Uncertain Judgements (eBook)

Professor Anthony O'Hagan is the Director of The Centre for Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics at the University of Sheffield. The Centre is a collaboration between the Department of Probability and Statistics and the School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR). The Department of Probability and Statistics is internationally respected for its research in Bayesian statistics, while ScHARR is one of the leading UK centres for economic evaluation. Prof O'Hagan is an internationally leading expert in Bayesian Statistics. Co-authors: Professor Paul Gathwaite - Open University, Prof of Statistics, Maths and Computing Dr Jeremy Oakley - Sheffield University Professor John Brazier - Director of Health Economics Group, University of Sheffield Dr Tim Rakow - University of Essex, Psychology Department Dr Alireza Daneshkhah - University of Sheffield, Medical Statistics Department Dr Jim Chilcott - School of Health Research, University of Sheffield, Department of OR

Preface.

1. Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement.

1.1 Introduction.

1.2 Probability and elicitation.

1.3 Uncertainty and the interpretation of probability.

1.4 Elicitation and the psychology of judgement.

1.5 What use are such judgements?

1.6 Conclusions.

2. The Elicitation Context.

2.1 How and who?

2.2 What is an expert?

2.3 The elicitation process.

2.4 Conventions in Chapters 3 to 9.

2.5 Conclusions.

3. The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty.

3.1 Introduction.

3.2 Understanding the task and the expert.

3.3 Understanding research on human judgement.

3.4 The heuristic and biases research programme. 3.4.6 Theaffect heuristic.

3.5 Experts and expertise.

3.6 Three meta theories of judgement.

3.7 Conclusions.

4. The Elicitation of Probabilities.

4.1 Introduction.

4.2 The Calibration of Subjective Probabilities.

4.3 The calibration in subjective probabilities: theories andexplanations.

4.4 Representations and methods.

4.5 Debiasing.

4.6 Conclusions.

5. Eliciting Distributions - General.

5.1 From probabilities to distributions.

5.2 Eliciting univariate distributions.

5.3 Eliciting multivariate distributions.

5.4 Uncertainty and imprecision.

5.5 Conclusions.

6. Eliciting and Fitting a Parametric Distribution.

6.1 Introduction.

6.2 Outline of this chapter.

6.3 Eliciting opinion about a proportion.

6.4 Eliciting opinion about a general scalar quantity.

6.5 Eliciting opinion about a set of proportions.

6.6 Eliciting opinion about the parameters of amultivariate normal distribution.

6.7 Eliciting opinion about the parameters of a linearregression model.

6.8 Eliciting opinion about the parameters of a generalizedlinear model.

6.9 Elicitation methods for other problems.

6.10 Deficiencies in existing research.

6.11 Conclusions.

7. Eliciting Distributions - Uncertainty andImprecision.

7.1 Introduction.

7.2 Imprecise probabilities.

7.3 Incomplete information.

7.4 Summary.

7.5 Conclusions.

8. Evaluating Elicitation.

8.1 Introduction.

8.2 Scoring rules.

8.3 Coherence, feedback and overfitting.

8.4 Conclusions.

9. Multiple Experts.

9.1 Introduction.

9.2 Mathematical aggregation.

9.3 Behavioural aggregation.

9.4 Discussion.

9.5 Elicitation practice.

9.6 Research questions.

10. Published Examples of the Formal Elicitation of ExpertOpinion.

10.1 Some applications.

10.2 An example of an elicitation interview - eliciting enginesales.

10.3 Medicine.

10.4 The nuclear industry.

10.5 Veterinary science.

10.6 Agriculture.

10.7 Meteorology.

10.8 Business studies, economics and finance.

10.9 Other professions.

10.10 Other examples of the elicitation of subjectiveprobabilities.

11. Guidance on Best Practice.

12. Areas for Research.

Glossary.

Bibliography.

Author Index.

Index.

"This book, written by a group of expert statisticians and
psychologists, provides an introduction to the subject and a
detailed overview of the existing literature. The book guides the
reader through the design of an elicitation method and details
examples from a cross section of literature in the statistics,
psychology, engineering and health sciences
disciplines." (Zentralblatt Math, 1 August
2013)

"This is an interesting, well-written book that will be valuable
to any decision maker who much rely on expert judgments, any
statistician who uses Bayesian statistics, and any researcher who
wishes to understand the field of elicitation." (Journal of the
American Statistical Association, March 2009)

"This book provides an excellent introduction and working
reference to the subject of its title and should be an invaluable
aid to producers and consumers of expert opinion."
(Biometrics, September 2008)

"I recommend 'Uncertain Judgements' as an excellent source for a
wide variety of research." (Psychometrika, March 2008)

"...will be of interest to those who are concerned
with or interested primarily in the practicalities of modeling
expert judgement and opinion." (International Journal of
Marketing, January 2007)