- Chapter 2. The Law of Unintended Consequences (LUC).- Chapter 3. Psychology of Critical Decision-Making.- Chapter 4. Rational Decision-Making.- Chapter 5. Defending Your Critical Decisions...Against You.- Chapter 6. BI, Analytics, and Their Discontents.- Chapter 7. Tools of the Decision Support Trade.- Chapter 8. Test Drive Your Critical Decisions.- Chapter 9. Competitive Marketing Strategy.- Chapter 10. Disruptive Growth.- Chapter 11. Managing Enterprise Risk.- Chapter 12. Enabling Organizational Change.- Chapter 13. Pragmatics.- Chapter 14. Conclusions.

Erscheinungsdatum	18.02.2020
Zusatzinfo	XXI, 304 p. 58 illus.
Verlagsort	Cham
Sprache	englisch
Maße	155 x 235 mm
Gewicht	658 g
Themenwelt	Geisteswissenschaften ► Psychologie ► Arbeits- und Organisationspsychologie
	Medizin / Pharmazie ► Medizinische Fachgebiete ► Psychiatrie / Psychotherapie
	Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Unternehmensführung / Management
Schlagworte	Amos Tversky • Critical Decision-making • Daniel Kahneman • Decision Analysis • Decision Lifecycle • DecisionPath • decision science • decision strategy • Decision Test-Drives • ForeTell Software • Herbert Simon • Law of Unintended Consequences • Modeling and Simulating Critical Decisions • Modeling Transformational Change • Psychology of Critical Decision Making • rational decision making • Robert K. Merton
ISBN-10	3-030-32713-2 / 3030327132
ISBN-13	978-3-030-32713-2 / 9783030327132
Zustand	Neuware