Contact with Alien Civilizations (eBook)

Michael Michaud served as Director of the U.S. State Department's Office of Advanced Technology and as Counselor for Science, Technology, and Environment at the American embassies in Paris and Tokyo. He led the negotiation of international agreements, played an active role in reviving U.S.-Soviet space cooperation, represented foreign policy interests in interagency discussions of U.S. space policy, and testified before Congress on space-related issues. He has published thirty articles and papers on the implications of contact, as well as sixty articles on other subjects and the book, Reaching for the High Frontier: The American Pro-Space Movement, 1972-1984.

Table of Contents 6
Introduction 13
Hopes and Fears 15
Searching 15
Consequences 17
Before and After 1960 19
The Book 20
An Apology 20
A Belief in Other Minds 21
An Ancient Idea 21
The Closed Universe 23
Copernicanism 25
The Triumph of Observation 26
Fictional Aliens 27
An Impersonal Universe 29
Evolution and Sharpened Questions 31
Lowell, and Alien Invaders 32
Expansion and Skepticism 34
Ubiquitous Life 36
A New Era 37
Searching for Life 37
Disappointment and Revival 38
A Metadiscipline 40
Panspermia 41
The Mars Rock 42
Was Arrhenius Right after All? 43
Searching for Intelligence 45
Radio Days 45
From Russia with Theories 48
American Initiatives 48
Privatizing SETI 52
Other Wavelengths, Other Technologies 56
Above the Clouds 57
Looking for the Astroengineers 58
Exotic Means 60
Sending Our Own Signals 61
Active SETI 61
The Arecibo Blast 62
Is This Research? 64
Probabilities 66
Probability and Analogy 66
The Drake Equation 67
Being Trendy 69
Probabilities: The Astronomical Factors 70
Stars 70
Planets 72
Habitable Zones 79
Probabilities: Life 80
Miracle, Rare Accident, or Probable Event? 80
Chancists Versus Convergionists 82
Teleology and Self-Organization 85
Gaia and Her Sisters 86
Extremophiles and Dual Biospheres 87
Probabilities: Intelligence 89
Inevitable, or a Fluke? 89
Social Animals 91
How Brains Evolve, or Don’t 92
The Debate Goes on 93
Our Intelligent Companions 94
Dolphins 95
Brother Apes 97
Future Minds 99
Probabilities: Civilization, Technology, and Science 101
Civilization 101
Technology and Science 103
Probabilities: Longevity 106
How Long Do Technological Civilizations Live? 106
The Shadow of the Bomb 107
Other Means of Self-destruction 108
Threatening Science 109
Hints of Optimism 111
Fear of Machines 112
Statistics 114
Extraterrestrial Terminators 115
Black Clouds, Dark Planets, Bursting Stars 118
A Growing Sun 121
The Drake Equation, Take Two 123
Should We Continue the Search? 125
Premature Opinions 125
Patience 127
What Can We Conclude? 128
How Much Is Enough? 129
Uncertainty, Ambiguity, and Serendipity 131
The Consequences of Searching 132
Direct Contact 134
Starflight 134
Assumptions 135
Starships of the Mind 137
Human Probes 138
Alien Probes 140
Human Voyages 142
Alien Colonizers 145
Searching for Artifacts 147
Astroarchaeology 150
The Monuments of Mars 152
Ancient Visitors to Earth 153
The UFO Controversy 155
Rocks from the Sky 155
Ancient Sightings 156
The Air Force Investigates 159
Condon the Denier 161
Conspiracies, Crop Circles, and Abductions 163
Fact, Speculation, and Disinformation 165
Real But Unknown Phenomena? 166
Psychological Explanations 167
Myths Past and Present 169
The Galilean Test 170
The Case for UFO Research 170
A Scientific Review 171
A Cautionary Note 172
The Drake Equation, Take Three 174
Why Don’t We See Them? 176
Before Fermi 176
The Great Debate 177
If They Could Expand, They Must Not Exist 178
Tiplerism 180
Counter Arguments 181
The Psychology of Expansion 183
Cosmic Geography 184
A Minimum Model of Interstellar Expansion 186
The Great Silence 186
Other Theories 188
The Silence of the Immortals 189
Catalogs of Solutions 191
Reformulating the Problem 192
Explanations Common to Both 193
Uniqueness 193
Out of Range 194
Failures of Perception 194
Failures of Imagination 194
Failures of Nerve 194
New Arrival 195
Inadequate Human Technology 195
Inadequate Search Strategies 195
We Misunderstand the Evidence 195
They Are Hiding 195
Humans Are Boring 196
Conspiracy 196
Transcendence 196
They Are God 196
Explanations for the Lack of Signals 196
No Beacons 196
No Long-Distance Calls 197
No Local Calls 197
They Prefer Travel 197
Beyond Our Imaginations 197
Explanations for the Lack of Artifacts 197
Impossible 197
Possible, But Not Worth Doing 198
Limited Ambitions 198
Isolation 198
On Their Way 198
They Visited a Long Time Ago 198
Here But Undetected 198
Here and Misunderstood 199
Who Needs Planets? 199
They Are Not Travelers 199
Beyond Our Imaginations 199
A Subcase: Astroengineering 199
