Adapting to an Uncertain Climate (eBook)

Foreword 10
Preface 12
Acknowledgements 14
Editors 16
List of Case-Study Authors 18
Contents 20
Chapter 1: Introduction to the Use of Uncertainties to Inform Adaptation Decisions 21
1.1 Why Is Guidance on the Role of Uncertainty Needed and Who Is it for? 22
1.1.1 Purpose of the Guidance 22
1.1.2 Who Should Be Using the Guidance? 23
1.1.3 Why Is the Guidance Needed? 24
1.2 Why Is it Important to Include Uncertainties in Adaptation Planning? 25
1.2.1 Why Cannot Decisions Wait Until Uncertainties are Resolved? 25
1.2.2 Why Is Considering Uncertainty Important? 26
1.2.3 How Can Uncertainty Be Managed? 27
1.3 What Information Is Included in This Book and Where Can I Find it? 28
1.4 How Can This Publication Be Used? 28
Suggested Reading 36
Online Resources 36
Chapter 2: Background on Uncertainty Assessment Supporting Climate Adaptation Decision-Making 37
2.1 Introduction 38
2.1.1 Climate Variability and Climate Change 41
2.1.2 Climate Variability, Climate Change, and Projections of Risks 41
2.1.3 Relationship Between the “Climate” and “Development” Communities 42
2.2 Uncertainties in Climate Change 42
2.3 Uncertainty Typology 43
2.3.1 Uncertainty Location 44
2.3.2 Uncertainty Level 45
2.3.3 Nature of Uncertainty 46
2.3.4 Qualification of the Knowledge Base 46
2.3.5 Value-Ladenness of Choices 47
2.4 Methods of Assessing Uncertainty 47
2.5 Decision-Making Frameworks Under Climate Change Uncertainty 48
2.5.1 Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches 49
Act on The Best Prediction 51
Robustness-Oriented Adaptation 51
Resilience-Oriented Adaptation 52
2.6 Using Uncertainty Assessment in Decision-Making Practice on Climate Adaptation 52
2.7 Cases, Types of Uncertainty, and Methods as Used in Chap. 4 54
2.8 Communicating Uncertainty Assessment to Policy- Makers and Decision-Makers 54
2.9 Conclusions 57
References 58
Chapter 3: How Is Uncertainty Addressed in the Knowledge Base for National Adaptation Planning? 61
3.1 Introduction 62
3.2 Overview of National Adaptation Activities 63
3.3 Consideration of Uncertainty in the Knowledge Base for Adaptation 66
3.3.1 Sources of Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections 68
Status 68
Time Horizon 68
Emissions Scenarios 72
Climate Models 72
Discussion 73
3.3.2 Communication of Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections 74
Comprehensiveness 74
Availability of Data and Maps 75
Uncertainty Communication in Graphs and Maps 75
Summary on Communication of Uncertainties in Climate Projections 75
3.3.3 Non-climatic Scenarios 76
3.3.4 Climate Impact, Vulnerability, and Risk Assessments 78
3.3.5 Guidance for Adaptation Planning Under Uncertainty 81
3.4 Conclusions 83
References 84
Chapter 4: Showcasing Practitioners’ Experiences 87
4.1 Introduction 88
4.2 Real Life Case Studies 92
4.2.1 Water Supply Management in Portugal 92
Key Messages 92
Background 92
Process 94
Uncertainty Assessment 96
Effect of Uncertainty on Decision–Making 97
4.2.2 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 98
Key Messages 99
Background 99
Process 101
Uncertainty Assessment 102
Effect of Uncertainty on Decision–Making 104
4.2.3 Water Resources Management in England and Wales 105
Key Messages 105
Background 105
Process 106
Uncertainty Assessment 108
Effect of Uncertainty on Decision–Making 110
4.2.4 Water Supply in Hungary 110
Key Messages 110
Background 111
Uncertainty Assessment 113
Effect of Uncertainty on Decision-Making 115
4.2.5 Climate Change and Health in The Netherlands 116
Key Messages 116
Background 116
Process 118
Uncertainty Assessment 118
Effect of Uncertainty on Decision–Making 121
4.2.6 Flood Risk in Ireland 122
Key Messages 122
Background 122
Process 123
Uncertainty Assessment 123
Effect of Uncertainty on Decision-Making 125
4.2.7 Coastal Flooding and Erosion in South West France 126
Key Message 127
Background 127
Process 127
Uncertainty Assessment 130
Effect of Uncertainty on Decision-Making 130
4.2.8 Québec Hydro-Electric Power 131
Key Messages 131
Background 132
Process 133
Uncertainty Assessment 134
Effect of Uncertainty on Decision–Making 135
4.2.9 Austrian Federal Railways 136
Key Messages 136
Background 136
Process 137
Uncertainty Assessment 139
Effect of Uncertainty on Decision–Making 140
4.2.10 Dresden Public Transport 140
Key Messages 141
Background 141
Process 142
Uncertainty Assessment 144
Effect of Uncertainty on Decision-Making 144
4.2.11 Hutt River Flood Management 146
Key Messages 146
Background 147
Process 148
Uncertainty Assessment 149
Effect of Uncertainty on Decision-Making 150
4.2.12 Communication of Large Numbers of Climate Scenarios in Dutch Climate Adaptation Workshops 152
Key Messages 152
Background 152
Process 153
Uncertainty Assessment 155
Effect of Uncertainty on Decision–Making 156
Chapter 5: Making Adaptation Decisions Under Uncertainty: Lessons from Theory and Practice 158
5.1 Introduction 159
5.2 A New Support Framework for Adaptation Decisions Under Uncertainty 161
5.2.1 Decision-Objectives 163
5.2.2 Decision-Support 164
5.2.3 Decision-Making 166
5.2.4 Decision-Outcomes 167
5.3 What Has Practice Shown Us? 168
5.4 Dealing with Uncertainty in Adaptation Decision-Making 168
5.5 Guidance and Recommendations 174
5.5.1 Adaptation Objectives 175
5.5.2 Decision Support: Uncertainties, Methods and Communication 176
5.5.3 Decision-Making and Its Outcomes 178
5.6 Final Remarks 179
References 180
Key Terms 182
References 189
Book Reviewers 191
Chapter 1 Reviewers 191
Chapter 2 Reviewers 192
Chapter 3 Reviewers 193
Chapter 4 Reviewers 194
Chapter 5 Reviewers 195
Key Terms Reviewers 195
Index 197