Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles)

James W. Coons

1. One-Year Treasury Note Yield: January to December 1989. 2. Selected Interest Rates: 1980-1989 3. The Composite Interest Rate Cycle Index: (CIRCI): 1953-1989 4. Interest Rates and the Business Cycle: 1946-1989 5. Cyclical Peaks and Troughs in the Composite Interest Rate Cycle Index (CIRCI): 1953-1989 6. Comparison of the Timing of Turning Points in the CIRCI and its Components: 1953-1988 7. The Credit Market 8. The Leading Inflation Index and the CIRCI: 1953 to 1989 9. The Case of the Missing Signal: January to December 1981 10. Conditional Probability Distributions Observed and Smoothed: August 1953 to December 1988 11a. Sequential Filter Turning Point Probabilities: August 1953-January 1972 11b. Sequential Filter Turning Point Probabilities: August 1971-August 1990 12. Sequential Filter Turning Point Probabilities Looking For a Trough: March 1989 to October 1993.