Is There a Paradox? 199
Thinking Outside the Box 202
Misunderstanding the Universe 202
The Multiverse 205
The Anthropic Challenge 205
Self-reproducing Universes 207
The Appearance of Design 209
Filling a Philosophical Vacuum 212
SETI and Religion 214
Gods, Angels, and Devils 215
Will They Be Religious? 217
Interstellar Evangelism 219
The Consequences of Contact 220
Optimists and Pessimists 220
Scenarios of Contact: Remote Detection 221
Scenarios of Contact: Close to Home 223
The Human Analogy 224
Images of Aliens 225
Alien Machines 228
Timing 229
Hopes 231
Reassurance 231
A Sense of Community 232
Ego Satisfaction 233
Unifying Humankind 234
A Shortcut to Wisdom 235
Paths to Utopia 240
Salvation 242
An Opening into Deep Time 242
Fears 244
The End of Hubris 244
Cultural Shock 245
Demoralized Researchers 250
Xenophobia 251
Judgment Day 251
Interstellar Travel Confirmed 252
Dangers 253
Optimists and Pessimists 253
There Are No Dangers 254
Yes, There Are Dangers 256
The Trojan Horse 258
Mixed Emotions 260
Anthropocentrism Good-bye 260
Multiplicity Confirmed 261
Emotional Reactions 261
Would There Be Panic? 264
Political Reactions 265
The Impact on Human Religions 266
Cosmotheology, and Cosmic Ethics 268
Religion and Politics 269
Some Assumptions Examined 271
Before Contact 272
Our Own Importance 272
Temporal Chauvinism 273
They Will Be Detectable 276
We Will Recognize Their Signs 278
They Live on Planets Orbiting Stars 280
They Search for Others 280
They Know We Are Here 282
They Want to Communicate 284
There Will Be Lighthouses in the Cosmic Night 286
SETI Scientists Will Make the Discovery 289
They Have Prepared for Contact 290
Assumptions: After Contact 291
The Message Will Be Comprehensible 291
They Will Speak Science 294
Parallelism and Synchrony 297
They Will Be Generous in Sharing Information 298
Everything Will Be Made Public 300
Their Knowledge Will Solve Our Problems 303
We Will Be Willing to Adopt Their Ideas 304
Contact Will Unify Humankind 304
Contact Will Bring Greater Stability 305
Their Utopia Will Be Good for Us 307
They Will Be Morally Superior 309
They Will Be Altruistic 311
They Speak as One 313
They Mean What They Say 314
They Will Treat Us Fairly 314
Technologically Advanced Means Benign 316
War Will Be Obsolete 320
Distance Protects Us 322
Expansion Will Be Relentless 324
Territory Is the Issue 325
The Galactic Club Exists 328
There Won’t Be Any Interstellar Politics 328
Interstellar Empires Do Not Exist 329
Warp Nine 334
The Biggest Assumption: Alien Intentions 334
The Drake Equation, Take Four 336
What Is Missing 337
Analyses of the Direct Contact Scenario 337
A Calculation of Risks and Benefits 337
Systematic Mirror Images 338
The Social Science Dimension 339
Forums for Discussion 342
Non-Western Perspectives 343
Intellectual Tolerance 343
Some Conclusions Drawn 345
Searching 345
Going Beyond the Evidence 347
Belief, Expectation, and Fact 347
The Value of Speculation 348
A Probable Scenario 349
Anticipated Consequences 350
The Key Factors 352
The Prime Question 352
Paradigm Shifts 355
Our Place in the Cosmos 355
Our Place in Time 356
Our Place Among Intelligent Beings 357
The Human Role 359
A Search for Purpose 359
A Destiny to Choose 360
Seeding the Galaxy with Life and Mind 360
Spreading Our Bets 361
An Extraterrestrial Paradigm 362
Reconnaissance 363
Expansion 364
An Extraterrestrial Ethos 366
The Moment of Truth 367
The Triumph of Mind 368
Annex: Preparing 370
Ready or Not 370
Principles, Protocols, and Declarations 371
Rating the Impact 375
Releasing the News 376
Sending Communications 377
Preparing Governments for Contact 378
Who Speaks for the Earth? 380
What Should We Say? 382
How Should We Say It? 384
Managing the Relationship 385
Toward a New Legal Order 386
Planetary Defense 387
Educating Ourselves for Contact 388
About the Author 389
References 390
Introduction 390
A Belief in Other Minds 391
A New Era 395
Searching for Intelligence 397
Sending Our Own Signals 401
Probabilities 403
Probabilities: The Astronomical Factors 403
Probabilities: Life 407
Probabilities: Intelligence 409
Probabilities: Civilization, Technology, and Science 413
Probabilities: Longevity 414
The Drake Equation, Take Two 418
Should We Continue the Search? 418
Direct Contact 420
The UFO Controversy 425
The Drake Equation: Take Three 428
Why Don’t We See Them? 428
Reformulating the Problem 431
Thinking Outside the Box 431
SETI and Religion 434
The Consequences of Contact 435
Hopes 437
Fears 439
Dangers 441
Mixed Emotions 442
Some Assumptions Examined 443
Before Contact 444
Assumptions: After Contact 447
What Is Missing 454
Some Conclusions Drawn 455
Paradigm Shifts 456
The Human Role 457
Annex: Preparing 458
Index 462

"The Drake Equation, Take Three (p. 162-163)

The Drake equation was derived from an assumed mode of contact: the detection of electromagnetic signals from very distant stars. It rested on the assumption that technological civilizations do not expand beyond their home systems. The density of such civilizations was determined by the number of separate evolutions to life and intelligence. The equation did not take into account the possibility of interstellar exploration, interstellar colonization, and direct contact.

That gap has been challenged forcefully. The Drake equation is wrong, Dyson argued, because it says that the number of extraterrestrial civilizations is equal to the number of independently originating civilizations. In fact, life spreads, diversi? es, and speciates. Any community of intelligent creatures adapted to living freely in the vacuum of space will spread and speciate in the Galaxy. One intelligent species let loose in space may become a million intelligent species within an astronomically short time.

Consequently, the Drake equation gives only a lower bound to the number of civilized societies.1 Shostak and Barnett, while defending conventional SETI, acknowledged that one star system could seed others if interstellar travel happens. The number of technological societies might be large even if the chance of evolving intelligence at one particular location is small.2 David Viewing of the British Interplanetary Society proposed a revised Drake equation in 1975, introducing factors representing the average number of colonies established by each independent civilization, and colonies established by the colonies.

Brin argued later that the equation needs three new factors when we introduce star travel: V—the velocity at which an interstellar culture grows into space, pausing to settle likely solar systems and rebuild necessary industry before again continuing its expansion L(z)—the lifetime of a zone of colonization into which a species has expanded, after which the settled region becomes fallow again A—an approach/avoidance factor, different for each culture, representing a “crosssection” for discovery by contemporary human civilization. This encompasses motivations to initiate or avoid contact, life-style variations, abandonment of radio for other technologies, and anything else that might cause an extraterrerstrial culture to be more or less observable.

At a minimum, the equation should include a factor for the probability that another technological civilization would engage in interstellar exploration, expansion, or colonization. This could have powerful implications. The factors in the traditional equation can be seen as ? lters that reduce the probability of contact with technological civilizations. Adding an expansion and colonization factor could greatly increase that probability by expanding the range of locations where technological societies may exist. Those most devoted to the classic SETI paradigm continue to resist including interstellar expansion in their calculations. One can see why; opening the door to a direct encounter raises the question of why we have not seen evidence of alien technology nearby. The direct contact scenario also has signi? cant implications for the possible consequences."